The October edition of the Reuters South African Survey of Economists has just been published. (The Reuters Econometer is a measure of economic sentiment drawn from a monthly poll of forecasts by leading economists in South Africa and abroad and presented in the form an index). The weightings used in the index are: GDP growth - 25%; CPIX inflation - 20%; Producer Price Inflation - 5%; Prime Interest Rate - 20%; 10-year bond yield - 5%; Rand-Dollar Depreciation - 25%.

The Reuters Econometer fell for a third consecutive month in October, falling to 235,60, its lowest level since September last year. Confidence in SA’s economy fell as demand and manufacturing capacity is seen taking longer to improve, as a result of the looming increase in power tariffs, which is expected to further

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It is indeed an old adage that while goods things are to be preferred over bad things it is possible to get too much of the former. Looking at recent comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia it is not difficult to imagine how these, albeit old and worn, pearls of wisdom may well have inspired Mr. Stevens in his effort to tiptoe the thigthrope between signalling the intention to raise rates into an expected economic recovery on the one side and trying to prevent the Aussie shoot of on helium into the sun with wings of wax on the other.

(quote Bloomberg)

Australia’s central bank Governor Glenn Stevens signaled a surge in the nation’s currency to near parity with the U.S. dollar has given him scope to slow the pace of future

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I argued the bull case for gold in my posts over the past few months (see “Gold bullion - regaining its shine?“, “Gold bullion glitters bright” and “Gold bullion - challenging $1,000“. With the gold price scaling fresh peaks and closing in on $1,100, it would certainly seem as if renewed interest in the yellow metal is being stirred up, especially subsequent to the purchase by India’s central bank of 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.

As printing presses are running at full speed to produce ever-increasing quantities of fiat money as governments engineer the greatest asset price reflation in human history - and the US greenback is heading South - the longer-term fundamental case for the yellow metal is arguably positive.

“The gold bug has caught several big hedge fund managers this year including John Paulson of Paulson & Company, Kyle

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Winter is upon us, and the last couple of days have seen rumors rumbling about the possibility of another gas interruption - due to payment problems at Ukraine's end.  It is alleged that Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko alerted Vladimir Putin to the fact that President Viktor Yushchenko was impeding 'the normal partnership between the Central Bank, which had the gold reserves at disposal, and the government', thus jeopardizing payment.The good news for those in Europe looking forward to a toasty winter is that analysts are suggesting that this talk is more hot air fueled by political rivalry between Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko (who will race each other ,along with Victor Yanukovych, to the post of ...

The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.

US: Employment, autos, rates

Jobless numbers, auto-sales figures and an FOMC meeting are due in the first week of November. Then there’s the progress of the health-care overhaul in Washington and more.

Europe: BOE meeting, UBS results

The Bank of England may take steps to buy up to 50 billion pounds more of assets on Thursday to help the UK escape recession. Earnings are due from UBS, BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Total, Adidas and Deutsche Telekom among many others.

Asia: Carmakers in focus

Toyota, the world’s largest carmaker by sales, and

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Mackenzie, Saskia Scholtes and Aline van Duyn (Financial Times): Trepidation as Fed prepares to end easing, October 29, 2009. As the Federal Reserve’s programme of buying mortgage debt edges towards $1,000 billion this week, investors are starting to worry about what happens once the central bank starts to slow down and exit from this key plank of its monetary easing policy.

• Quint Tatro (Minyanvile): Seven lessons from a legend, October 29, 2009. Jesse Livermore was wealthy and broke several times over during his tumultuous life, which ended in his suicide. His ability to make and lose millions garnered him many lessons which the trading community have enshrined over the decades since his death. Yet these lessons and

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A spectre is haunting Europe, but this time it is not the spectre of revolt by the popular masses, or even one of yet another wave of bank bailouts. No, the spectre which is currently stalking the corridors of Europe's most prestigous institutions is one of a Spanish economy which stays on a flatline while Europe's other economies, one by one, start to struggle back to life. And the main reason that this particular ghostly image is giving everyone so many sleepless nights is because Europe's current institutional structures, and especially the monetary policy tools available at the ECB are scarcely prepared for such a nighmare eventuality.br /br /br /strongFrance Is Recovering, And The Rebound Is Robust/strongbr /br /First it was just a rumour, then it was a possibility, and now it has become a reality - some of Europe’s economies are springing back into life. But only some. It ...

Inflation rates are falling, and prices haven't gone up since July.  This is largely due to crisis-related changes in consumer habits, says the Economic Development Ministry, and analysts support this conclusion, documented in more detail and with case studies here.  But is it business as usual for Russia's super-rich?  Armani plans to open three new stores and over two hundred points of sale in three major cities.  Government plans to triple excise duty on beer could lead to 100,000 job losses in Russia's brewing industry.  Avtovaz's financial problems are bad news for Tolyatti, a mono-city, so-called because 'a single industry accounts for most of the local economy'.  The central bank says the number of troubled banks in Russia has fallen from over 50 to less than 30 in the past months.  Mikhail Gutseriyev, the former head of Russneft ...

This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu*, market analyst, trader and author of the Economic Forecasts and Opinions blog.

The dollar’s value against major currencies has fallen in recent months as the US fiscal outlook worsened and amid expectations that interest rates will remain close to zero for some time to fight the economic downturn.

This week, the euro broke above the psychologically important level of $1.50 driving gold prices to record levels, prompting many global central banks intervening on currency markets to slow the dollar’s fall (Fig 1).

How did we get here?

Since the financial crisis last fall, currency markets have taken their cues mostly from stock markets. When stocks plunged in March of this year, investors rushed to the safety of US government bonds, pushing the

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Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach has suggested that the ruble could return to its 2008 high and reach 23 against the dollar next year, if oil prices continue going strong, spelling problems for exporters.  The Duma has passed the budget in a first vote, with it receiving 315 votes to go with United Russia's 315 deputies.  Vladimir Putin has met with business leaders from Germany, its biggest trading partner: German businesses are apparently faring well in Russia, despite the crisis.  President Medvedev is apparently confident that Russia's hopes to join the WTO have not been jeopardized by its dalliance with the idea of a three-party customs union bid.  First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Gennady Melikyan, has told Reuters that financial institutions are weathering stress tests well, although a report in Bloomberg puts on different spin, quoting Melikyan ...