By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB.

The SARB leading indicator peaked at 127.2 in March 2007, thereafter declining for two years, initially gradually during 2007 but acquiring freefall proportions in 2008.

This indicator hit a cyclical low of 105.3 in March 2009, thereafter rising very rapidly to 112.5 by August 2009.

Given the events of 2008 and early 2009, there presumably exists no surprise regarding the indicator’s freefall in 2008. But what has made it rise so phoenix-like rapidly since March this year?

As per the June 2007 issue of the SARB Quarterly Bulletin, this leading index today is a composite of twelve individual time series which together offer superior forward-looking ability regarding the South African business cycle, leading turning points by some six to nine months.

The twelve time series can be grouped in four distinct sub-categories, each making a peculiar contribution to the behaviour of the composite

Gold and silver prices climbed to their highest in seven weeks on Monday, as the dollar’s slide to its lowest since mid-December boosted interest in hard assets.

Spot gold hit an intra-day high of $961.00 an ounce, its highest since June 11, and was bid at $959.10 an ounce at 1329 GMT, against $953.90 an ounce late in New York on Friday.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $5.70 to $959.40 an ounce.

“At the moment we’re seeing the dollar as the key factor to movements in the gold market,” said Eugen Weinberg, senior analyst at Commerzbank.

“In the past few months (gold) has gone from being a safe haven to becoming a dollar play. The dollar right now is so weak because no one is looking for a safe haven — because corporate results are so good and stock markets are performing so well.”

Silver was

Avalon Oil & Gas Inc. is a domestic oil and natural gas producer with leases currently in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas. The company’s strategy is to use efficient reservoir maintenance and innovative oil recovery technologies on previously abandoned wells in order to produce much-needed hydrocarbon energy.

Avalon believes that global conditions in the energy market present the company with an attractive investment opportunity for proven technologies which will expand oil production efficiency in already-established oil fields. There is definitely oil to be recovered – according to the Department of Energy there is the potential to recover over 43 billion barrels of additional oil from stranded oil reserves and mature oil wells in the United States.

Finding additional oil will be important in the upcoming years. Why? The same old story – supply and demand. The supply of oil is steadily declining while

Dollar weakens against euro as U.S. equities gain… Oil recovers from 3-1/2 year low … Traders look to U.S. auto sales figures to guide platinum

Gold climbed 1 percent on Tuesday, reversing earlier losses, as the dollar weakened against the euro on firming U.S. equity markets and oil prices recovered from 3-1/2 year lows.

Spot gold was quoted at $781.70/783.70 an ounce at 1522 GMT, up from $770.60 an ounce late in New York on Monday.

“Oil recovered and the euro-dollar is higher,” said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of sales at precious metals group Heraeus. “Those are the main reasons for the move.”

“The outlook from here really depends on the leading indicators, as well as oil and the dollar,” he added.

Gold slipped in earlier trade, extending the previous session’s losses, as the dollar firmed against the euro and oil prices sank,