406 Days Until This Market Crashes…

by Robert Williams, Publisher Friday, November 20, 2009

David Fessler has a sector that warrants your attention. But first, I want to officially raise a red flag in another market.

Something’s amiss in the municipal bond market. Year-to-date, “munies” have behaved more like momentum stocks than their intended purpose of providing a safe yield.

Consider this: A handful of closed-end muni funds have averaged a 46% return so far this year.

The rally, of course, was borne out of the financial crisis, when investors and institutions alike went furiously scrambling to safety.

The novice move was into cash. But the smart money flowed strategically into the bond market. And a lot of the action was in municipal bonds. (The junk bond market is similarly overheated.)

What’s noteworthy, however, is that when the market’s

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Reports have emerged following yesterday's meeting between 'comfortable' duo Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Yulia Tymoshenko.  Bloomberg says Putin's announcement that Ukraine would not be penalized for consuming less gas than was contracted was warmly received by Tymoshenko, who pledged that payments would be made on time.  'It would be very good to meet the New Year without calamities,' Putin said, guaranteeing stable supplies (click here for some transit figures).  This exchange was overshadowed by Medvedev's advisor in Moscow, who reportedly complained about 'political blackmail' in light of Tymoshenko's decision to increase transit fees earlier this week. The Guardian points out that TNK-BP's new chief executive, the choice of its oligarch board, is 'inexperienced', but BP insists that it was not 'steamrollered' into accepting him.  Russia's stepped-up pledge for emissions reductions is drawing positive reports.  ...

November 18, 2009
By Gary Grimes
Please understand that this article is about more than safeguarding your money; it’s about saving you headache and heartache. It’s about giving you peace of mind.

Before I explain, please allow me to ask a few questions:

Have you given much thought about the money in your banking accounts lately? Do you know if it’s safe?
Have you thought about what might happen if your bank fails?
Did you know you could be left in the lurch for days, weeks, even months before you get your money back from the FDIC?
What happens if the FDIC can’t cover your funds?
How do you find a safe bank to protect your deposits right now?

I hope you’ve given these questions some serious thought.

I have to be honest: These questions were about the farthest things from my mind until about a year ago, when …

By Bob Blandeburgo Associate Editor Money Morning

Stimulus measures in Japan helped the world’s second-largest economy grow at its fastest pace in more than two years, but it’s unlikely policymakers will reduce spending despite the nation’s rapidly growing debt.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Japan grew at 4.8% annual rate in the third quarter, surpassing all the forecasts of 20 economists polled by Bloomberg News. That follows a revised gain of 2.7% in the three months ended June 30, according to Japan’s Cabinet Office. Japan’s economy grew 1.2% on a quarterly basis.

“The turnaround in public investment has definitely contributed to the rebound in GDP, so if they do start to cut it’ll weigh on growth,” Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief Japan economist at Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS), told Bloomberg.

Stimulus measures around the world helped Japan’s exports grow 6.4%, but as global economies withdraw stimulus measures,

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By Don Miller Associate Editor Money Morning

U.S. retail sales rose unexpectedly in October as vehicle sales rebounded from a deep slump. However, non-auto sales rose less than forecast, suggesting consumers remain cautious as unemployment surges amid a “jobless recovery.”

Sales at the nation’s retail outlets increased 1.4%, the Commerce Department said today (Monday), much better than the 0.9% increase projected by the median estimate of 66 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. But September sales were revised downwards to a 2.3% decrease from the previous estimate of a 1.5% decline.

Aside from automobiles, other sales rose just 0.2%. That increase marked the third month in a row that sales rose, but failed to meet the 0.4% climb economists had predicted.

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Are you sold on gold? The precious metal outperformed every major equity index in the world in 2008. The question is, can gold—and other precious metals—keep on flying? Or would buying today be buying high and selling low?

Precious metals have always been intriguing to investors because they tend to hold their value. In times of geopolitical crisis or currency devaluation, for example, the value of paper money might fluctuate, but a hard asset will always be worth something. As a result, historically, precious metals have been considered a “safe haven” in times of economic and financial instability.

That brings us to why gold is on a tear today. It declined in 2008 and early 2009 as panicked investors rushed into cash in an attempt to weather the financial crisis. But sometime in the middle on 2009, when investors began to move their money from the sidelines, gold started to rally.

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• Boeing's (NYSE:BA) new head of its commercial aircraft division, Jim Albaugh, said the long-awaited Dreamliner test will happen by yearend

• Citigroup (NYSE:C) plans to sell Bellsystem 24, a Japanese telemarketing company, to Bain Capital for $1 billion, bringing to $10.8 billion the dollar amount Citi has raised from sales of Japanese assets

• Hedge fund Paulson & Co. reported in a September 30 filing Citigroup (NYSE:C) holdings of 300 million shares, valued at $1.45 billion

• Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) raised its bid for Tandberg ASA to $3.4 billion, or about an 11% increase, and extended its offer to December 1

• According to a Bloomberg report, Mitsubishi UFJ has hired JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) to manage an $11 billion secondary offering, Japan's largest ever. The company plans to sell about 2.5 billion common shares

• Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) said it plans to spin off its 83% stake in Mead Johnson Nutrition

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Slow Down… or Else By David Galland, Managing Editor, The Casey Report

On a whim following our Denver Summit – and despite truly abysmal weather – Casey Research CEO Olivier Garret and I cabbed it down to a local public golf course for a quick nine holes. Afterwards we were returning to the hotel through a neighborhood best described as poor, but not disreputable. While our cab made its way down a side street, a radar gun-wielding policeman leaped out of the bushes down the block, pulled the trigger, and waved our immigrant cab driver to the curb. The offense, we soon learned, was going five miles an hour over the speed limit in a school zone… well after school was out and with no other children in sight.

Waiting for

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Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak?

% change butter35 coffee21.8 cocoa20.2 copper89.1 corn-8.3 cotton38.6 gold32.1 hogs2.7 oats13.4 oil63.2 lead81.9 palladium75.9 platinum61.7 silver59.1 steel-0.9 sugar73.6 tin22.5 wheat-26.6 zinc55.4 average37.4 euro12

The table at the right summarizes the percent change between January 6 and November 11 in the cash prices of 19 commodities reported in the Wall Street Journal (downloaded via Webstract). The average commodity in this list has appreciated 37% since the start of the year.

A recent paper by Ke Tang and Wei Xiong documents an increasing tendency for commodity prices to move together over the last few years. A decade ago, what happened to oil prices was largely unrelated to movements in most other commodity prices. The graphs below show how the correlations between oil prices and

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'The primitive structure of our economy', was one of President Medvedev's keynote complaints in his second annual address, which emphasized the need for technological innovation. The speech was 'disappointing from an investment point of view [...] it was very light on any specific point of action, just a reiteration of what we have already been hearing', comments one strategist. Excessive state involvement in the economy was another point raised: three state corporations, Russian Technologies, Rusnano and Vneshekonombank will lose their status as such as early as next year. The President did suggest that it should be the job of the Foreign Ministry to systematically encourage foreign investments, by reducing bureaucratic hurdles. The economic decline has apparently eased during the last quarter after record lows. Rusal may offer stakes in mines to Chinese companies to contribute to the success ...