For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 19, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Eastman Chemical (EMN), E.I. DuPont (DD), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Western Digital (WDC) and SuperValu (SVU). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

Third-quarter earnings season hits full stride this week with 439 companies confirmed to report. More than of a quarter of these are from the S&P 500 (135 companies).

Housing data will be the highlight on the economic calendar. The existing home sales data will be influenced by the first-time home buyers' credit. The starts and permits data could be more interesting, especially if they show fear on the part of builders about the subsidy

By Morris A. Davis

Today, we're fortunate to have Morris A. Davis, Assistant Professor of Real Estate and Urban Land Economics at University of Wisconsin School of Business, as a guest contributor.

Research by economists inside the Federal Reserve system have shown that two events typically lead homeowners to default on their mortgage (see here). First, the value of the house must be less than the value of the mortgage ("under water"). This is necessary but not sufficient (see here). Second, homeowners must experience a significant disruption and loss of income. The available data suggest there might be a big increase in foreclosures in the immediate future. Zillow estimates that 22 percent of the 50 million homeowners with mortgages are currently under water; unemployment rates are high and are expected to remain high for the next two years.

Why

I will probably have something to say on yet another week of tumultuous events and interesting comments; in particular I think that Krugman and Wolf may soon, very soon, be getting to the crux of things.

Meanwhile, I want to pass on one of Felix Salmon’s latest posts in which he treats the issue of replicability in academic research. Clearly, this is an important issue and not only one of integrity but also one of honesty and simple code-of-conduct. Felix begins …

Falsifiability and replicability are key cornerstones of any academic research. If you’re running an empirical study, and your results aren’t replicable, your study is largely worthless.

I would like to see any researcher disagree with this although I suspect that many economists may silently, or not, retort that sometimes the theory is enough in itself. Ok, that is fair enough even if I think that these endless

…

Further evidence that the small business segment of the economy is undergoing stress. From the ADP National Employment Report:

[Joel] Prakken added, "This month's employment loss was driven by the goods-producing sector which declined 126,000 during October, its twenty-third consecutive monthly decline. The manufacturing sector marked its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, losing 85,000 jobs. These losses were compounded by an employment decline in the service-providing sector of the economy which fell by 31,000, the first loss in the serviceproviding sector recorded by the ADP Report since November of 2002."

"Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 41,000, while medium-size companies with between 50 and 499 workers declined 91,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 25,000. This is the first outright decline in small business employment reported by the ADP Report since November of 2002, and the largest percentage decline since the economy was emerging from recession