I’m always interested in how Government ties in with the markets. It’s been a bit of a hobby of mine, along with WWII battles, over the past 2-3 years and there’s no bigger tie then Goldman and the Government then recently…and BOY is it bigger then we know! In my recent late night surfing I came across Greg Roy. Greg recently released a special report with the same title of this blog post, Goldman Sachs’ Next Slaughter of the Stock Market Lambs, and being the digger I am, I read the full report and cold called him. I asked if I could repost a part of the report for my Trader’s Blog members. After some convincing he said ok.

This guy knows what he is talking about… Here is an exclusive excerpt from his newly released report Goldman Sachs’ Next Slaughter of the Stock Market Lambs.

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Goldman Sachs

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(click on pictures for better viewing)

It is indeed an old adage that while goods things are to be preferred over bad things it is possible to get too much of the former. Looking at recent comments from the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia it is not difficult to imagine how these, albeit old and worn, pearls of wisdom may well have inspired Mr. Stevens in his effort to tiptoe the thigthrope between signalling the intention to raise rates into an expected economic recovery on the one side and trying to prevent the Aussie shoot of on helium into the sun with wings of wax on the other.

(quote Bloomberg)

Australia’s central bank Governor Glenn Stevens signaled a surge in the nation’s currency to near parity with the U.S. dollar has given him scope to slow the pace of future

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Friday October 30, 2009

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Too big to fail, is still heavy in the derivative market, and primed for a gigantic collapse.

Congress needs a chimney sweep to clean the soot from the smoke they’ve been blowing. Our do nothing congress; well we can’t really say do nothing, they did bail out the banks, and they have raised more money for themselves this session from Insurance, health care and bank lobbyists than in any other one year period, and the year isn’t even over. Now they are spreading the word, the gospel of Obama, it’s time to

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Dubai’s government returned to the open bond market upon a growing sense that the notoriously ‘profligate’ emirate–as at least one analyst has previously criticized it in comparison to its more steady, oil-fueled sibling Abu Dhabi–can be trusted not to default on its $80bn or so of outstanding debt. On the heels of last week’s proposed Euro Medium-Term Note (EMTN) program which seeks to raise 6.5bn, divided into four billion dollars in EMTN and 2.5-bn in Islamic bond issue, or sukuk, the government on Wednesday successfully placed nearly $2 billion in new five-year Islamic bonds–divided into both a dollar and dirham tranche–the biggest sukuk sale from the Gulf region this year. Pricing was set at 375 basis points plus/minus 10 points over mid-swaps for the dollar tranche, and with the same spread over three-
month Emirates Interbank Offered Rate, or EIBOR, used for the
 dirham

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Robert Shiller, economics professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Shiller home-price index, talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the US housing market. The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 1% from the prior month, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.2% increase in July, the group said. From a year earlier, the gauge fell 11.3%, less than forecast. (The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices can be accessed here.)

Click here or on the image below to view the interview. (There is no longer embedding available for the Bloomberg videos on YouTube.)

Source: Bloomberg (via YouTube), October 27, 2009.

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In his latest blog, Matt sings the praises of ETNs and argues that the risk of losing money is “vanishingly small”.

Matt’s argument is that “most ETNs offer daily redemptions at net asset value, meaning that (even ignoring the quoted market) an investor of size (50,000 shares in the case of iPath ETNs) can sell out of the product within 48 hours and get the full net asset value of the note from the issuer.”

In other words, even if you become concerned about the credit risk of the issuer and there is insufficient liquidity in the secondary market for you to trade, you can get out of a position by selling it back to the ETN issuer.

I agree with Matt that the tax treatment of ETNs gives them a huge advantage for US investors (ETNs are taxed at long-term capital gains tax rates and only on a deferred basis

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Whoever would have thought that some people once called economics the most dismal of sciences? Certainly, as the current crisis goes on and on, those of us who consider ourselves to be economists scarcely are able to find the time to squeeze in a dull moment, even here and there. But even at a broader level, interest in that most dismal of dismal topics - the theory and practice of central banking - seems now to fire up levels of enthusiasm here in Spain that make even the appetising prospect of a forthcoming Real Madrid-Barça football match pale in intensity. Even if it is the case, I have to admit, that the everyday Johnny (or Jill) come lately sitting in the bar still - truth be told - prefers the sports columns of the daily newspapers, or the lacivious details of the latest romantic adventure of one of the rich ...

Whoever would have thought that some people once called economics the most dismal of sciences? Certainly, as the current crisis goes on and on, those of us who consider ourselves to be economists scarcely are able to find the time to squeeze in a dull moment, even here and there. But even at a broader level, interest in that most dismal of dismal topics - the theory and practice of central banking - seems now to fire up levels of enthusiasm here in Spain that make even the appetising prospect of a forthcoming Real Madrid-Barça football match pale in intensity. Even if it is the case, I have to admit, that the everyday Johnny (or Jill) come lately sitting in the bar still - truth be told - prefers the sports columns of the daily newspapers, or the lacivious details of the latest romantic adventure of one of the rich ...

McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP) recently reported third quarter 2009 results. Quarterly earnings of $1.12 per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06, but fell 8.9% from the $1.23 delivered in the prior-year quarter. On a reported basis, including one-time items, earnings fell 13% to $1.07 per share. The decline in the top line, partially offset by stringent cost controls, resulted in the fall to the bottom line. Due to effective cost management, the company now expects to achieve the high end of earnings guidance range of $2.20 to $2.25 per share for fiscal 2009. Revenue for the quarter slipped 8.4% to $1,875.9 million due to a fall in revenue in its three segments -- Education, Financial Services and Information & Media. Given the turbulent economy and softness in the elementary-high school market and advertising, management now expects revenue to decline by 7% in 2009 -- worse ...

... at least not yet that is. Let us see how the rest in Europe will fair.

(From Bloomberg)

U.K. gross domestic product unexpectedly dropped in the third quarter as enduring slumps in services, manufacturing and construction kept the economy mired in its longest recession on record.

Gross domestic product dropped 0.4 percent from the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.2 percent increase, according to the median of 33 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The economy has now contracted in six quarters, the most since records began in 1955.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said this week he will focus on spurring economic growth as he struggles to cement a recovery in time for a general election due by June. Today’s data may add to pressure on Bank of England officials to expand bond purchases at their Nov. 5 decision after

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