Byron King, Whiskey and Gunpowder Let’s review the big picture for gold. What’s going on? And what are people saying?

For much of 2009, gold traded in the range of low-mid $900 per ounce. There was a dip over the summer, with a strong upswing starting in September. Gold is now trading well over $1,000 per ounce, in fact just under $1,100.

Turns out that the government of India was buying gold in mid-October. Over a two-week span, the central bank of India bought 200 tonnes (metric tons) of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at an average price of $1,045. The IMF — over which the U.S. holds veto power for most actions — got approval to sell the gold from — where else? — the U.S. Congress, last spring.

Previously, the government of India held 350 tonnes of gold reserves. This 200-tonne purchase is a 57% increase in India’s

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Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), the world’s largest pure-play gold miner, is about to make a very big bet on gold prices going higher. The company announced this week it will raise as much as $4 billion in a stock issuance and use the proceeds to pay off its gold hedges. In other words, Barrick is willing to give their shareholders the short-term shaft in order to rid themselves of all bets against gold.

“It’s nothing but bullish for gold,” says our resident mining watchdog, Byron King. Barrick evidently believes that the future price of gold is heading up. So Barrick wants to eliminate the drag of lower-priced hedges, presently covering 9.5 million ounces of future output.

“The math works out to about $370 per ounce, hedged. Barrick must think that it’ll make it all back in the future, out of higher gold prices — $1,350 per ounce and more.

“The other side of

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Is the recession technically over? The strongest argument for recovery we’ve seen yet… Rob Parenteau shares his new macro economic forecast… “Told you so!” writes Byron King — “breaking news” he and The 5 scooped in March 2008… Plus, Chris Mayer’s latest contrarian play…

Our forecast today: The government and mainstream media will soon be calling the end of the recession. Leading this feeble cause is the latest ISM manufacturing index, probably the most powerful argument for recovery we’ve seen yet:

This morning, the ISM said its gauge of manufacturing activity had risen to 52.9 in August – out of contraction for the first time since the recession began and the highest score since June 2007. Of course, things are a bit different now, but over the last 60 years, when the manufacturing sector returns to growth, the recession has already ended. That prospect

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Chinese stocks plummet, worldly markets follow… what’s behind today’s sell-off… Dan Denning on taking profits in the twilight of the U.S. stock rebound… India reports better-than-expected GDP growth… why our Mumbai partners are still hesitant… Another compelling argument against U.S. banks… Dan Amoss serves the cold, hard data… Plus, signs of the times: American’s vote to throw the bums out while the free market backlash hits Hollywood…

China has once again set the tone for our Monday market forecast. Roll the videotape:

Chinese traders dumped shares early this morning after a popular magazine rumored that the booming Chinese loan market is cooling off. Caijing magazine guessed that the Chinese loaned about $29 billion in August, a 43% crash from July. While that number isn’t official, traders around the red nation raced for the exits. The Shanghai Composite closed down 6.7%, its worst day in

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Recently, I had the unique opportunity to tour two different oil sands operations near Fort McMurray, in northern Alberta. I saw a massive open-pit oil sands mine, and the associated reclamation effort, operated by Syncrude Canada Ltd. I also visited an in situ oil sands recovery project called Surmont, operated by ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP).

The trip was sponsored by the American Petroleum Institute (API), which paid for the airfare and accommodations. Managers at both Syncrude and ConocoPhillips granted me access to any parts of their operations I wanted to see (within allowances for safety). And everyone answered any and all questions I asked.

Post-trip, I have complete editorial freedom to write about what I saw and learned. And I learned a lot. So this is Part I of a two-part series. Watch for Part II.

The Past and Future of Oil and Oil Sands

The first thing that struck me about visiting

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Government budget hits all-time insanity… record monthly, year-to-date deficits… “Cash for clunkers” helps GM, but not economy… July retail sales stage surprise fall… Fed plans exit strategy, ends bond buys… why the FOMC is still not helping you… Byron King’s crude reality: How Canada could be the next Saudi Arabia…

It’s official: Our government ran a record $180.7 billion over budget in July, the Treasury Department said today. That’s just a bit over Wall Street expectations and just under the Congressional Budget Office estimate we reported Monday. Thus the government tab so far this fiscal year is a record $1.27 trillion, not the record $1.3 trillion the CBO guessed earlier this week. Phew… what a relief.

A few more scary details:

The budget deficit is still on track to exceed $1.8 trillion by October, the end of the fiscal year. That would be four times last year’s record budget July spending rose to over ...

Do you remember this time last year? As spring turned to summer, energy prices were moving upward. By mid-July 2008, oil prices peaked at $147 per barrel. But as with Gen. Pickett and his famous charge at Gettysburg, that lofty level of $147 was the high-water mark for oil prices.

By August of last year, the price of oil was retreating, and it was a hard slog on the way down. By midwinter, in December 2008 and January 2009, oil prices were in the $30s per barrel - a drop of over 75% within six months. It was a wild ride.

Natural gas had a similar rise and fall last year. In July 2008, the NYMEX price for natural gas was around $13 per mcf (thousand cubic feet). By October 2008, that price was cut in half. In fact, natural gas prices trended down throughout the chilly winter of 2008-2009. The current

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China turns it up another notch… now “concerned about the security” of U.S. investments… Chris Mayer tells the “story of today’s economy”… Mainstream celebrates latest home price index… our perceptive on the housing “recovery”… Three market sectors currently detached from reality… The truth emerges… why Ben Bernanke really bailed out Wall Street…

Here it comes, slowly but surely: “We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit will be reduced, year after year,” China’s Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said overnight after talks with Treasury Secretary Geithner. Could he lay it out any more clearly than this? “The Chinese government is a responsible government, and first and foremost our responsibility is the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese assets.”

The Chinese now own over $801 billion in U.S. debt, nearly double their holdings at the start of 2007 and by far the world’s largest

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Resource legend tips his hat to three soon-to-bubble sectors… The housing market has “bottomed out” says PNC… our gentle retort… Alan Knuckman with an economic indicator far superior to unemployment: chicken sales… Our panel of “whiskey shooters” on the worst-case scnerio… how to get out of Dodge if the dollar collapses… Britian now REALLY in crisis… recession, taxes cause wave of pub shutdowns…

Let’s make some trades this morning. We asked Rick Rule, a living legend here in Vancouver, what’s the next bubble market? “The Canadian market does not care about small oil and gas companies,” he told us yesterday. “Which means that small Canadian O&G companies are selling for 50-60% of net asset value. They are very, very, very cheap. They are unloved, with no finance options and no trading liquidity… and I love that. This value is free. There will be much money made in small-cap

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Idiocracy in action: Congress blocks bill to audit the Fed… No surprise: American loan defaults hit record… Surprise: Could Canadians be next? China takes another “World’s No. 1” from U.S. … Dan Denning, Byron King on recent triumph and tragedy in the oil patch…

Great news: The Federal Reserve will retain its right to operate in secrecy.

“Thank God for Rule 16!”

Late yesterday, the Senate majority put the kibosh on a last-hour provision in the 2010 spending bill that would audit the Fed. Not because it’s a bad idea… but because of the arcane Rule 16, which prohibits policy legislation from being added to spending bills. (The kind of “rule” that’s only evoked when the majority gets uncomfortable.)

“The Federal Reserve will create and disburse trillions of dollars in response to our current financial crisis,” said Sen. Jim DeMint, who spearheaded

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