Sometimes in investing there is a tendency to over think things, to get bogged down in the details, to lose the forest through a close study of the trees. It is not that such matters are irrelevant, but that if you get the big major questions right you will be most of the way there. Unfortunately, most investors tend to avoid even asking the big really important questions, or at least don't act on them. The big questions really tend to boil down to what sectors you should be investing in. Yet, many investors simply rely on indexing instead. Even worse, those that do not explicitly index often invest in mutual funds that "closet index". Investment managers will do that because there is a big premium put on not being too far away from the "bogey", usually the S&P 500. Sure, it's great if they are ...

It was a day of mixed economic and earnings reports Monday but markets held on to gains and edged up slightly as shares seesawed through the session.  Although sentiments got a boost after data showed a surprise rise in new home sales, trading remained subdued as some weaker earnings reports and lowered guidance kept investors on the sidelines. 

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 15.27 points, or 0.2%, to 9,108.51 and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index edged up 2.92 points, or 0.3%, at 982.18.  The Nasdaq rose 0.1% or 1.93 points, at 1,967.89.  Treasuries declined as the government began a record auction of $115 billion in notes. Yield on the benchmark 10-year jumped to 3.72%.  On the NYSE, 1.04 billion shares exchanged hands and advancing issues outpaced decliners by a two-to-one margin.     

Lowered guidance from Aetna (NYSE:AET) and Honeywell (NYSE:HON) were digested by investors as offsetting those

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The Census Bureau reported that new homes sales fell in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, a 0.6% decline from Aprils 344,00) rate. However, the April number was revised down from an initial read of 352,000.The May rate was a fairly significant disappointment relative to expectations of a 360,000 annual rate. On a year-over-year basis, sales are down 32.8%.There was some good news in the report. For starters, all of the weakness was concentrated in one region, namely the South, where sales were off 8.5% for the month, and 35.9% versus May 2008. The South is by far the biggest and most important of the four census regions when it comes to housing. Even with the decline, it represented 53.8% of all new home sales.That amounts to a sharp decline from the 58.4% share in April. This is because the ...

The markets were up today led by energy stocks as oil settled at $72.68.  The Dow Jones was up 0.37% closing at 8770.92, with the S&P up 0.61% closing at 944.89.  The NASDAQ was up 9.29 closing at 1862.37.  Treasury prices were down as the yield closed at 3.862%.  Gold settled at $962.00 as the dollar continues to weaken against other currencies. 

In major news today, Bank of America [BAC: 12.97, +0.99 (+8.26%)] CEO Ken Lewis appeared at the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee to talk about BofA’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch.  Lawmakers wanted to know from Lewis why a deal that was approved by shareholders in December with no government aid, wound up costing $20 billion dollars to taxpayers, for completion in January.  Lawmakers also questioned Lewis about knowing about losses at Merrill earlier then reported, as internal e-mails in the Fed suggested.  Some have speculated that Lewis

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Asian markets jumped to their seven-month high Tuesday, fueling confidence the global financial crisis is easing.  Investors also took heart from U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's comments that financial markets have stabilized.  However, Geithner noted recovery is going to take some time and unemployment picture is likely to remain grim.  Markets in Asia, nevertheless, showed increased appetite for risk with major indexes gaining 2% or more.  Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 2.8% and South Korea's benchmark Kospi jumped 3%.  The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong climbed 3.1%.  India's Sensitive Index managed to end the day with a meager 0.1% gain, after an unprecedented rally in stocks triggered a trading halt yesterday.

Pre-market futures suggest a higher opening on the Wall Street, following better-than-expected earnings from Home Depot (NYSE:HD), which reiterated full-year guidance and reported a 44% jump in profit despite lower sales.

On Monday, U.S. stocks rallied

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Mergers Heat Up Between Haves, Have-Nots

by The Investment U Research Team

We spotlighted Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) along with a few other homebuilders yesterday as signs that the housing market is starting to move again. This morning we were greeted with the news that Pulte is buying out Centex (NYSE: CTX) for $10.50 a share – a 38% premium to it close yesterday.

Moving again indeed.

We’ve seen a number of mergers in the past quarter: Pfizer’s (NYSE: PFE) takeover of Wyeth (NYSE: WYE), Merck & Co’s (NYSE: MRK) merger with Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) and NRG Energy’s (NYSE: NRG) takeover of Calpine Corp (NYSE: CPN).

IBM (NYSE: IBM) pulled out of a planned merger on Monday after Sun Microsystem’s (Nasdaq:

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Monday:Economic New Home Sales (450K)Earnings Arch Coal (ACI), Humana (HUM), FPL (FPL), Sohu (SOHU), Tidewater (TDW), Verizon (VZ), Atheros (ATHR), CF Ind (CF), Meritage (MTH), Vertex (VRTX), Zoran (ZRAN), Universal Health (UHS)Tuesday:Economic Consumer Confidence (52.0)Earnings Boyd (BYD), BP (BP), Ceradyne (CRDN), KC Southern (KSU), Royal Carib (RCL), SAP (SAP), Schnitzer (SCHN), US Steel (X), Under Armour (UA), USG (USG), Valero (VLO), Whirlpool (WHR), Apollo (APOL), Centex (CTX), Cephalon (CEPH), Fiserv (FISV), GMarket (GMKT), Lan Air (LFL), McKesson (MCK), NetLogic (NETL), Walter (WLT), Websense (WBSN), STMicro (STM)Wednesday:Economic Weekly Crude, Durable Orders (-1.0%), FOMC StatementEarnings Aetna (AET), AGCO (AG), Comcast (CMCSA), Corning (GLW), Hess (HES), Garmin (GRMN), Legg Mason (LM), Moody’s (MCO), Newmont (NEM), SPX (SPW), Tesoro (TSO), Agnico (AEM), Cliffs Nat Res (CLF), CME Group (CME), First Solar (FSLR), Gen Cable (BGC), Hartford (HIG), Harris (HRS), Murphy (MUR), Prudential (PRU), Symantec ...

Tontine PartnersTontine Capital Partners - Holding AnalysisThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.If you're unfamiliar with Gendell and his Tontine Partners, then here's what you need to know. Founded 11 years ago, Tontine is a $10 billion fund ran by Jeffrey Gendell. He specializes in macro investing and takes very large, concentrated positions in companies he feels will benefit from those macro themes. Additionally, he will take on an activist role when necessary, to ensure shareholder returns. The fund has posted returns in excess of 100% in both 2003 and 2005.So, let's get right down to it... what was Jeffrey Gendell ...

ETF Update: Back to the Home Builders Sometimes the news moves faster than the system.  The announcement this weekend of the Fannie/Freddie bailout will change prospects for the overall market as well as specific sectors. The Street has been anticipating a plan, and that may have influenced some "bottom fishing" in the home builder stocks.  This helps to explain our ratings -- a strange mixture of energy positions, financials, and the inverse NASDAQ short, PSQ.  (For new readers, there is a further explanation of our approach at the end of the article.) Even when one's methods include some anticipation, as we have in the TCA-ETF system, one cannot guess which week will produce the government response to a crisis.  It could have been three weeks ago, or it might have dragged on until after the election.  The real point of clarity ...

Bank of America, National City, and American International are all at 52-week lows. Countrywide Financial and Wachovia are almost there, too.

Oh and those home builders? The ones Wall Street experts fell all over themselves to re-recommend earlier this year? Don’t look now but they’re faltering again:

Condo and single-family home builder WCI Communities recently plunged as low as $1.45. The company is losing money hand over fist and Standard & Poor’s just downgraded its corporate credit rating deeper into junk territory, citing concerns over the firm’s liquidity. A bankruptcy filing can’t be ruled out.

Standard Pacific — a California-based builder — went for $6.50 as recently as early April. It’s worth a bit over $2 now. No wonder: The company lost …