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How Long Before Jobs Recover? – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (June 4th, 2009) Writes:
Tomorrow morning the employment report for May will come out, and there is no doubt that it will show the economy continued to shed jobs. The consensus expectation is for a loss of 520,000 jobs -- on top of the 539,000 lost in April and the almost 6 million lost since the downturn started. While I am not one of those that thinks that there is no such thing as a Government job, I do think that changes in private employment are a better measure of the health of the economy.The last two recessions behaved significantly differently from previous downturns with respect to private employment. In earlier downturns, the economy stopped losing jobs almost as soon as the economy started to recover, and the number of months of falling employment was very close to the length of the recession.In some of those downturns, the economy ...

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