China's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2005, handing more ammunition to Chinese officials calling for reduced gains by the yuan as the export outlook dims. Gross domestic product rose 10.1 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from 10.6 percent in the first, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. Consumer prices rose 7.1 percent in June, slowing from 7.7 percent in May. The yuan had the biggest drop in seven weeks on speculation China's leaders will slow its advance to protect jobs at exporters after a 7 percent increase against the dollar this year. The Ministry of Commerce has urged China's cabinet to rein in currency gains and raise some export rebates, a ministry official said July 14, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The performance of the export sector could influence the government's ...

CHINA’S economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a study released today by a US research organisation concluded.

The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China’s rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, and will sustain high single-digit growth rates well into the 21st century.

“China’s economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan,” Mr Keidel said.

“Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 per cent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century, unfettered by world market limitation.”

Mr Keidel said the rise of China to the world’s biggest economy will happen regardless of the method of calculation.

Under current market-based

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by James Hamilton Could the phenomenal growth train get derailed? I remember my colleague Clive Granger telling me over a year ago about the conversations he had with people when traveling China. Everyone he spoke with seemed to believe that (1) the Chinese stock market was at that time experiencing a bubble that was going to burst, and (2) the crash would not come until after the 2008 Olympics. Clive expressed amusement that no one seemed to have worked backwards from this presumed equilibrium-- if you know the market is going to crash in August 2008, anybody with any sense would sell in July. And if there's heavy selling volume in July, the market's heading down, not up at that point, so the logical thing to do is to get out in June. But if the crash is going to begin in June, then what ...