The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) -- one of the precursors to the ISM reports that will be released tomorrow (manufacturing) and next week (services) -- fell to 46.1% in September from 50.0% in August. The report covers both manufacturing and service businesses. The magic number separating expansion from contraction is 50.0%. The Chicago report is a big disappointment after similar readings from the New York and Philadelphia regions showed unexpected improvements. The consensus expectation was that the Chicago reading would come in at 52.0%. This puts the current expectations that the ISM manufacturing number will come in at 54.0 in substantial doubt. In August the reading was 52.9, and that was a key piece of evidence that the economy was on the mend. I did not see what the expectations are for the services number, and lately manufacturing has been doing better than services. If ...

Gold rose above $942 per ounce on Monday, strengthening as the dollar turned lower against six major currencies with slight caution toward riskier assets also proving supportive.

Gold was at $941.75 per ounce at 1256 GMT, up from $938.05 quoted late in New York on Friday. The precious metal earlier hit an intra-day high at $942.50 but is some way off a two week high of $948.20 hit last Friday.

A cautious approach to risk kept global stock market gains in check, while crude held under $70 per barrel following a bearish report on demand from the IEA, sapping gold’s appeal as a hedge against oil-induced inflation.

Analysts said the precious metal was holding onto gains but lacking upward momentum as currency markets would be indecisive until U.S. non-farm payroll data was released on Thursday.

“The dollar is going to be critical, and as long as it continues to weaken that tends to mean that gold

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Geithner Calls For Regulatory Reform; Fed President Sees 2009 Rebound; Bank of China Posts 59% 4Q Profit Drop; Goldman Plans to Repay TARP money quickly; U.K. Inflation up 3.2% in February; Major Exchanges Want New Curbs on Short-Selling; Lloyd’s Says Insurance Rates to Rise; Copper Prices Take Breather After Rising 30% on China Demand; Mexico’s Inflation Holds Up Rate Cut

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. regulatory system must impose constraints on companies using risky strategies that could cause them to collapse, posing danger to the financial system. In prepared testimony for the House Financial Services Committee, Geithner said rules must be in place to keep companies from causing “grave damage” to the economy, citing the failure to rein in excesses at American International Group Inc. (AIG) and other companies. Chicago Federal Reserve President ...