by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Well the eurozone outlook is certainly deteriorating less rapidly at this point than it was, at least this is the impression given by the May flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) - which show the pace of economic contraction slowing markedly from April. PMI readings for the 16-country euro area rose significantly this month, and hit their highest level for the last eight. It is, however, important to bear in mind that the index still registered contracting economic activity, even if the rate of decline fell for a third consecutive month. Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, who compile the indexes, said the latest readings were consistent with second quarter GDP falling about 0.5 per cent quarter on quarter (or by a 2% annual rate), well down from the 2.5% quarter on quarter GDP outcome (or 10% annual rate) in the first three months of the ...

Eurozone manufacturing and services sectors continued to contract in April, but the rate of decline continued to slow, according to the latest flash readings from the monthly surveys of purchasing managers. The preliminary Markit euro-zone PMI rose to 40.5 from a reading of 38.3 in March, a six-month high. The April services PMI rose to 43.1 from 40.9 in March, exceeding forecasts for a reading of 41.2. April manufacturing PMI rose to 43.1 from 33.9 in March, while expectations were for a reading of 41.2. A figure of less than 50 means a majority of purchasing managers saw a drop in activity, while a reading of more than 50 signals expansion.br /br /br /pa href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SfA3aBFMQZI/AAAAAAAANlY/PkhmfyQQxr0/s1600-h/eurozone+composite+PMI.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5327819279285633426" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SfA3aBFMQZI/AAAAAAAANlY/PkhmfyQQxr0/s400/eurozone+composite+PMI.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /strongGermany/strongbr /br /Activity in German manufacturers and service sector firms dropped for an eighth ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The performance of the worldwide manufacturing sector remained very weak in February. Although the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose further from December's record low, at 35.8 it was still well below the critical no-change mark of 50.0. Rates of decline eased for production and new orders, but accelerated to reach a new survey record for employment.br /blockquote"The PMI edged higher for a second successive month in February. The data are still pointing to marked declines in output and new orders, but the gains in these indexes indicate that the rate of contraction has begun to ease in global industry. Production cuts are likely to remain deep near-term while companies reduce inventory." David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan/blockquotebr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s1600-h/global+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308651429277926002" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s400/global+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /Employment declined ...

Germany's economy continued to contract in January, and even more rapidly (slightly) than in December, according to the latest flash estimates for the Markit PMI. br /br /br /The estimates showed that the composite Markit purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 38.0 from December's final 39.5 reading. Any reading below 50 means contraction from one month to the next, so what this means is that the German economy was contracting more rapidly in January. Taken together, the surveys of the manufacturing and service sector showed business activity shrinking at its fastest pace since the composite PMI series began in January 1998. A 38 reading on the monthly PMI is probably equivalent to something in the order of a 10% annual rate of GDP contraction (or a 2.5% quarter on quarter drop), which is, well, massive. Nor does this seem unreasonable, since on initial estimates it seems that German GDP contracted ...

From the FT today:

Survey underlines grim outlook for eurozone

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt, Published: October 24 2008 11:23 | Last updated: October 24 2008 18:37

The eurozone economy contracted sharply in October as the global bank crisis slammed the brakes on business activity and blackened the outlook for the 15-country region, a closely watched survey indicated on Friday.

The steep fall in eurozone purchasing managers' indices, which showed private-sector output falling at the fastest rate since the launch of the euro in 1999, suggested the region was facing prolonged recession-like conditions, which could last well into next year.

But economists warned that the full effects of tighter credit conditions on business and consumers may have yet to feed through, and that expected cuts in European Central Bank interest rates could fail to revive growth.

The "composite" purchasing managers' index, covering manufacturing and services, slumped from 46.9 in September to 44.6 in October,

...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona“The latest flash PMI indicates the alarming extent to which the financial crisis has developed rapidly into an economic crisis, with the Eurozone economy contracting at the fastest rate for over ten years in October. Manufacturers are the hardest hit, with the sector contracting at a pace exceeding even the most pessimistic of forecasts polled by Reuters.Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit.

The eurozone economy continued the contractaction registered in the third quarter in October at a speed not seen since the start of the euro in 1999, with the kock-on effects of the global bank crisis hitting manufacturing industry especially hard, and making a huge dent in industry’s order books.These are the grim conclusions which can be drawn from the latest - Flash - Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) readings for the economies of 15-country currency zone. The low readings registered are provisional, but experience

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by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaIs the first zone wide recession in the short history of the eurozone about to be registered? Certainly the flash PMI estimates for August give the impression that it might. The Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's composite index came in at 48 after 47.8 reading in July. Any result under 50 indicates contraction. Unfortunately we only get flash estimate breakdowns for France and Germany, but it isn't that difficult to deduce from the composite number that Spain and Italy continue to contract - although given that the composite rebounded slightly, while both services and manufacturing slowed in Germany, and in France manufacturing contracted more sharply in July while the contraction eased a bit in services, then it may be that Spain and Italy weren't contracting quite so strongly in August as they were in July.GermanyThe German manufacturing index fell ...

The Ifo institute's German business confidence index dropped 3.7 points from a month earlier to 97.5 in July. This is the lowest in three years, and the biggest one month drop since after the 11 September terrorist attacks. Meanwhile manufacturing and services across the euro area contracted for a second month in July according to the latest PMI flash estimate, with the reading sliding more sharply than expected in July to 47.8 points from 49.3. This was well below expectations which had been for a decline to 48.7, and it was in fact the lowest reading since November 2001. Ifo indexes measuring current conditions and expectations also fell sharply. The July current conditions index declined to 105.7 from 108.3 in June, below the consensus forecast for a drop to 106.2. The expectations index, which measures sentiment about prospects in the ...