The base metals were mixed on Friday. Copper fell from the pre-dawn hours to the New York open, but rallied from there, regaining much of the lost ground though it failed to break even, finishing at $1.893/lb., down 4 1/3 cents.

Nickel briefly dropped below $5 during the pre-dawn hours, but pushed higher through most of the day, closing at $5.4817/lb., up nearly 24 cents. Zinc zigged and zagged to little ultimate effect, ending at $0.4876/lb., down less than a half-cent. Aluminum lost ground, shedding more than a penny, to $0.907/lb., while lead was strong, adding almost 2½ cents, to $0.6864/lb.

In a mixed day for the industrial metals, copper finished up its worst month in thirty years, losing 36% in October on concerns about the slowing global economy. No one is giving it much of a chance for a rebound anytime soon, either.

“The outlook for demand doesn’t look

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In the energy market Friday, oil moved higher, with crude for December delivery closing at $67.81/barrel, up $1.85. November reformulated gasoline fell 2.57 cents, to $1.4413/gallon.

Thus ended a record-setting month, with crude’s front-month contract plunging by 32.6%, the biggest monthly decline recorded on the Nymex since trading began in 1983.

“The oil market had the biggest change of heart since the tin man in the Wizard of Oz,” said Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading.

And Charles Perry, president of Perry Management, could only comment that, “I think we are all hoping for a more stable market in November, particularly after the election is over.”

Looking ahead, “Demand-side concerns are going to keep oil under pressure and we should find out soon just what price the Saudis want to defend,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “Clearly, we are below the level that the price hawks, such as

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Gold sank in the overseas markets, rallied back into positive territory by mid-morning Friday, but made its high for the day there, as it declined for the rest of the Comex before steadying through the Globex and finishing at $723.70, down $12.00. For the week, gold was off 1.5%.

Platinum bottomed near $770 in late Hong Kong trading, but moved gradually higher through most of the rest of the day, ending at $819/oz., down $7. For the week, platinum gained 3%.

Silver also hit its low late in Hong Kong, and it too pushed steadily higher, making it back into positive territory to close at $9.86/oz., up 13 cents. For the week, silver tacked on 5.2%. (Click here for charts)

While silver had a decent day, gold turned in yet another lackluster performance, ending October with a loss of 18%, the largest monthly decline for the metal in 28 years.

Gold

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Key News• The European Commission said the region's economy probably entered a recession this year and will stagnate in 2009. (Bloomberg)Key Reports Due (WSJ):  10:00a.m. Sep Construction Spending: Expected: -0.7%. Previous: Unch. 10:00a.m. Oct ISM Manufacturing Business Index: Expected: 41.5. Previous: 43.5.

Quotable “Historically, economists have evaluated the economy’s overall leverage in terms of nonfinancial debt. The theory for this is that the financial sector takes on debt in order to make loans for the nonfinancial sector; thus, to include financial debt would result in double counting. The logic of that approach is not valid in the current situation. The leverage in the financial system, including the financial intermediaries and government sponsored entities like Fannie and Freddie, is clearly excessive and the source of much distress in the economy. When viewed on this more comprehensive basis, total leverage of the U.S. economy surged to an

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Key News• The European Commission said the region's economy probably entered a recession this year and will stagnate in 2009. (Bloomberg)Key Reports Due (WSJ):  10:00a.m. Sep Construction Spending: Expected: -0.7%. Previous: Unch. 10:00a.m. Oct ISM Manufacturing Business Index: Expected: 41.5. Previous: 43.5.

Quotable “Historically, economists have evaluated the economy’s overall leverage in terms of nonfinancial debt. The theory for this is that the financial sector takes on debt in order to make loans for the nonfinancial sector; thus, to include financial debt would result in double counting. The logic of that approach is not valid in the current situation. The leverage in the financial system, including the financial intermediaries and government sponsored entities like Fannie and Freddie, is clearly excessive and the source of much distress in the economy. When viewed on this more comprehensive basis, total leverage of the U.S. economy surged to an

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Stock dividends are in jeopardy on multiple fronts.  This is not good news for equity income investors or the US stock market overall.  Four forces are converging on and against US dividends:

Companies are cutting dividends or not raising them Tax trap in existing dividend tax rules Congress will legislate higher dividend taxes after 2008 Possible legislative mandate for TARP participants to suspend dividends.

The delicate condition of investor psychology, the simple math of dividends as part of total return, and the comparative yield opportunities in developed foreign markets, suggest that declining dividends would depress US stock prices.

Implications:

If US stock (SPY, IVV) dividends decline, bonds (AGG, IEF, MUB) would become relatively more attractive.  Foreign developed market stocks (EFA, VEA) would become relatively more attractive.

Simply put, US stock prices would decline.

Dividend oriented funds (DVY, VIG, SDY) would possibly suffer most. Foreign developed market dividend focused funds (IDV, DWM) would possibly be more attractive than US dividend

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Consumer shows spooky signs of weakness… recession now unavoidable? How’s your 401(k)? Some scary stats on the average retirement savings plan. Haunting mortgage data… 10 million Americans suffer “negative equity”. U.S. finance capitalism dead or dying… Byron King on the new paradigm for global economic power. Eric Fry on investing during the post-crash bounce. Plus, one “surefire” sector during these frightening times.

Boo!

We begin today with a Halloween hypothetical: If you’re a mainstream economist or financial journalist, what’s the scariest possible scenario that could arise from an economic crisis?

Answer: That the ephemeral specter of the American consumer, whose purchases now make up over 70% of economic activity in I.O.U.S.A., would stop spending.

Uh-ho. In the third quarter

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AmEx Cuts 7,000 Jobs; Oil Down on GDP; Governors Lobby Gov. on Auto Industry; Motorola Downsizes; Kodak Results Less Than Picture Perfect; Waste Management Recession Resistant

American Express Co. (AXP) said yesterday (Thursday) that it plans to cut 7,000 jobs, or 10% of its global work force, in an effort to reduce costs by $1.8 billion in next year, The Associated Press reported. The company will also suspend management-level salary increases next year and institute a hiring freeze. American Express has reported four straight quarters of profit declines. Oil prices fell more than 2% yesterday (Thursday), after economic data showed a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Light, sweet crude fell $1.54 at settle $65.96 a barrel, after trading as high as $70.60 earlier in the day. Oil is down 55% from the record high $147.27 a barrel reached in July. It is down 30% in ...

AmEx Cuts 7,000 Jobs; Oil Down on GDP; Governors Lobby Gov. on Auto Industry; Motorola Downsizes; Kodak Results Less Than Picture Perfect; Waste Management Recession Resistant

American Express Co. (AXP) said yesterday (Thursday) that it plans to cut 7,000 jobs, or 10% of its global work force, in an effort to reduce costs by $1.8 billion in next year, The Associated Press reported. The company will also suspend management-level salary increases next year and institute a hiring freeze. American Express has reported four straight quarters of profit declines. Oil prices fell more than 2% yesterday (Thursday), after economic data showed a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Light, sweet crude fell $1.54 at settle $65.96 a barrel, after trading as high as $70.60 earlier in the day. Oil is down 55% from the record high $147.27 a barrel reached in July. It is down 30% in ...

One of the granddaddies of Silicon Valley, Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ:JAVA) may finally have to give up the good fight - presenting investors with the prospects of a quick profit grab.

Although not quite in the pantheon of Intel, Apple and Seagate, Sun has been braving its own path in technology since its founding in 1982. The paradox is that a company which professed a radical departure in business computing has itself been too slow to adapt to rapid change, and now finds itself as takeover prey.

With assets far exceeding its current valuation, investors stand to make modest gains if the company decides to break itself up, or if it finally succumbs to the takeover rumors circulating for years.

The alarm sounded louder than ever when the company report Q1 2008 earnings. A $1.68 billion loss was attributed to a slowdown in technology,

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