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Reforms and Military Defeat

Robert Amsterdam (October 9th, 2009) Writes:
While my editor was busily working away yesterday, Ariel Cohen had an opinion piece run in the New York Times.  Upon seeing the headline and lede, I was worried that we were going to see yet another one of those "there's a rift between Putin and Medvedev"-type articles which we have seen so much of over the past year, but Cohen is a little more careful than that in his argument.  Of course Medvedev's "Forward, Russia!" article and the quip about the blood tests have clearly illustrated that he feels, or wants us to believe that he feels, that he is a different kind of leader from Putin.  However, as Ariel's op/ed points out, this is all just a rhetorical exercise for the time being, so long as the reformers are without influence.

Some symbolic rifts have also

...

How Russia Sees Iran’s Nuke Threat

Robert Amsterdam (October 3rd, 2009) Writes:
Fred Hiatt of the Washington Post has a new column which digs up a number of quotes from American officials over the years which illustrate how often they have been willing to assume a certain level of rational thinking going on inside the Kremlin with regard to Iran.  Just because it is technically in Russia's interests to not have Iran possessing nuclear weapons, doesn't mean that they will act on those interests.

It might be, for example, that Russia understands the value of keeping Iran nuclear-free, but values even more the fruits of its commercial and military trade with Iran.

It might be that Russia believes that the stalemate status quo is pretty close to ideal. Iran can be delayed in its progress toward nuclear status but also prevented from normalizing relations with the United States and the West. And as long as those relations are

...

RA’s Daily Russian News Blast – September 22, 2009

Robert Amsterdam (September 22nd, 2009) Writes:
PH2009092101816.jpg TODAY: Chief of staff denies decisions on Kaliningrad plan; Churkin criticizes US 'cold war attitude'; arms reduction talks not progressing as smoothly as they may appear.  Israel maintains choice in Iran; Russia suggests onus on NATO to improve ties; ship plans for Abkhaz waters.  Moscow court rejects appeal for Vasily Aleksanyan; 'anti-Soviet' restaurant feels Mitvol's wrath.Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin has said that US Defense Secretary Robert Gates's insistence that the decision on missile defense was not about Russia reveals 'a rather difficult negotiating partner, a partner who is loaded in many ways by a Cold War mentality'.  The Chief of Russia's general Staff has stated that no decision has yet been made on plans to deploy ...

Russia’s Tough Guise

Robert Amsterdam (August 19th, 2009) Writes:
torso081909.jpgDuring the first Vladimir Putin all-nude-revue extravaganza, we dutifully posted plenty of the photos with acerbic commentary.  The second time around, not so much.  Been there, done that.  I trust that the readers of this blog were able to stumble across one of the many articles containing the new series of photos, along with stories and rumors about Putin's growing fan base among a new community.What on earth must be going through his head when he makes these photo op decisions, I shudder to think...  Nevertheless, there are some who see the latest topless photo series as a concrete precursor to another presidential run from Putin, such as this piece published in the Canadian magazine Maclean's ...

The Benevolent Tsar and the Unruly Noblemen

Robert Amsterdam (August 18th, 2009) Writes:
From Nikolai Petrov's column in the Moscow Times:

President Dmitry Medvedev, however, has not been able to manage a similar line of communication with the people, even with the careful selection of participants and the prior agreement of questions. So Medvedev has not followed in the path of his more telegenic and smooth predecessor with the call-in shows.

Another type of show was created for Medvedev -- gatherings of citizens for meetings heavily laden with regional officials. This is a tasteless show that could be titled "The Benevolent Tsar and the Unruly Noblemen" and involves the public flogging of poorly performing officials. Designed for cheap popularity, the show repeats a provincial recipe for simple populism that was used by governors like Ulyanovsk's Yury Goryachev during the era of President Boris Yeltsin. Now that's a novel example of the Kremlin borrowing an innovative idea from the regions!

...

How Equity And Currency Markets Behave After Financial Crisis

John Lee (June 2nd, 2009) Writes:

Debt-based monetary systems are inherently unstable. Money is created out of thin air by the banks and lent to government, consumers and businesses. In order to service and replay those debts, the borrowers take on more debts. Asset prices are inflated, and the vicious cycle continues until the debtors are unable to borrow or the banks are unwilling to lend. At that point the system snaps, everything is sold off, and we have a financial crisis at hand. In this paper we examine what happens to equity and currency markets in the aftermath of financial crisis.

1998 Russia

Declining productivity, an artificially high fixed exchange rate between the ruble and foreign currencies to avoid public turmoil, and a chronic fiscal deficit were the background to Russia ’s financial meltdown in 1998. The economic cost of the first war in Chechnya that …

Trouble Ahead for the Tandemocracy

Robert Amsterdam (April 27th, 2009) Writes:
Interesting piece by Pavel K. Baev at Eurasia Daily Monitor today:Berdimuhamedov apparently presumes that Gazprom is not what it used to be, while probably not reflecting much on the predicament of his own gas-centric mono-state. Gazprom is indeed so tightly integrated into Russia's structures of governance that it is affected by the general economic downturn -even if the world energy prices have stabilized. Forecasts for the Russian economy are revised almost weekly -and invariably for the worse. The GDP decline in the first quarter has been corrected from 7.2 percent to 9.5 percent, so the Ministry for Economic Development now predicts a 6 percent contraction for the year (Kommersant, April 24). These macro-figures imply a 30 to 40 percent reduction in the state budget income, and if in the current year the government aims at minimal cuts in spending, covering the deficit from the accumulated reserves, by 2010 this policy will ...

Grigory Pasko: New and Old Enemies of the People

Robert Amsterdam (November 11th, 2008) Writes:
12_10_014.jpg...And 70,000 "Enemies of the People" Grigory Pasko, journalist Если Вы хотите прочитать оригинал данной статьи на русском языке, нажмите сюда. On the internet you can find even today a list of enemies of the Russian people. I write the word "enemies" without quotation marks, just like it’s written on the site. It was written long ago: this list has been hanging there since the year 2005. Three years it’s been there. And it doesn’t appear to bother any one within the power. The list was prepared by a former (at that time – current) State Duma deputy, a certain Kuryanovich. On the list are 100 people: politicians, journalists, human rights advocates… Boris Yeltsin, Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Nemtsov, Irina Hakamada, Yegor Gaidar, Anatoly Chubais, Sergey Kovalev, Svetlana Gannushkina… The journalists Latynina, Minkin, Radzikhovsky, Panyushkin. ...

I’m too sexy for this Kremlin

Robert Amsterdam (September 5th, 2008) Writes:
Who says the Associated Press doesn't produce hard hitting reports from Russia anymore? Wow, Putin is having a rough couple of months here... In its September "Sexy Rating" list, the glamor magazine ranks who it considers the 20 sexiest Russian politicians. At the top is Boris Nemtsov, a former leader of opposition party Union of the Right Forces now viewed by many as a spent force. It is rare that Putin loses out at home. A winner abroad — selected as Time's person of the year in 2007, and Vanity Fair's most powerful and influential figure of the year this month — Putin courts widespread popularity at home, having restored a sense of national pride and stability after the difficult post-Soviet years of Boris Yeltsin's rule. "This is good news ... but I don't take it too seriously," said Nemtsov, who is pictured sitting on a bed, barefoot and dressed in ...

RA’s Daily Russia News Blast – Aug 29, 2008

Robert Amsterdam (August 29th, 2008) Writes:
newsblast082808.jpgIn a recent commentary penned by Financial Times columnist Philip Stevens, the argument is made that Russia's ultimate goal is to turn back the clock: to extend his (Putin) country’s borders to create the greater Russia sought by the leaders of the abortive coup against Boris Yeltsin in 1991. The actions documented today further that argument, and may serve as catalysts to the ultimate conglomeration. Annexation coming? Znaur Gassiyev, the Speaker of South Ossetia’s parliament, said the enclave would formally join Russia "in several years" or possibly earlier. This had been "firmly stated by both leaders” during their meeting in Moscow. Tarzan Kokoiti, the deputy Speaker, later predicted: “We will live in one united Russian state.”

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