China’s Impact on the Global Economy: A Symposium
Menzie Chinn (August 6th, 2009) Writes:
As attested to by the large amount of coverage of the recent US-China Strategic and Economic Dialog [0] [1], [2], [3], [4],[5] China looms large in any discussion of the world economy. One of the most important contributors to the informed discussion on this subject was Brad Setser, at the Council on Foreign Affairs and before that at RGE Monitor. Unfortunately, Dr. Setser will be leaving the blogosphere, so his insights will be missed (although fortunately for us, he'll be adding his input at the NEC, where we all wish him well).
So now, there'll be even a greater need for reasoned analysis. One addition to the discussion is a Symposium on China's impact on the global economy just published in Pacific Economic Review (August 2009). From my introductory chapter to the symposium:
Over the past decade, China's presence
...Beijing, Brad Setser, CEPII, Charles P. Thomas, China, China, Council on Foreign Affairs, Council On Foreign Relations, Dan Rosen, David Folkerts-Landau, Deutsche Bank, Economics, empirical applications, Europe, federal reserve board, Francois Lescaroux, George Mason University;, Harvard University, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Monetary Fund, Jaime Marquez, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Joshua Aizenman;, low technology exports, Market Commentary, Michael Dooley, Mike Dooley, NEC, Oecd, oil price shock, oil price shock leads, Oil Prices, Oil Producing Countries, Peter Garber, president, producer, RIETI, Rob Feenstra, Sean Fahle, Shang-Jin Wei, Steven Dunaway, SUNY;, Texas, United States, University of Paris Ouest, University of Texas, Valerie Mignon, Yin-Wong Cheung


![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif)
Figure 1: Bilateral nominal USD/CNY exchange rate, period average (blue, left scale), log IMF trade weighted real effective CNY (red, right scale), and log BIS trade weighted real effective CNY (green, right scale). Bilateral exchange rate adjusted for swap center rates used before 1994; see Fernald, Edison, Loungani (JIMF, 1999) for details. Source: St. Louis Fed FREDII, IMF, BIS, and author's calculations.

Figure 1: US dollar (blue, right scale), US dollar plus 60% of unallocated reserves (green, right scale), and log nominal value of US dollar against major currencies (red, left scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source:
Figure 2: US dollar reserves (blue), ... 
Figure 1: Net International Investment Position, end-year (blue squares), and Cumulative Current Account balance on a NIPA basis (red line), as a ratio to GDP. NBER recession dates in gray shading. Sources:
Figure 1: US dollar (blue), euro (red), sum of Deutsche mark, French franc, ... 
Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized growth of real goods imports ex.-oil (bold red), and of real goods exports (bold blue); and year-on-year growth rates (respectively teal, purple); all in Ch.2000$, calculated as log differences. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray, assuming recession has not ended by May 2009. Source: BEA/Census, March trade release, NBER, and author's calculations.
