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Today in Russian Business – August 26, 2009

Robert Amsterdam — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 08:49:12 +0000

The chairman of the German government-backed trust designed to oversee the sale of Opel has said that GM cannot afford to keep control of the European unit, as it needs to focus on its fortunes stateside. According to the...

Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights: SRS Labs, Techwell, Garmin, Panasonic and Ford – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 13:15:37 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – July 29, 2009 – Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: SRS Labs (SRSL), Techwell (TWLL), Garmin (GRMN), Panasonic (PC) and Ford (F).

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5513

Here are highlights from Tuesday’s Analyst Blog:

Auto Electronics Poised for Growth

A recent iSuppli report painted a brighter picture for the auto industry, and the electronics segment of the industry in particular. Auto sales are expected to increase in the second half of the year, growing up to 5.7% in 2010. Electronic components, such as audio head units, personal navigation devices (PNDs), advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), embedded telematics systems and Bluetooth are expected to benefit.

This should be good news for companies like SRS Labs (SRSL), Techwell (TWLL), Garmin (GRMN) and TomTom.

SRS management stated that its auto business fared better than the overall auto industry in the first quarter. The company’s customers in the auto market are Panasonic (PC), Kenwood, Pioneer and Fujitsu-Ten.

Comments made by car makers such as Ford (F) that demand for cars incorporating electronics exceeds demand for cars without them further validates this view. Techwell’s video decoding systems are targeted at navigation, entertainment and driver information systems, while Garmin and TomTom are the market leaders in navigation. All these companies are expected to benefit.

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About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Continuous coverage is provided for a universe of 1,150 publicly traded stocks. Our analysts are organized by industry which gives them keen insights to developments that affect company profits and stock performance. Recommendations and target prices are six-month time horizons.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today: http://at.zacks.com/?id=5517

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks Investment Research is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5518.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Zacks Investment Research

Auto Electronics Poised for Growth – Analyst Blog

Zacks Market Commentaries — Tue, 28 Jul 2009 18:22:09 +0000

This should be good news for companies like SRS Labs (SRSL), Techwell (TWLL), Garmin (GRMN) and TomTom.

Investor sentiment around auto is also improving, with the General Motors bankruptcy ending sooner than expected. iSuppli expects that rebates on new fuel-efficient models under the Fed’s “Cash for Clunkers" program will result in additional sales of 250,000 cars. The program allows a customer to replace his road-ready, less-than-25-year-old, less than 18-miles-per-gallon car bought for less than $45,000. Depending on the new car being bought, the government will offer a rebate of $3,500-$4,500.

Read the full analyst report on "SRSL"
Read the full analyst report on "TWLL"
Read the full analyst report on "GRMN"
Read the full analyst report on "PC"
Read the full analyst report on "F"
Zacks Investment Research

A Period of Creative Destruction

Bill Bonner — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 18:29:34 +0000

div class="entry-content" blockquotepembr / And it’s one, two, three,br / What are we fighting for?br / Don’t ask me, I don’t give a damn,br / Next stop is Vietnam;br / And it’s five, six, seven,br / Open up the pearly gates,br / Well there ain’t no time to wonder why,br / Whoopee! We’re all gonna die./em/p p– Country Joe #38; the Fish, “I Feel Like I’m Fixin’ To Die Rag”/p/blockquote pRobert McNamara must have been in a hurry too. He never had time to wonder why he was sending 500,000 American boys to fight a war when Lyndon Johnson was “publicly promising in campaign speeches not to ‘go North,’ not to send American boys to fight wars Asian boys ought to fight for themselves,” as an editorial appearing in the June 17, 1971 issue of emThe Washington Post/em put it./p pBoth the emInternational Herald#8230;/em/p/div

Zacks Bull and Bear of the Day Highlights: SINA Corp., Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V., Masco, Dryships and Ford. – Press Releases

Zacks Market Commentaries — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:22:05 +0000

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL - June 11, 2009 - Zacks Equity Research highlights SINA Corp. (SINA) as the Bull of the Day and Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V. (PHG) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Masco (MAS), Dryships (DRYS) and Ford (F).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=2676.

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

SINA Corp. (SINA) is a leading provider of online media and value-added information services to the global Chinese community. The company posted a year-over-year increase in revenue, but results were below our estimates. SINA provided encouraging Q2 guidance.

However, economic growth in the country has continued to slow during to the global downturn. The company is also facing severe competition in its mobile business, though China's Internet penetration has surpassed the world average, which is expected to have a positive impact on the company's business.

We believe the SINA's business will continue on the strength of solid fundamentals and it will emerge as a strong company when the recession ends. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock but increase our six-month price target to $38.00.

Bear of the Day:

Given the reduced visibility in the global economy, which progressively deteriorated during the quarter, Koninklijke Philips Electronics N.V. (PHG) has decided to restructure businesses in all three sectors, which led to additional charges in the Q1FY09. This has caused us to reduce overall revenue growth rate to negative 7.73% in Euro terms, for 2009 compared to negative 2.2% recorded for 2008.

The revenue growth rate in terms of dollars is projected at negative 17% for FY09 compared to 3.78% for FY08. The company is working to improve its cost structure and its EBITA margins have declined in 1Q09 due to restructuring charges booked.

Based on these results, we are maintaining our Sell rating on PHG with a price target of $17.00 or 24.9x 25.1x our 2009 EPADS estimate of $0.68.

Latest Posts on the Zacks Analyst Blog:

Beige Book: Recession Moderating

Counter-balancing this was the expectation that there will not be "a substantial increase in economic activity" throughout the remainder of the year. Again, this is inline what with the trends I'm drawing from the economic and earnings estimate revision data. Conditions are improving, but we are nowhere near to getting out the woods.

On the positive side, signs of improvement were noted in import and export activity, discount retail and lower-priced homes. Though this might sound like good news for Masco (MAS) or Dryships (DRYS), it's important to note that we're still far from a recovery in housing or transportation.

On the negative side, credit remained tight. Several districts blamed the lack of lending activity for depressing auto sales, which is problematic for Ford (F) and other car makers.

Get the most recent insight from Zacks Equity Research with the free Profit from the Pros newsletter: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2649.

About the Bull and Bear of the Day

Every day, the analysts at Zacks Equity Research select two stocks that are likely to outperform (Bull) or underperform (Bear) the markets over the next 3-6 months.

About the Analyst Blog

Updated throughout every trading day, the Analyst Blog provides analysis from Zacks Equity Research about the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets.

About Zacks Equity Research

Zacks Equity Research provides the best of quantitative and qualitative analysis to help investors know what stocks to buy and which to sell for the long-term.

Zacks "Profit from the Pros" e-mail newsletter provides highlights of the latest analysis from Zacks Equity Research. Subscribe to this free newsletter today by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=2677.

About Zacks

Zacks.com is a property of Zacks Investment Research, Inc., which was formed in 1978 by Leonard Zacks. As a PhD in mathematics Len knew he could find patterns in stock market data that would lead to superior investment results. Amongst his many accomplishments was the formation of his proprietary stock picking system; the Zacks Rank, which continues to outperform the market by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. The best way to unlock the profitable stock recommendations and market insights of Zacks InvestmentResearch is through our free daily email newsletter; Profit from the Pros. In short, it's your steady flow of Profitable ideas GUARANTEED to be worth your time! Register for your free subscription to Profit from the Pros at http://at.zacks.com/?id=4582.

Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release.

Contact:
Mark Vickery
Web Content Editor
312-265-9380
Visit: www.zacks.com

Zacks Investment Research

Beige Book: Recession Moderating – Analyst Blog

Charles Rotblut — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 21:36:37 +0000

The recession is moderating, though growth will not occur in the second half

The June Beige Book confirmed what I have been saying for weeks: the pace of deterioration has slowed. Five districts said that the "downward trend is showing signs of moderating."

Counter-balancing this was the expectation that there will not be "a substantial increase in economic activity" throughout the remainder of the year. Again, this is inline what with the trends I'm drawing from the economic and earnings estimate revision data. Conditions are improving, but we are nowhere near to getting out the woods.

On the positive side, signs of improvement were noted in import and export activity, discount retail and lower-priced homes. Though this might sound like good news for Masco (MAS) or Dryships (DRYS), it's important to note that we're still far from a recovery in housing or transportation.

On the negative side, credit remained tight. Several districts blamed the lack of lending activity for depressing auto sales, which is problematic for Ford (F) and other car makers.

Agriculture also had problems. Above-normal rainfall delayed planting in some districts, while drought hurt Oklahoma's wheat crop. Lower cattle and hog prices combined with higher feed costs were reported in some districts, which could adversely affect Sanderson Farms (SAFM) and its peers.
Read the full analyst report on "MAS"
Read the full analyst report on "DRYS"
Read the full analyst report on "F"
Read the full analyst report on "SAFM"
Zacks Investment Research

Wild Swings!

Contrarian Profits — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 21:59:37 +0000

pEuro goes back and forth over 1.43#8230;Eurozone unemployment rises to 9.2%#8230;Australia#8217;s GDP surprises! Is it protectionism? And Now#8230; Today#8217;s Pfennig!/p pGood day#8230; And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I#8217;m draggin#8217; the line today, as I was helping my oldest son, Andrew, with things in his brand, spankin#8217; new house, last night. Congrats to Andrew, for finding a great bargain, with a low, fixed, interest rate!/p pOK#8230; Whew! What a day in the currencies yesterday! Another day, and another day of wild swings.. Volatility is the name of the game these days#8230; Watching, for instance, the euro trade down to 1.4220, and then up to 1.4320 and not just on a one-way ticket! Oh No! this is a bounce here a bounce there#8230;#8230;/p

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – May 18, 2009

Robert Amsterdam — Mon, 18 May 2009 06:20:43 +0000

TODAY: US disappointed with Russia's stance on OSCE; Medvedev hopeful on Obama talks; Abkhazia's President Bagapsh wary of Russian control; Russia suggests ruble reserve currency for G8; prognosis not good for Russia-EU; gay rights parade broken up Talks on replacing...

Is China Detroit’s Lifeline?

Bullish Bankers — Sun, 17 May 2009 13:00:35 +0000

HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGION, People’s Republic of China – As deep as the U.S. auto industry’s financial crisis seems to be, there may actually be a fairly simple solution. Sell out to China. Nearly a decade ago, I warned that Detroit’s Big Three – General Motors Corp. [GM: 1.09, -0.06 (-5.22%)], Ford [...]

Is China Detroit’s Lifeline?

Contrarian Profits — Tue, 12 May 2009 12:58:27 +0000

pAs deep as the U.S. auto industry’s financial crisis seems to be, there may actually be a fairly simple solution. Sell out to China. Nearly a decade ago, I warned that Detroit’s Big Three – General Motors Corp. (NYSE: a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=gm" target="_blank"GM/a), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=f" target="_blank"F/a) and a href="http://www.google.com/finance?cid=4090940" target="_blank"Chrysler LLC/a – had better learn to speak Chinese if they wanted to survive. /p pI’ve repeated that warning many times since. Now, it appears that the idea is finally entering mainstream thought. China may well be Detroit’s lifeline. From some – chiefly those who don’t understand that Detroit has largely failed to make a passing grade in an increasingly global economy – my warnings have attracted a lot of criticism./p pThat’s unfortunate, because by adopting such#8230;/p

Netbooks: The Next Big Tech Product Cycle?

Sean Maher — Fri, 01 May 2009 11:00:00 +0000

div align="left"The computer industry is on the cusp of a revolution. Just as Asian car makers undermined the profitability of Detroit with their cheap and reliable subcompact vehicles, now the emstrongAsian tech industry is threatening to do the same to Silicon Valley with netbooks, simplified mini-laptops optimised for web browsing/strong/em that will retail for as little as $250-300. Despite disappointing Q1 sales, this structural change in the computing industry will profoundly affect some of the biggest tech names. About 25m will be shipped this year, and growth looks set to explode across the emerging world as local middle-class consumers graduate from cellphones to their first computer./divdiv align="left"They were originally conceived at MIT as a solution for the computing needs of schools in developing countries and typically have a 7-10 inch LCD screen, a couple of USB ports, Wi-Fi and sometimes a 3G antennae, and run on Intel’s Atom chip or the ARM11 processor. They are inherently lower-margin for the industry in the same way as selling a subcompact is compared to a fully loaded SUV for Ford, but emstrongthey offer the promise of reaching millions of new consumers in emerging markets who can now graduate from a mobile phone to a computer/strong/em. While US manufacturers were slow to see the potential, Taiwanese and Chinese firms have moved quickly to create a whole new market based on a lower rather than higher product spec. /divdiv align="left"emstrongThis year PC shipments globally are likely to decline 10-15% but the value decline will be closer to 20 percent./strong/em The launch of Microsoft's Windows 7 is set to fuel the flight to lower-cost, simplified PCs because it’s configured to run on the lowest common denominator in terms of configuration. emstrongThis is the first Windows upgrade ever not to require a hardware upgrade. /strong/em/divdiv align="left"For Microsoft, accepting lower margins is strategically rational to keep Google's Linux-based Android operating system at bay in the netbook market. Interestingly, mobile phone operators like Vodafone are now offering 'all you can eat' mobile broadband on monthly subscription with a free netbook thrown in; computers are now following the model created by the phone industry. While volumes will soar over coming years (although forecasts of 120m by 2012 look like typical industry hype, any more than half that would be a good result) emstrongit will to some extent be at the expense of the replacement cycle for high-margin laptops and PCs/strong/em. The net impact on the bottom line for the computer industry may prove negative, but as always amid a structural upheaval, there will be both winners and losers. /divbr /div align="left"emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#3366ff;"This article continues at /span/strong/ema href="http://www.deadcatsbouncing.com/"emstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#cc0000;"www.deadcatsbouncing.com/span/strong/em/aemstrongspan style="font-family:trebuchet ms;color:#cc0000;" /span/strong/em/divbr /div align="left"/divdiv class="blogger-post-footer"img width='1' height='1' src='http://res1.blogblog.com/tracker/1897020887579135393-6037052458443316327?l=deadcatsbouncing.blogspot.com'//divdiv class="feedflare" a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:63t7Ie-LG7Y"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?d=63t7Ie-LG7Y" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:yIl2AUoC8zA"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?d=yIl2AUoC8zA" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:YwkR-u9nhCs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?d=YwkR-u9nhCs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:qj6IDK7rITs"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?d=qj6IDK7rITs" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:F7zBnMyn0Lo"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:F7zBnMyn0Lo" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:gIN9vFwOqvQ"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?i=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:gIN9vFwOqvQ" border="0"/img/a a href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?a=1h1Zvx5vVGI:x89y0NSa0B0:TzevzKxY174"img src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~ff/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets?d=TzevzKxY174" border="0"/img/a /divimg src="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/~r/DeadCatsBouncingMusingsOnTheMarkets/~4/1h1Zvx5vVGI" height="1" width="1"/

Bad News for GM and Chrysler Rallies the US$

Contrarian Profits — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 21:00:55 +0000

pBad news for car makers rallies the US$#8230; Yen comes back strong#8230; Singapore to devalue?#8230; German Chancellor Merkel gives warning#8230; And Now#8230; Today#8217;s Pfennig!/p pGood day#8230; And good Monday morning to all of you. I can#8217;t believe March is nearly over, it seems as though it just started. March will end up being a pretty good month for the currency markets, as investors exited the safety of US treasuries and started moving funds back into higher yielding assets. But the markets continue to be volatile, and news released on Friday and over the weekend has sent these investors rushing back to the safe haven of the US dollar./p pThe Japanese Yen and US dollar benefited after a US Government official said Friday#8230;/p

Lithium Stands to Profit with Government Investment

Contrarian Profits — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:31:44 +0000

pLaura Cadden of Today#8217;s Financial News points out that the #8220;commodity choice for investors#8221; is Lithium. With the high global demand and the U.S. governments#8217; plan to invest over $2 billion on hybrid technology, Lithium is a smart investment./p pThis from Laura:/p blockquotepLithium is becoming the commodity of choice for investors — for good reason. Car makers are choosing lithium-ion batteries for their much-anticipated hybrid and electronic vehicles. And the $2 billion the U.S. intends to invest in that technology will help ease the way./p pAt car shows globally, everybody’s talking lithium…/p ul lia href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=GM"GM/a announced it would build a plant to manufacture lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries for the Chevy Volt scheduled to debut in 2011./li lia href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=BIT%3ABMW"BMW/a plans to launch its remodeled Li-ion battery-powered 750i luxury sedan to the Japanese#8230;/li/ul/blockquote

Investors Face A Head-On Collision In Battery-Powered Cars

Irwin Greenstein — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 18:08:25 +0000

pPresident Obama’s new ruling that allows states to set higher emission standards than Washington could give false hope to investors looking to cash in on investments in hybrid and electric vehicles. New data points to a prolonged adoption of battery-powered, next-generation transportation as the recession and low gas prices continue to conspire against the feel-good alternatives./p pLong-suffering readers know that we’ve taken a contrarian position against hybrid and electric cars as evidence continues to mount against their short-term returns for investors. The flip side of our coin, however, is that we don’t know when these investments will start to show profits for shareholders./p pTwo data points popped up on our computers in recent days, further substantiating our gloomy view of battery-powered vehicles.#8230;/p

Wall St to Open Lower on Earnings Fears

Contrarian Profits — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:45:59 +0000

pWorries over the economy and corporate earnings weigh#8230; Focus on inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama#8230; S#38;P 500 futures off 1.5 pct, Dow futures off 1.1 pct, Nasdaq futures off 1.2 pct /p p Wall Street was poised for a lower open on Tuesday as investors fretted over grim earnings and the health of the banking sector, highlighting difficulties facing U.S. President-elect Barack Obama. /p p Optimism over a plan by Obama, who will be sworn in later on Tuesday, to push for a fresh stimulus package to stave off a worsening economy could help cushion the market./p p But the banking sector could weigh heavily, taking a cue from global markets after Britain#8217;s Royal Bank of Scotland on Monday posted the biggest loss in U.K. corporate#8230;/p

Gold Rises 2 % on Fresh Investor Interest

Contrarian Profits — Tue, 20 Jan 2009 13:56:41 +0000

pFirm investment demand outweighs weak jewelery buying#8230; Euro weakens on euro zone outlook#8230; Oil prices tumble nearly 10 percent#8230;/p pGold swung into the black on Tuesday, rising more than 2 percent to a one-week high of $855.75 an ounce, amid market talk of a large order. /p p Firm investment demand for gold as a haven from risk is fueling buying of the precious metal, analysts said. /p p Spot gold was quoted at $853.00/855.00 an ounce at 1228 GMT, up from $834.55 late on Monday. Earlier it touched a low of $822.90, down more than 1 percent. /p p Standard Chartered analyst Daniel Smith said strong investor flows into products such as exchange-traded funds as investors sought more secure assets were offsetting weaker jewelery demand. /p p #8220;People#8230;/p

Gold Weakens on Strong Dollar, Platinum Rises

Contrarian Profits — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 16:30:55 +0000

pDollar touches fresh 3-week high versus the euro#8230; ETF Securities reports 2 pct rise in gold ETF holdings#8230; Platinum, palladium rise to multi-week highs#8230;/p pGold fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday as a stronger dollar dented the precious metal#8217;s appeal as a currency hedge, but the platinum group metals rallied as investors hunted for bargains. /p p Spot gold was quoted at $846.50/848.10 an ounce at 1444 GMT, down from $858.90 late in New York on Monday. However, it lifted off an earlier low of $838.55 as the dollar trimmed gains against the euro after a raft of U.S. data at 1500 GMT. /p p U.S. gold futures for February delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were down $10.10#8230;/p

Gold Leads Precious Metals Slide on Firmer Dollar

Contrarian Profits — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 20:30:02 +0000

pDollar rises to 3-week high vs euro on stimulus hopes#8230; Oil prices fail to hold gains above $48 a barrel#8230; Abu Dhabi Dec gold sales fall 40 pct month on month. /p pGold slid more than 3 percent in Europe on Monday as the strengthening dollar knocked the metal#8217;s appeal as a currency hedge, and oil prices retreated from highs. /p pOther precious metals tumbled in gold#8217;s wake, with silver falling 8 percent, platinum 3 percent and palladium 6 percent. /p p Spot gold was quoted at $851.65/853.65 an ounce at 1445 GMT, down from $873.20 an ounce late in New York on Friday, having touched a session low of $843.50. /p p U.S. gold futures for February delivery on the COMEX division of the New#8230;/p

Recession Spells Disaster For Green Autos

Irwin Greenstein — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 18:45:38 +0000

pMarket and regulatory forces are exerting pressure on higher gas prices, but whether or not the coming hikes will turn new car buyers to green autos still remains to be seen. With drillers curtailing new wells, and President-elect Barack Obama#8217;s pick for energy secretary, Dr. Steven Chu, mouthing off about raising fossil-fuel surcharges, the weakness of the overall economy could deter consumers from paying the green-car premium at their local dealerships./p pAs of 2007, when gas prices were on the rise, the price premium for a hybrid (a gas-electric vehicle) was about $5,000 versus a conventional gas-burning vehicle. Even at those higher gas prices, the break even for a hybrid compared with gas was six to 10 years. Today, with gas#8230;/p

Bailout Failure Accelerates Dollars Decline

Contrarian Profits — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:31:51 +0000

pSenate rejects auto bailout#8230; ECB pushes back from the rate cut table#8230; Goldman and Citigroup predict a dollar fall#8230; China to continue to appreciate#8230; And Now#8230; Today#8217;s Pfennig!/p pbr / Good day#8230; Not sure when all of you will be receiving this today, as it took nearly over a half hour for my computer to boot up this morning. But its all good news for currency investors, so I#8217;ll get it written and out to you as quickly as I can. The dollar slowed its decent overnight, but continued to fall vs. most of the major currencies as the US Senate rejected the $14 billion bailout for the auto industry./p pThe big winner in the Senate rejection of the bailout plan was the Japanese#8230;/p

I’m Back — Did I Miss Anything?

Sean Brodrick — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 13:34:30 +0000

Man, you guys had fun while I was away. And look at this welcome-home party! Stocks cratered at the open, as Republican senators A href=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/business/12auto.htmlSTRONGrefuse to go along /STRONG/Awith the Detroit bailout package.brbr On the other hand, we probably would have had sell-the-news stock dump even if the bailout package did pass. The economic environment is terrible. As Calculated Risk explains, weekly unemployment claims are at A href=http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/initial-unemployment-claims-increases.htmlSTRONGmulti-year highs:/STRONG/Abrimg style=WIDTH: 480px alt= src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/aa0ff38d-9bb9-44a5-bba5-8be30d8f6977/ContinuedClaimsDec2008.jpg _width=75 _height=75br PIt's not just jobs -- A href=http://www.census.gov/marts/www/marts_current.htmlSTRONGretail sales collapsed in November/STRONG/A, and other indicators are negative across the board. In case you haven't guessed, I am a reluctant supporter of the bail-out. I think letting a US car company go bankrupt in the current economic environment is like pouring gasoline on a fire. I didn't think Congress would be this stupid. After all, they don't raise a peep when Citibank got $300 billion. But some in Congress are apparently more interested in pursuing long-held ideological dreams -- like breaking unions -- than they care about this nation's well-being and health./P PSo is there hope? Well, if GM and Chrysler can hang on until the next Congress, sure. The final vote was 52 to 35 (12 didn't vote). A href=http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=110session=2amp;vote=00215STRONGFour Democrats did not vote, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid voted with Republicans/STRONG/A (as a procedural matter). With 10 Republicans defecting, seven of whom will be around in 2009, new legislation will easily pass in January upon the arrival of at least seven new Democratic votes, unless Reid allows a filibuster. Reid is a total wimp, so car makers shouldn't hang their hopes on him suddenly growing a spine./P PMeanwhile, everyone should read A href=http://www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2009/01/stiglitz200901 target=_blankSTRONGthis Joseph Stiglitz piece/STRONG/A. He's a Nobel-prize winning economist, and he identifies five key mistakes—under Reagan, Clinton, and Bush II — that laid the groundwork for financial apocalypse./P PSo what does this mean for gold? Gold is keying on the US dollar which has run into major problems over the past week.brimg style=WIDTH: 480px alt= src=http://local.content.compendiumblog.com/uploads/user/7e88b461-578b-47f3-88ec-038e212ad053/aa0ff38d-9bb9-44a5-bba5-8be30d8f6977/dollar1.png _width=75 _height=75br/P PThe dollar has some final support at 83.75. If that fails, we could see the US dollar fall to 81. And that would be bullish for gold. Let's see how things develop today./P PNow, how about my trip? I'll be telling my Red-Hot Global Small-Caps subscribers about it pretty soon, and I expect I'll make it my MoneyandMarkets piece for next week./P

Should the Big Three Be Allowed to Fail?

Contrarian Profits — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 14:51:17 +0000

pThe fact that after over 30 years of consistent mismanagement and decline, there is still any discussion on whether or not we should allow the now significantly smaller “Big Three” automakers to fail is clear evidence that Washington has lost all common sense. br / Why, when after more than three decades of continuous restructuring, a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gm"GM/a, a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Ford"Ford/a, and a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=4090940"Chrysler /ahave not been able to change their culture, high-cost basis and ill-conceived strategies, does anyone believe yet another break would change anything? Are they going to be better off next year, or the year after that, or even five years from now? Just because their situation has become even more precarious, it doesn’t mean that they will be more successful going forward… more#8230;/p

Another Dim Idea For Electric Cars

Irwin Greenstein — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 13:10:28 +0000

pIf there’s ever a reason why you should avoid investing in the electric-car revolution it’s a start-up called Better Place L.L.C./p pBased in Silicon Valley, the company is negotiating with governments and car makers to set up networks of charging systems for electric-car batteries./p pThe New York Times ran a story today about how Hawaiian Electric Company endorsed the Better Place system of rechargeable stations and swappable batteries. Better Place already has garnered endorsements from Israel, Denmark, Australia, Renault-Nissan and a coalition of Northern California./p pIn essence, the endorsements constitute permission for Better Place to install its system. Here’s how Better Place makes money for investors:/p pDrivers pay to access a network of charging spots and conveniently located battery exchange stations powered by renewable#8230;/p

And Then There’s This…Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

Contrarian Profits — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 18:59:34 +0000

pGold and silver didn#8217;t do a lot in early Far East trading on Tuesday. The price for both metals bottomed very early in London#8230;and from there a solid rally in both metals ensued#8230;which ended shortly after the Comex opened for business#8230;and that was it for the day./p pThe usual NY gold commentator had the following yesterday#8230;#8221;News reports indicate that Turkey imported 15 tonnes of gold in November. Considering that the Turkish currency has slumped by some 30% in the last couple of months, this is actually quite remarkable. Probably it reflects the volume of Turkish imports subsequently re-exported to countries to the south#8230;Today#8217;s ECB (European Central Bank) weekly statement of condition reports that ‘gold and gold receivables’ dropped E115 Mm, which#8230;/p

Gold, Cars and Government Bailouts

Sean Brodrick — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 11:59:10 +0000

Deflationary forces are pushing the price of gold lower. However, beyond the short-term price for paper gold, some of the news is surprisingly bullish. I'm putting out an update to my recent gold report today, with some very interesting news on supply and demand. The director of the World Gold Council was on CNBC yesterday talking about it. You can see that video here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=933064521

Some of the bullish news for gold ...

* Global demand rose 18% to 1,133.4 metric tonnes from 963.3 tonnes a year earlier.

* In dollar terms, the jump in demand was even bigger. Dollar demand for gold reached an all time quarterly record of $32 billion in the third quarter, a whopping 45% higher than the previous record … set in the second quarter.

* Identifiable investment, which includes purchases through exchange-traded funds and of bars and coins, climbed 56% year over year to 382.1 tons.

There's a lot more in the update. Look for it today.

In other news, the Big 3 Automakers left Washington empty-handed after Congress couldn't agree on a$25 billion rescue plan. Apparently the lawmakers were upset that the car manufacturing CEOs flew to Washington on private jets. I don't remember anyone asking if bankers used private jets when we handed them $700 billion. The real argument against it is that even if we loan them $25 billion, the automakers' business model is broken and they'll be back with begging bowl in hand pretty soon. Even the automakers admit that $25 billion is only a bridge to the next step.

It's already been shown that it will cost the government more than $25 billion if we don't give loans to the Big 3. The auto industry is 4% of our GDP. Not bailing it out will probably cost $400 billion to $750 billion in unemployment insurance, welfare payments, related businesses going broke, etc. So opponents of the plan must be thinking that the eventual cost of the bailout will be more than $750 billion. Still, you have to wonder why they're balking at $25 billion when the US government has already spent $4.3 TRILLION in bailouts.

UNLESS ... the real opposition to the bailout is that letting the car companies go bankrupt is a chance to break the back of organized labor. And some people feel that's a worthy goal no matter what the cost. After all, if they can pay American workers the same wage they pay Mexicans, then car companies won't have to ship any more production to Mexico.

I was in favor of the bailout, with many strings attached. Those strings would include ...

* Increase American automobile fuel efficiency by an average 10 mpg over the next 10 years and 20 mpg in 15 years.
* Combine the big 3 into big 2, and start laying off non-essential personnel.
* No more executive bonuses until the crisis is passed, and any percentage wage cuts for workers is matched by at least double that in percentage wage cut for top executives. After all, GM line workers make $27.81 an hour, while the CEOs of Chrysler, Ford and GM earn a combined $24.5 million per year.
* No more foreign outsourcing of jobs.
* Cut advertising budgets to 1/10th of what they are now and put the saved money into building cars, not marketing them.

There are other strings I'd attach, but you get the basic idea. Bailouts have worked in the past. Chrysler was given a government loan back in the early 1980s and this helped Chrysler survive at the time. Lee Iacocca said, "We borrow money the old fashioned way. We pay it back". In his first year, Iacocca fired 33 of the 36 vice presidents and streamlined the management. He cut workers' salaries, but they couldn't really complain because he set his own salary the first year at only $1.

There are still many problems that car makers will have to overcome, including their staggering legacy costs. But I think failure is a very bad option. America is a country that runs on cars. I think we need a car industry, and I don't want to see our manufacturing base hollowed out any more than it is, because at some point, we'll need it. After all, if there's a war, are we going to buy our tanks from China?

Meanwhile, at the US EconoMonitor, Robert Reich makes some good points about the massive TARP bailout of Wall Street's biggest banks:

Hank Paulson has just about burned through $300 billion, and it's not clear what the public has got out of it. Perhaps things would be worse without the bailout but they're certainly no better. Wall Street banks have not significantly stepped up their loans to small businesses, college students, car buyers, or distressed homeowners. Much of the auto industry is on the verge of bankruptcy. And the rate of foreclosures is rising.What happened to all the money? About a third has gone into dividends the banks are paying their shareholders. Some of the rest into executive salaries and bonuses. Another portion toward acquisitions designed to raise share values. Another chunk for bailing out giant insurer, AIG. That's not what taxpayers bargained for.

Mr. Reich's proposal: Force the banks to stop paying dividends, executive compensation or deferred bonuses, or doing any more acquisitions, and instead use their money to start lending. To that, I'd add the proposal that any company living on government handouts can't use private jets. If it's a good enough rule for car manufacturers, it's good enough for banks.

IN OTHER NEWS ...

Consumer Prices Fall Record 1% as Energy Plunges The overall and energy decreases were the biggest since the government began keeping such records. Data on the overall CPI date back to 1947, and the energy data go back to 1957.

Crude Oil Falls, Approaching $50 a Barrel, as Slowing Growth Saps Demand Crude oil fell for a fifth day, approaching $50 a barrel, as the weakening world economy increased concerns that demand for fuels will slow.

Goldman Cuts 2009 Oil Forecast, Closes All Its Oil Trading Recommendations Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecast for the average price of New York-traded crude oil in 2009 to $80 a barrel from $86, adding that it was closing all its trading recommendations for oil.

China Plans First Fuel-Price Cut in Two Years to Help Stimulate Economy China, the world's second-largest energy user after the U.S., is accelerating plans to cut fuel prices for the first time in two years as the nation's economy slows and oil costs fall, the country's top planner said.

Corn, Soybeans Fall a Third Day as Stocks Rout Increases Demand Concerns Corn and soybeans dropped for a third day as stock markets slumped, increasing concern that a worsening global economy will curb demand for food, feed and fuel. Wheat prices declined for a fourth day.

Bernanke May Find Deflation `Back on the Table' as Threat to U.S. Economy Five years after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke helped stamp out the risk of deflation, the threat is returning as the financial crisis and a worsening economic slump pull inflation lower.

Ecuador Audit Commission Finds `Illegality, Illegitimacy' in Foreign Debt Ecuador's debt audit commission said it uncovered ``illegality and illegitimacy'' in the country's foreign obligations, findings that may give President Rafael Correa the legal basis he's sought to halt bond payments.

Data Shows Just How Bad Things Are

Contrarian Profits — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 17:44:03 +0000

Data shows just how bad things are… Trade deficits narrow… EU confirms they are in a recession… RBA intervening again… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!
We finally had some data releases here in the US which look to steer the markets, so I’ll just get right to it.

The dollar continued to strengthen yesterday after another round of bad weekly employment figures. Initial jobless claims increased to 516k during the first week of November, and last weeks numbers were revised up to 484k. The employment picture continues to darken here in the US, and it doesn’t look like it will improve any time soon. This is just what the US consumers don’t need right now. Not only are most consumers living paycheck to…

DC Money Show and more

Sean Brodrick — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 12:59:24 +0000

I spent the weekend at the Washington D.C., Money show. The show has shrunk from last year, and the opinions ranged from "this is an incredible time to buy" to "Aaaaaaiiiiiii!!!!!" I'll have more about that in Wednesday's Money and Markets column.

This morning, the market is rising on news of a $586 stimulus plan in China and a new A.I.G. bailout in Washington. I'm not sure why the market thinks this is good news. Last time I looked, the Federal Debt had soared to such levels that each American now owes over $32,000. I think that's unsustainable, as long as the US dollar holds its present value.

In other words, it would be a lot easier to bear if that debt was only (in relative terms) $3,200. That's not so scary, is it? I wonder if Uncle Sam is thinking the same thing. The Russians are already letting the ruble devalue like a stone falling from heaven.

You could say that Paulson's hand-outs of billions of dollars at a time are just the latest twist in the Bush gang's efforts to loot the public purse before they leave office. Jerome at DailyKos asks: Can Obama Stop the Looting Before It's Too Late? I don't think Jerome should get his hopes up -- the handover of power seems to be much too friendly for there to be a disruption of the pigs at the trough -- and I found especially interesting this line from a Bloomberg story that Jerome links to: Americans have no idea where their money is going or what securities the banks are pledging in return.

Here's the news I'm reading now ...

AIG May Get More in Bailout

When the restructured deal is complete, taxpayers will have invested and lent a total of $150 billion to A.I.G., the most the government has ever directed to a single private enterprise. It is a stark reversal of the government’s assurance that its earlier moves had stabilized A.I.G.

XX Sean's note -- Funny, isn't it, how eager Treasury Secretary Paulson is to throw $40 billion at a pop at A.I.G, but there's great rending of garments and gnashing of teeth over a proposed $50 billion loan package for the auto industry. Heck, even Australia is giving its car makers $6 billion over 15 years.

Europe, Asia Markets Surge on China Stimulus Plan

The gains come in the wake of Chinese government's unveiling of a massive 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package to help stave off much of the economic slowdown. The package involves a mix of spending, subsidies, looser credit policies and tax cuts.

China's economic growth slowed to 9 percent in the third quarter, the lowest level in five years and a sharp decline from 11.9 percent the year before -- perilously low for a government that needs to create jobs for millions of new workers and for other Asian countries that have come to depend heavily on Chinese demand.

Believing in Estimates Means 20% Advance for S&P 500

The average Wall Street forecast calls for the S&P 500 to break out of a bear market and surge 20 percent to 1,118 by Dec. 31 -- more than twice as much as the biggest-ever advance to close out a year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Strategists were even more bullish at the beginning of the year, predicting that the S&P 500 would end 2008 at a record 1,632.

OPEC president: Oil cuts likely if no price rally

OPEC nations could further reduce oil output if moves last month to slash production do not bolster plummeting oil prices, OPEC president Chakib Khelil said Saturday.

Saudi Aramco Says Oil Price Falls May Curb Investment

(Bloomberg) -- Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest state-owned oil company, said a further drop in crude oil prices may curtail investments needed to offset declining output in aging fields.

Investment is also needed to expand production capacity to meet long-term demand growth, Chief Executive Officer Abdallah Jum'ah said in a handout distributed today at an industry summit in Beijing.

Saudi Aramco to Cut December Crude Oil Supplies to Asia by as Much as 6% Saudi Aramco, the world's biggest state oil company, will cut crude supplies to Asia in December for the first time in at least a year as demand slumps for naphtha and diesel fuel.

Gold Advances in London Trading as Higher Oil, Weaker Dollar Boost Demand Gold rose for a second day in London as higher crude-oil prices and a weaker dollar boosted demand for the metal as a hedge against inflation.

Finally, in Sunday's New York Times, Al Gore proposes "a five-part plan to repower America with a commitment to producing 100% of our electricity from carbon-free sources within 10 years."

Auto Makers Are Out Of Gas

ETF Innovators — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 05:36:00 +0000

Auto Makers Are Out Of Gas The 30 lowest rated companies in the ETFI Global Auto Makers Index and short ETF proposal lost an astonishing 63.9% in market value over the past year, compared to a loss of 37% each for the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) and the Consumer Discretionary Sector SPDR [...]