Long time readers will know this is about the 678,211,121st (give or take) time I've cut back the fertilizer names as they break support at the 50 day moving average, only to reverse on me within days. [Jul 7: Cutting Some Fertilizer Exposure] I even wrote in that entryHistorically you want to buy them when they touch the 50 day moving average since they bounce, but with the market acting so poorly we could get some washout action.So ONCE AGAIN - I am repeating the same pattern, and with egg on face buying back what I sold - luckily I sold right near support so we are paying almost the same price to get the position back. It would of been nice to of bought on yesterday mornings dip but I was greedy ...

Continuing the theme of avoiding the stronger sectors and buying some weaker areas, I had almost bought Canadian Solar (CSIQ) just a few weeks ago in the mid $30s - it ramped to low $50s, and a missed opportunity went by the wayside. [Jun 17: Canadian Solar (CSIQ) Raises Guidance]It has now pulled back 30% from its high of $52 two weeks ago, and this appears to the be the market's current favorite - the only chart I can find in the sector where the stock has not broken the 50 day moving average. This is not my favorite name in the sector fundamentally - a huge amount of their last earnings were nothing more than currency gains - but the market doesn't peek beneath the hood to realize that, so we'll go with the market. And frankly, all that I've gained from buying ...

Impressive bounce off that 1260 level on the S&P. Like a magnet the market bounced to S&P 1275…. (thanks PPT) and away we go to 1280s. Reader Shax is happy and smug somewhere in Asia with his 100% long exposure. I just cannot see a break through that 1260 on the first attempt with all the King’s Horses and all the King’s Men here to socialize the market, all over again. They have charts too and realize how important this level is. It’s going to take repeated attempts I believe, to break through their purchasing power.Frankly at this point we have 2 outcomes (a) crash i.e. a 10% drop in the markets (June) followed by even more rampant selling layered on top or (b) an oversold bounce.I wrote last week I was done for now with Ultrashort Financial (SKF) as …

We discussed this name earlier this week as a wind play... [Jun 10: American Superconductor (AMSC) with $450 Million Follow up Order from China]Much like Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) (which I highlighted in early May in the upper $40s, and is now in the mid $60s) this has been a "hope" company for a long time - long on promise, but short on execution. [May 8: Energy Conversion Devices - Is the Turnaround Finally Here?] But we've seen how the ship has appeared to come in for ENER, and perhaps the ship is coming in for controversial AMSC as well. They received a huge follow up order today. This appears to be a 3 year contract for $450 million. Considering the company is only doing under $200 million in revenue in total this year, the magnitude of this contract is enormous for this size of ...

Again, I cannot short individual names but I would of liked to short Apple (AAPL) for the near term as I wrote a few days ago [Jun 9: Apple Buy the Rumor, Sell the News?]Don't look now but this chart has all the makings of a double top. I can't short individual names, but this might be a short term short, at least until the $160-$170 range.... in lieu of that I have just cut back the long position, awaiting lower entry points to rebuy. We'll see if I get one.We are down to the first support, 50 day moving average ($172) so I am beginning to rebuy, but only a bit here since this is definitely a double top we have formed. I'd much prefer the 200 day moving average of $161 (or lower - maybe low to mid $150s would be ...

Ctrip.com (CTRP) is an interesting thesis right here - one could make an arguement that as China slows so will travel, but it is all relative ("slowing" in China is a very different proposition than the US - i.e. GDP dropping from 12% growth to 6% growth would seem like a recession for them, while in the US we would dream for 6% growth). That said a major risk would be the post Olympics removal of energy subsidies which would put a serious crimp in the growth story there. We shall see how it plays out. All I know is for nearly 5 years, when I buy Ctrip.com on dips I am always rewarded over time - even though it is ALWAYS expensive on a P/E basis. Much like the DryShips purchase I don't expect any huge rebound anytime soon, and thus I am (as always) ...

In this environment, unlike most of the past 2 months we have to pick spots and assume our purchases (as we layer in) will lose money in the near term. This is different than when we buy a pullback in a market that is generally in an uptrend (mid March to late May) - where when you make a purchase on a pullback, you expect a quick bounce. So with that in mind, I am continuing to rebuild a position in DryShips (DRYS), the dry bulk shipper (with deep sea drilling thrown in); but not expecting any sustained move up in the near term. But my first buy target has been reached, so I am executing a purchase.Now, as the rest of Wall Street joins my thesis (eventually) of a global slowdown these stocks could take it on the chin from a perception point ...

Latin America internet player Mercadolibre (MELI) is one volatile stock... every time it weakens we get commentary about a coming secondary (which they tried to price in the past, but withdrew) - eventually I assume it will happen. But for now, we just like to layer in on dips, and layer out on strength. The chart is quite poor as the stock has broken all major key support levels but with the stock down 15% from its peak Friday (and 30% from its peak), I made some purchases this morning in the $40s/$41s, taking the stake up from 0.7% to 1.5% of the portfolio. Due to the bipolar nature of this stock it is hard to tuck this away as a buy and hold; not to mention a very pricey multiple. So we'll pick our spots and when some of our holdings, especially ones we've cut ...

I am really gritting my teeth at this missed opportunity for Trina Solar (TSL) management to finally reward its shareholders... some of which have been sticking with (or around) them since last summer, only to be disappointed time after time. My long term thesis on this name has not changed, and I believe the 2nd half of the year will be explosive. It still trades at a huge discount to the group, which most likely is (a) management discount - a leadership team that loves to surprise us with new adventures that no one else in the group embarks upon - Wall Street however hates surprises and (b) potential dilutive equity offering to fund 2009 operations coming later in the year. While most people would be more concerned with (b), I am more concerned with (a). Last year they surprised the Street with a big annual ...

I really like Chinese gaming company Perfect World (PWRD) from a fundamental perspective; after selling off from its guidance after a very good earnings report [May 19: Perfect World - Good Earnings, Light Guidance - Buying the Dip] the stock spent a few days in purgatory before making a nice rebound. However, at this point technically we have some technical resistance ahead, both the 50 and 200 day moving averages lie ahead; the 50 day in the $26s and the 200 day around $27. Honestly this is as perfect of a setup as you could ask for from a technical perspective. Sell now right below resistance areas, and rebuy either (a) on a move over $27 or (b) on a pullback. So I'm executing the first part of that strategy (sell) here around $26.20... then for the second part (buy back), if the stock ...