In September, the Producer Price Index rose by 0.3%. While this is an acceleration from the 0.6% decline in September, it is well below consensus expectations of a 0.5% increase. All of the price pressures were coming from food and energy. If they are stripped out to get the Core Producer Price Index, prices fell by 0.6% for the month -- a much faster decline than the 0.1% decline last month, and even farther below the consensus expectations of a 0.1% increase for the month. Both food and energy rose by 1.6% at the finished level in September. For energy, though, it was just a partial reversal of the 2.4% decline in September. In September, finished food prices fell only 0.1%. On a year-over-year basis, the total Producer Price Index is down 1.9%. However, last month the year-over-year decline was 4.8%. Thus on a year-over-year basis, the ...

For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – November 5, 2009 – Zacks Equity Research highlights Novatel Wireless (NVTL) as the Bull of the Day and The Corporate Executive Board (EXBD) the Bear of the Day. In addition, Zacks Equity Research provides analysis on Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Kraft Foods (KFT).

Full analysis of all these stocks is available at http://at.zacks.com/?id=5506

Here is a synopsis of all five stocks:

Bull of the Day:

We upgrade our recommendation for Novatel Wireless (NVTL) to Outperform following the blockbuster financial results of its third quarter 2009.

We expect the top-line of Novatel to maintain its current growth rate supported by strong demand for MiFi mobile intelligent hotspot and USB modems.

The company has generated a record-high level of free cash flow and significantly improved its gross margin. In addition, the company

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This morning, Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the biggest payroll processing firm, estimated that the economy lost 203,000 private sector jobs in October. That was more than the consensus estimate of 190,000 jobs lost. However, the September job loss numbers were revised to a loss of just 227,000 from the original read of 254,000. Thus the losses are coming from a higher base level, and if the revisions are included, this report was in line with consensus or perhaps a bit better. Still, it indicates that while the economy might be expanding, employment isn’t. However, this is the seventh straight month where ADP has seen fewer jobs lost than the month before. This is similar to the pattern that we saw following the last two recessions. While employment has always been considered a lagging indicator, it has been becoming more so with each passing decade. In part ...

With the price of bullion at all-time highs, therersquo;s a raging debate on gold as an investment ndash; is it overbought or can it go still higher? Whatrsquo;s the inflation risk to the dollar? Should we be more worried about deflation? Every Friday we try to address the factors affecting gold in our award-winning Investor Alert, which recaps the week just ended and also looks forward to provide insights on what might lie ahead. Along with gold, the Investor Alert covers energy and natural resources, global emerging markets, domestic equities and the bond market. We encourage everyone with an interest in our key sectors to join the 23,000-plus individual investors who now subscribe to the Investor Alert and the 10,000 investment professionals who receive its sister publication, the Advisor Alert. Signup is free and easy ndash; just follow the appropriate link. To give you an idea of the Investor/Advisor Alertrsquo;s value, here are ...

With the price of bullion at all-time highs, therersquo;s a raging debate on gold as an investment ndash; is it overbought or can it go still higher? Whatrsquo;s the inflation risk to the dollar? Should we be more worried about deflation? Every Friday we try to address the factors affecting gold in our award-winning Investor Alert, which recaps the week just ended and also looks forward to provide insights on what might lie ahead. Along with gold, the Investor Alert covers energy and natural resources, global emerging markets, domestic equities and the bond market. We encourage everyone with an interest in our key sectors to join the 23,000-plus individual investors who now subscribe to the Investor Alert and the 10,000 investment professionals who receive its sister publication, the Advisor Alert. Signup is free and easy ndash; just follow the appropriate link. To give you an idea of the Investor/Advisor Alertrsquo;s value, here are ...

Did You Hear That Big Thud?

by Robert Williams, Publisher

It’s incredible how fast the tables can turn sometimes. Eighteen months ago, at the height of the Agriboom, supply shortages turned our nation’s farms into virtual ATMs.

Farmers couldn’t grow their respective crops fast enough. Farm incomes were pushed about 30% higher than the average wage for all workers. And thanks to the accompanying rise in property values, the average net worth of a full-time farmer mushroomed to $830,000. (U.S. farmers earned a record $80.4 billion after expenses in 2008.)

Even colleges with Agricultural majors saw big upticks in enrollment.

Well, proving again that trends typically swing back to their historical means, we recently got the latest data on farming. And it isn’t good for farmers.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects farm income this year –

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This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Michael Ehrmann and Panagiota Tzamourani (European Central Bank): Memories of high inflation, September 2009. Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This paper tests whether memories of high inflation affect agents’ preferences about the importance attached to price stability, using a large database covering over 52,000 survey responses from 23 countries over the years 1981-2000. It finds that memories of hyperinflation are there to last, whereas those of less drastic inflation experiences tend to erode after around 10 to 15 years. The recent decline in

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Despite the seemingly bad jobs number we had earlier today, one has to step back and assess the bigger picture. The numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show blips (red circles in the image below) in the recovery, but still the general trend (green slope) is intact. The perma-bears are celebrating on this blip, as shown by this writeup from David Rosenberg: "There's no other way to describe the U.S. employment report that was just released for September. And guess what? The rose-colored glass donning set of economists who have been talking about sequential improvement in the data and how "less negative" the employment numbers have become can't say that after today (thank the good lord). That's because at -263,000 on nonfarm payrolls, instead of the -175,000 print that was widely expected, we actually saw sequential deterioration for the ...

What group can claim credit for being the driving force behind the world’s largest economy? Hint: You are probably a member of this group.

The answer is U.S. consumers, whose spending is responsible for more than 70% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). As we’ve seen in recent years, when consumer conditions are bad, the effects can be widespread. If consumer spending falters, it affects business income and tax revenues. If revenues fall far enough, the effects can include increased unemployment, which in turn exaggerates the problem because the unemployed have reduced incomes and tend to make fewer purchases.

Economists, traders, investors, and policymakers all take great interest in the financial health of consumers and what they may do next. Here are some popular indicators of consumer behavior.

The Monthly Retail Trade Survey is conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which mails questionnaires to about 12,500 businesses. The Census Bureau uses the data

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The U.S. workers' compensation insurance market experienced an underwriting loss in 2008. The softening of premium rates along with an increase in overall loss costs have contributed to this decline in underwriting performance. Payrolls are decreasing more rapidly than insurers projected. Along with unemployment, the industry is facing also reduced working hours, no replacement of natural attrition and wage reductions. According to the unemployment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in early September, 466,000 jobs were reduced by employers in August and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7%. A widespread job bust that spanned major industry sectors saw 14.9 million unemployed in August. About 7.4 million people have become jobless since the recession began in December 2007, while the unemployment rate has grown by 4.8 percentage points. Although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors in ...