Citigroup Inc. (C) could be compelled to sell its profitable and highly rated Mexican subsidiary Banamex due to a probe expected this week by Mexico’s Supreme Court. A group of senators has objected that Citigroup’s Mexican subsidiary is in breach of national law since the US government bail-out of the company. National law of Mexico bans foreign governments from owning a stake in domestic banks. Banamex, or Banco Nacional de Mexico, is one of Citigroup's brightest jewels, and accounts for over $20 billion, or 15% of its global profits. A number of other foreign-dominated banks operating in Mexico also remain exposed to the same risk, as many foreign governments own stake in them following the global financial crisis. These banks include American International Group, Inc. (AIG), Bank of America Corporation (BAC) and Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK), as well as ...

This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Mike Shedlock (Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis): Is the stock market a leading indicator?, October 12, 2009. The stock market is at best a coincident indicator, known only well after the fact. Furthermore, even as a coincident indicator, the stock market gives many false signals, making it totally useless for all practical purposes. The theory that the stock market is a reliable leading indicator is a myth easily shattered by simple observation of the facts.

• Caroline Baum (Bloomberg): Treasury bond rally fails asset-bubble test, October 13, 2009. Bubble sightings are proliferating by the day, and with interest rates near zero, it’s not hard to understand why. Easy money leads to excess credit creation, which eventually produces

...

The Dow Jones industrial average moved up 132 points on Tuesday and all major indicators rose more than 1% as the Australian central bank’s decision to raise interest rates boosted optimism about the world economy.   Investors' show of confidence ahead of a flood of corporate earnings reports came as Australia became the first major country to raise interest rates since the onset of the financial crisis last year.  The move signals that policymakers see that country's economy as strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs. That touched off hopes that other economies might also be growing.

Australia's decision dented demand for the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, raised commodities prices.  US energy and materials stocks moved up, oil also rose, and gold reached a record high.  Stock investors cheered the drop in the dollar because it boosts corporate profits by making U.S. goods cheaper for overseas buyers.

...

The Independent reports that Gulf Arab states have been engaged in secret talks with Russia, China, Japan and France to replace the US dollar with a basket of currencies in the trading of oil:  'This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil'.  Saudi Arabia's central bank chief has vociferously denied these claims, says the Washington Post.  An unlikely venture for Gazprom: the company apparently plans to start a chain of fast-food and supermarket outlets.  It is likely that the gas giant will recommence gas purchases from Turkmenistan this month or next, following a long suspension due to April's pipeline explosion.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko will postpone the electorate-displeasing move of raising domestic gas prices until after the Jan. 17 presidential election, despite a ...

In the currency market, the dollar lost some more ground to the euro. Late Friday, the euro was trading at $1.4068 vs. $1.3991 on Thursday.

China took center stage as Marketwatch.com reported that “the People’s Bank of China’s annual financial stability report repeated an earlier call by central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan for the development of a new super-sovereign currency that would largely take the place of the dollar…

“The Chinese central bank’s comments come after Chinese government officials had played down concerns over the dollar’s reserve-currency role following a visit to China by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner earlier this month.

“ ‘There may be signs here of tensions mounting between the PBOC’s economic concerns over China’s holdings of dollars and the Chinese government’s diplomatic reasons’ for toning down their criticism, said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.

“The central bank is ‘still clearly worried about the

...

In the currency market, the dollar lost some more ground to the euro. Late Friday, the euro was trading at $1.4068 vs. $1.3991 on Thursday.

China took center stage as Marketwatch.com reported that “the People’s Bank of China’s annual financial stability report repeated an earlier call by central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan for the development of a new super-sovereign currency that would largely take the place of the dollar…

“The Chinese central bank’s comments come after Chinese government officials had played down concerns over the dollar’s reserve-currency role following a visit to China by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner earlier this month.

“ ‘There may be signs here of tensions mounting between the PBOC’s economic concerns over China’s holdings of dollars and the Chinese government’s diplomatic reasons’ for toning down their criticism, said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider Foreign Exchange.

“The central bank is ‘still clearly worried about the

...