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[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]

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The Solar Industry Puzzle is Missing a Few Pieces

Andrew Snyder (June 16th, 2009) Writes:

The solar industry is taking a hit as Washington moves on to fight battles on Wall Street and in the healthcare sector. Many solar investors are wondering what happened. Is there still time to cash in your profits?

Hype helps and hype hurts. It is time to get ready for the pain.

After months of waiting for Obama’s “golden touch” to save Wall Street and the world, sentiment is turning against him and his plans.

The market is reacting sharply to the President’s moves today.

Investors woke to news of major Wall Street reforms coming later this week. As Washington tightens the screws on runaway prosperity, the average investor had better be prepared for less-than-stellar gains.

For my thoughts on the administration’s tweaking of the risk/reward system, see my earlier article.

But Obama likes to spread his attacks on multiple fronts. A divided enemy, he feels, is easier to defeat. By creating a buzz about

...

Cowen’s Rob Stone Comments on Solar Sector – Cuts Estimates on Further ASP Erosion

Small Cap Pulse (April 6th, 2009) Writes:
April 6, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in on the solar sector industryrsquo;s outlook this morning cutting estimates again across his solar coverage on further erosion in ASPs, noting that Q1 results could put some pressure on the group. As he noted, this shouldnrsquo;t be too much of a surprise to anyone, as prices have been on a steady decline over the past few quarters. Stone accordingly made adjustments on all companies he is following including: Key Takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Spot prices on poly have fallen to $80-$100/kg while wafers are about $1.20/watt. Module prices are $2.60 -$2.80, and Stone thinks prices could fall another 5% in Q2. Expect another round of inventory write-downs; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Climate Bill which could include a national renewable electricity standard of as much as 25% by 2025 could be a catalyst for solar, but it could take a while to ...

Cowen’s Rob Stone Maintains Neutral on China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN)

Small Cap Pulse (March 20th, 2009) Writes:
March 20, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone maintained his NEUTRAL rating on China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN) this morning, ldquo;based on tough comparables and limited visibility.rdquo; Financial ResultsYesterday, China Sunergy reported a 39.6% Y/Y increase in Q4 revenues to $43.2 million, on shipments of 14.1MW (production was 20.1MW) at $2.97 per watt, and a net loss of $26.7 million, or 0.42 per ADS. For the FY08, revenues increase Y/Y by 49.4% to $350.9 million, gross margin of 4.4%, and a net loss of $22.4 million, or $0.57 per ADS. Production for the year was 110MW of cells, and shipments were 107.2MW. nbsp;Blended ASP per watt for the year was $3.32. Management said while the first quarter hasnrsquo;t been encouraging for a near-term recovery, it expects an improvement over Q4. Stonersquo;s Takeawaysmiddot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Cutting FY09/10E revenue to $245M and $330M, with expected loss of $0.07/ADS and earnings of $0.58 ...

Cowen’s Rob Stone Cuts Estimates on Solar Companies

Small Cap Pulse (January 12th, 2009) Writes:
January 12, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in this morning on Suntech (NYSE:STP), First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR), Energy Conversion Devices (Nassaq:ENER), China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN), Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL), SunPower (Nasdaq:SPRWA) and Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq:ESLR). The common theme to Stonersquo;s comments is lowering global demand and cutting estimates across his universe of solar coverage. Here are some of his key takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Suntech ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments to 630MW and 930MW (down from prior 750MW and 1,175MW); trimming ASPs to $3.05 and $2.75 respectively; reducing revenue targets; cutting gross margin and cutting EPS. Maintains OUTPERFORM. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; First Solar ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments to 917MW and 1,365MW (down from prior 1,045 and 1,522); trimming 2010 ASPs to euro;1.39; reducing revenue targets and reducing EPS. Maintains OUTPERFORM. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Energy Conversion Devices ndash; lowering estimates, 2009/10E shipments of 146MW and 254MW (down from prior 151MW and 278MW); trimming ...

Analyst Notes: Cowen’s Rob Stone Weighs in on China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN) – ASP Erosion

Small Cap Pulse (November 26th, 2008) Writes:
November 26, 2008 ndash; Analyst Notes ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone cut estimates this morning on China Sunergy (Nasdaq:CSUN), based on lower estimates and ASPs. He is forecasting a loss for Q4. On the positive side, he said margins in 209 should benefit from price declines in spot material costs, improved wafer quality and higher efficiency cells. Stone is maintaining a NEUTRAL rating on CSUN. China Sunergy reported Q3 revenues this week of $199 million, an increase of 142.9% Y/Y and a 6.6% increase over the previous quarter. Gross margins were unimpressive, at 9.3% for Q3, and net income was $2 million, compared to a net loss of $4.3 million for the same period last year, and net income of $4 million in the previous quarter. Management acknowledged that the market conditions have been deteriorating which has results in some canceled orders, and ASP erosion. It said further that ...

Analyst Notes: Cowen’s Rob Stone Weighs in on Suntech (NYSE:STP)

Small Cap Pulse (November 20th, 2008) Writes:
November 20, 2008 ndash; Analyst Notes ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Robert Stone issued comments this morning on Suntech (NYSE:STP) on the heels of its Q3 EPS miss by 21%. Stone said Suntechrsquo;s revenue is being hurt by steep ASP erosion due to the weaker euro, but added that the company has shifted to a capital preservation mode and liquidity should not be an issue. Other key takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Believes STP remains a long-term leader in PV middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Given uncertain outlook we may see further weakness in the stock (book value is $6.12) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Roughly half the comparable companies in the midstream solar space are trading at 1.1x book or below Midstream Solar Comparables (as of yesterdayrsquo;s close) middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) trading at 6x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Ersol Solar (ES6.DE) trading at 4.2x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA) trading at 2.1x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; REC (REC.OL) trading at 1.8x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; LDK (NYSE:LDK) trading at 1.6x book middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Energy Conversion ...

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