Diapason Commodities ManagementDiapason’s Commodity Hedge Fund WiltsThe following piece on Diapason Commodities Management is being published as part of our Hedge Fund Tracker Tool, our daily effort to track hedge funds in the industry.Diapason Commodities Management, the $7 billion Lausanne, Switzerland-based commodity-focused alternatives shop is currently feeling the pinch of the downtrodden market. The firm’s 10-month old Long/Short Agriculture Commodity Fund dropped another 7.42% last month, bringing its year-to-date losses to 3.48%. According to the firm’s investor letter, the agriculture sector was under assault in September by hordes of sellers forced to liquidate their positions on the back of the failures of well-known institutions, but also because of a more favorable outlook for the 2008 crops.“Bigger than anticipated harvests in Europe and the Black Sea region boosted the amount ...

by Edward Hugh: BarcelonaThe medium-term outlook is sensitive to external developments and policy responses. A benign external environment, featuring even higher steel prices and FDI, could produce growth in excess of 7 percent, but inflation could prove hard to control under a peg. Under an adverse external outlook, by contrast, the peg could lead to external sustainability problems.IMF 2006 Article IV Consultation Staff Report (February 2007)Ukraine's economy is in trouble, there is no doubt about it. The cost of protecting debt against a sovereign default by Ukraine's government soared to a record on Friday, following the arrival of a twin storm of both political and financial uncertaintly. The Ukraine president Viktor Yushchenko announced earlier in the week (only to be challenged on Saturday by his perpetual rival Julia Tymoshenko) that he was going to call what would be the country's third parliamentary elections ...

Key Points: Urea prices fell by more than $70 in late September A strike is helping to support potash prices Some analysts are raising 2009 earnings forecasts Highlighted stocks include AGU, CF, MOS, POT and TRA

Fears that fertilizer companies could be losing pricing power sent their shares tumbling late last week.

The primary cause was a sharp drop in urea prices. A report published last Thursday on Farm Futures revealed a $70 decline in Black Sea prices over the previous 2 weeks. (Ammonia prices were weaker as well.)

Urea is a key ingredient used in fertilizer. Traders are concerned that the recent drop is an early signal of slipping demand for fertilizer. Any weakness would call into question fourth-quarter and 2009 profit forecasts for Agrium (AGU), CF Industries (CF), Mosaic (MOS), Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) and Terra Industries (TRA).

It is possible that some farmers are choosing

...

TODAY: Putin pledges South American support, Russia offers $1 billion loan to Venezuela; former Soviet states urge UN and Nato vigilance, tensions continue on both sides; Ukraine could charge Russia for use of Black Sea port; Communists displeased over Solzhenitsyn tribute. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin demonstrated his willingness to prioritize relations with Latin America as it was revealed that Venezuela would receive a $1 billion Russian loan to fund arms purchases. President Dmitry Medvedev has hinted that the presidential role carries too much power. Putin apparently thinks that the World Trade Organization has lost the desire to accept Russia as a member. In a move likely to further aggravate Nato, Putin is calling for an open border between Russia and South Ossetia. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder has warned Nato that ...

[Editor's note: Andrei Novikov is a Russian journalist, who at one point was subjected to involuntary psychiatric confinement after publishing articles critical of local government. His case first rose to international attention on this blog and was supported by Reporters without Borders. From time to time, he contributes opinion essays to us. Below he explores some of the tricky issues of the ceasefire agreement between Russia and Georgia.] A GAME OF BILLIARDS IN THE BLACK SEA? The Medvedev- Sarkozy plan may collapse… By Andrei Novikov, Independent Journalist The war in Georgia is turning more and more into a war around Georgia, a gradual internationalization of the conflict is taking place. America is getting good and ready very slowly, and will be getting good and ready for another year yet. The real outcome of Russia’s ...

Tony Halpin's new article in the Times of London probably carries one of the paper's less tactful headlines today: "Russia engages in 'gangland' diplomacy as it sends warship to the Caribbean." Halpin reports: Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin made clear that Russia would challenge the US for influence in Latin America after visits last week to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba. He said: “It would be wrong to talk about one nation having exclusive rights to this zone.” Moscow was infuriated when Washington sent US warships into the Black Sea to deliver aid to Georgia after the war. Analysts said that the Kremlin was engaging in gunboat diplomacy over the encroachment of Nato into Russia’s former Soviet satellites of Georgia and Ukraine. However of far more significance in my opinion is Venezuela's recent military and energy dealings with China, which is ...

Let the tit-for-tat military deployments begin, as Moscow complains about the presence of NATO ships in the Black Sea, they unveil plans for joint naval exercises with Venezuela in the Caribbean. As we've reported before on this blog, both Chavez and Putin share a particularly ridiculous paranoia that they are on the brink of invasion by the United States, and must vigorously prepare defenses and militarize their borders. Escalation, it seems, isn't just a means but also an end. From the LA Times: During his visit to Russia, Chavez said that the two nations had formed a strategic partnership and that he was buying a Russian missile defense system to thwart a potential U.S. air attack. In recent months, Chavez advisors have said Venezuela is considering buying as many as five diesel-powered Russian submarines. The deal would ...

The Wall Street Journal is carrying a story on VP Dick Cheney's trip to the Black Sea to express support for Georgia and push for alternative pipeline projects such as Nabucco. "The Russians have demonstrated they can close that corridor through Georgia any time they want," said John Bolton, President Bush's former U.N. ambassador. U.S. officials reject that. "The Georgian energy corridor is safe," Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew J. Bryza, one of Nabucco's major supporters, told an audience in Brussels Monday. He stressed that Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and the South Caucasus Gas Pipeline, which transports Azeri gas to Turkey, were unaffected by the fighting. Mr. Bryza also said European energy companies behind Nabucco and the Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline have told him they are determined to proceed with the two projects. "They haven't slowed down at all," he said. "They are anxious to line up gas supply contracts with ...

No one knows where oil is heading. Only four months ago (May ’08), oil cleared $120 a barrel on its way to $145. Within a month, analysts were calling for $150, even $200 oil. Countless graphs and charts surfaced showing how demand was outpacing supplies. Pundit after pundit commented that emerging markets like China and India were fueling an unstoppable mega-boom for black gold. Then Russia invaded Georgia, and oil took a nose dive falling more than 20 consecutive days from $145 down to $115 a barrel. Hurricane Gustav gave it a brief shot in the arm, but the damage was less than expected and oil rolled over the next day. Now analysts are predicting oil will fall to $100 or even $85 a barrel. Again the charts and graphs are surfacing, this time showing that both international and domestic demand for oil is ...

“Moscow's current economic dilemma is that the old sources of growth will soon be exhausted.” Law enforcement officers have raided the Moscow headquarters of mobile phone retailer Yevroset. Mechel, Russia’s biggest coking coal producer, is seeking approval to acquire indirect control of German metals trader HBL Holding. BP’s Baku-Supsa pipeline, which transports crude from Azerbaijan to Georgia's Black Sea coast, is "undamaged", but closed for security reasons.