This morning, ADP (ADP), the nation’s largest payroll processing firm, released its estimate of job losses in August. They came in at a decline of 298,000 jobs for the private sector. This is significantly worse than the consensus expectations of a decline of 250,000. There was a little bit of good news in the report in that this is still an improvement over the 360,000 lost in July -- a number that was revised from an original read of 371,000 jobs lost. The losses in August were almost evenly split between the Goods Producing Sector (Construction & Manufacturing), which lost 152,000 jobs, and the Service sector, which dropped 146,000. By size of business, the big firms are holding up best with a decline of 60,000. Medium-sized firms (between 50 and 499 employees) shed 116,000 jobs while small businesses slashed their payrolls by 122,000. Even the Auto industry, ...

With the Rally Nearly Over the Germans are Buying Gold.

The Dow fell another 107 points yesterday. Oil held steady at $70. The dollar fell to $1.38. And gold rose $4 to 932.

What if the rally is over? Could be… It began on 9 March. That makes it more than 3 months old. Most likely, it will continue through the summer. But who knows?

The important thing to remember is this: there can be no major, sustained bull market without one of two things happening.

Either… the mistakes of the Bubble Epoque must be cleared away… allowing for a new era of genuine growth and real prosperity. At best, this would take a few years to achieve. Just imagine how long it will take to restructure GM into a profit-making business again. Just imagine how long it will take consumers to pay down their debts so they can begin to spend again. Just

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The U.S. private sector cut a record 742,000 jobs in March, higher than analysts’ expectations and a leap from the upwardly revised 706,000 jobs cut in February, according to a report from ADP Employer Services. The report is based on data from about 400,000 businesses with an estimated 24 million people on payroll. According to the ADP’s report, businesses with more than 499 employees shed 128,000 jobs. Companies with 50 to 499 workers slashed 330,000 workers from their payrolls. And small businesses cut 284,000 jobs. One of the biggest losses came from International Business Corp. (IBM), which cut up to 5,000 jobs last week, a source told Bloomberg. And Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) said last week that it will close an Oklahoma plant and cut 580 jobs there. Another report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said that the ...

The U.S. unemployment rate, currently at a level of 6.5%, could rise to 8% next year. But it could also find a ceiling sooner than expected, as more companies implement unpaid vacations and four-day workweeks to preserve jobs.

The U.S. recession may just now be entering full swing, but storm clouds have been gathering for more than a year and many companies have already trimmed payrolls. Now, the goal for many companies is to prepare for an economic rebound by finding ways to keep the their skilled productive labor intact.

“More companies are exploring alternatives to layoffs,” John A. Challenger, chief executive of consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, told BusinessWeek. “If they can keep people on until the business turns around, the company would be in much better shape to ramp up quickly.”

Dell Inc. (DELL) employees, for instance, recently received a memo

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Job losses spiked in October according to two key employment reports released yesterday (Wednesday).  The rate of unemployment has risen steadily over the past year but job losses expanded in both size and scope in October and will likely continue to accelerate well into 2009, further exacerbating an already potent economic downturn.

Private U.S. companies cut an estimated 157,000 jobs in October, the largest decline in nearly six years, ADP Employer Services said yesterday (Wednesday). Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said job cut announcements by U.S. employers soared to 112,884 in October – a 79% increase from last year.

“We are starting to see more recession-like declines in employment,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told Bloomberg News. “The loss of jobs means consumers will continue to retrench in the next couple of quarters.”

The ADP

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Some more news on the economic front this morning ...* Mortgage applications plunged in the week ended September 26, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The purchase index dropped 10.9% from the previous week, while the refinance index tanked 34.7%. At 304.8, the purchase index is the lowest since February 2002. Interest rates were relatively stable (6.07% on the 30-year, down slightly from 6.09% a week earlier).* The outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 95,094 job cut announcements in September, up 7.2% from August and up 32.6% from a year earlier. Computer firms led the list of announced cuts at about 25,700 in September. Automotive companies were next at just under 15,000, with apparel (8,350) and financial firms (8,244) next.* On the other hand, the ADP Employment report was less negative than expected. It showed the economy losing just 8,000 jobs

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