We maintain a market-neutral Hold recommendation on PG&E Corporation (PCG) common stock with a six-month target price of $41.25. Price appreciation to our near-term valuation target, coupled with a quarterly cash dividend of $0.39 per share, which we deem secure and sustainable, given reasonable projected payouts and the accretive effect of share repurchases, represents annualized total return potential of 12.9%.
Going forward, positive investment factors, including favorable decisions from California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) including a CPUC authorized 11.35% return-on-equity (ROE) until 2010, long-term supply agreements, diversification into alternative power sources and infrastructure improvement programs such as the Cornerstone, Smart Meter and Tesla generating stations, will be partially offset by risks including rising natural gas prices, increased purchased power cost, higher pension costs, settlement of regulatory assets and an over-leveraged balance sheet.
The company has $13 billion of planned capital expenditures in the pipeline
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