By Cees Bruggemans, Chief Economist FNB

The forces arraigned against the Rand are rather formidable and no collapsed corporate deals seem to matter too much. The Rand is rising and will rise.

Pushing the Rand higher are the major central banks at the global centre (New York, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Zurich, London), keeping interest rates near zero and encouraging outward liquidity leakage towards faster growing and still outperforming yield destinations in the global periphery.

Pulling the Rand higher are a smattering of central banks located in the global periphery as they start increasing their rates, led by the Bank of Israel two weeks ago, but last week followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia, with others expected to follow serially in coming months.

With their growth reviving, small output gaps, house prices and employment rising and industrial activity recovering, these central banks are uncomfortable with their too low interest rates imposed during

It’s Monday morning. The world economy is calling in sick. A Bloomberg report confirms last week’s news: the US economy lost more jobs last year than at any time since the end of WWII.. The jobless rate is now at a 16-year high. The Dow fell 143 points on Friday. Oil stayed at $40. Gold didn’t budge much from $855. And the dollar rose – to $1.34 to the euro.

“Economists see longest recession since WWII,” is a headline at Reuters. Economists are always the last to know what is going on. If they see a long recession coming, maybe the recession is already over? But, no… this time, we think even the economists have it right.

“This is worse than the 1980s savings and loans crisis,” said our old friend Jim Rogers a year ago. “This is the first time – this is the worst credit bubble we’ve ever had in