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Prieur’s readings (November 21, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (November 21st, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Jim Jubak (MSN Money): 3-step strategy for a twitchy market, November 19, 2009. Many investors are deeply suspicious of the 60% run-up in stocks this year and are itching to sell. But then what? Here’s how to take some gains now while setting up a profitable 2010.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Treasury yield plunge sends warning, November 20, 2009. Collapse in note yields suggests economic distress will keep Fed on hold well into 2010 or beyond.

• Gordon Chang (Forbes): When in doubt, blame Bernanke, November 19, 2009. According to Liu Mingkang, China’s chief bank regulator, low American interest rates and the falling dollar have “seriously affected global asset prices, fueled speculation in stock and property markets

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The $33,000,000,000,000 Question

Contrarian Profits (May 14th, 2009) Writes:

Is the crisis really over? Commercial paper spreads have come down dramatically. Libor rates are (hmm - almost) back to normal. Even high yield spreads are narrowing.

It certainly appears as if the credit crisis is well and truly over or, at the very least, the light which most of us think we can see at the end of the tunnel is no longer that of an oncoming freight train.

No wonder equities are currently enjoying one of their best spells ever. And while equities continue to go up and up, most of us are left scratching our heads. Is this the real thing or will it go down in history as ‘just’ another bear market rally? Not so long ago, the entire financial system stared Armageddon in the face. Now, only a few months later, equity markets behave as if all the worries of yesterday have been washed away. How

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He Who Borrows the Most, Wins

Contrarian Profits (May 14th, 2009) Writes:

“Never in the history of the world has there been a situation so bad that the government can’t make it worse.” -Unknown

The stock market might bounce for a while, global currencies might stabilize for a while, but don’t be deceived, large problems remain…very large problems. And the price to fix these problems will run into the tens of trillions of dollars. That’s the kind of price tag that could ruin a national currency or two…even the world’s reserve currency.

While equities continue to go up and up, most of us are left scratching our heads. Is this the real thing or will it go down in history as ‘just’ another bear market rally? Not so long ago, the entire financial system stared Armageddon in the face. Now, only a few months later, equity markets behave as if all the worries of yesterday have been washed away.

The dangerous conclusion

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Very Large Bubble of Government Debt

Dan Denning (May 13th, 2009) Writes:

Simple question: how do you invest during an inflationary boom? Today, some concrete ideas. And the simplest idea of them all-when you consider soaring government deficits-is to sell government bonds and buy beaten down, world-class equity.

Mind you, this is if you want to be in the equity market at all. There is a very good case to be made for NOT being in the equity market this year, or only being in those asset classes and single stocks you think will appreciate (or grow earnings) faster than the rate of inflation.

But let’s be more direct and say that this is still a bear market. The bear market began in 2000 with the popping of the tech bubble. The Fed fought back in 2003, setting a low-interest rate policy the rest of the dollar-pegged world followed. This kicked of leveraged booms in residential housing, credit derivatives, and stocks, bonds and commodities.

All

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Wrong Policies Will Delay Any Real Recovery …

Money and Markets (May 13th, 2009) Writes:
More than six years ago, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke — then still Fed Governor — gave a laudation for Milton Friedman, one of America’s leading economists. Friedman’s view on the Great Depression holds that the stock market bubble of the Roaring 20s was not the reason for the Depression. Instead, it was the wrong fiscal and monetary policy in the years after the bubble had burst that caused the Depression. Bernanke publicly said to Milton Friedman: “Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”...

As Economic Reports Worsen, Experts Predict a Longer Downturn

Contrarian Profits (March 9th, 2009) Writes:

Back in December, with the U.S. recession in its 12th month – and showing no signs of abating – Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson warned that an “L”-shaped recession was very possible.

The U.S. recession is now in its 15th month, and many economists now expect the downturn to last until 2010 – if not longer. In fact, some economists now say the U.S. malaise could easily evolve into the virulent “L-shaped” downturn that Hutchinson predicted – a development that would guarantee both the maximum pain and the slowest recovery, experts say.

“I said in December that the recession could be ‘bloody-L shaped.’ With the huge deficits, that now looks the most likely outcome – and believe me when I say that it will be very bloody,” Hutchinson said this week. “The economy will bottom quite soon, but every time it tries to

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