Our Chairman, Who Art At Goldman, Blankfein Be Thy Name. The Rally’s Come. God’s Work Be Done On Earth As There’s No Fear Of Correction. Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains, And Bankrupt Our Competitors As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons. And Bring Us Not Under Indictment. For Thine Is The Treasury, The House And The Senate Forever and Ever. Goldman.

Hat tip: Bill King (The King Report), November 12, 2009.

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The yield of ten-year US Treasury Notes has surged by 34 basis points since the middle of October as market participants started adopting a more upbeat outlook on the economy and shied away from safe-haven assets.

Unsurprisingly, the following comes from the minutes of the meeting of November 4 of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association: “Several members noted the graph discussing net fixed income supply in 2009 and 2010, and how issuance will ramp up dramatically in 2010. Federal Reserve purchases have taken an enormous amount of supply out of the market this past year across fixed income markets, but next year, financial markets should expect even greater issuance with no support. Such an outcome could pressure rates.” With quantitative easing set to expire during Q1, it is difficult not to see long-term rates rising, unless the economy falls

“I take the action of the stock and bond markets this week (and particularly today) very seriously. Extreme caution is advised. The primary trend of the market is bearish, and the secondary trend may now be turning down,” said Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) on Friday.

After equities’ seven month climb, stock markets certainly look vulnerable for a decline. Two downside reversal days - on Wednesday and Friday - would seem to indicate that stocks could commence a pullback to work off the overbought condition, allowing fundamentals to reassert themselves.

Bill King (The King Report) reported Art Cashin as saying that since June 2007 the Daily Sentiment Index (as published by Trade-Futures.com), which polls futures traders, has reported more than 90% bulls on the S&P only once. “When would you guess that time to be? July 2007? October 2007? Wrong. It was last

The following analogy comes from Ralph Wanger, founder of the Acorn Fund (via Bill King):

“Zebras have the same problem as institutional portfolio managers.

“Firstly, both seek profits. For portfolio managers above-average performance; for zebras, fresh grass.

“Secondly, both dislike risk. Portfolio managers can get fired; zebras can get eaten by lions.

“Thirdly, both move in herds. They look alike, think alike and stick close together. If you are a zebra, and live in a herd, the key decision you have to make is where to stand in relation to the rest of the herd. When you think that conditions are safe, the outside of the herd is the best, for there the grass is fresh, while the middle sees only grass that is half-eaten or trampled down. The aggressive zebras, on the outside of the herd, eat much better. On the other hand - or other

This post is a guest contribution by Bill King*, well-respected and straight-talking author of The King Report.

Most of the Street heralded the 1% decline in Q2 GDP because it was 0.5% better than consensus - even though the US government admitted in the release that its GDP estimates over the past several years were consistently wrong! So why should the latest report be any more accurate?!?!

We feel compelled to address the scheme of past-month lower revisions producing better-than-expected m/m or q/q results, even though the aggregate metric is worse than expected. We have incessantly noted and commented on this scam but most of the trading and investing universe omits it.

We will again utilize basic math to illustrate the scam. If Q4 ‘08 GDP was 100 units, and Q1 ‘09 was reported at -5.5% and Q2 ‘09 GDP was expected to be -1.5%, the

The Dow Jones Industrial Index on Thursday breached 9,000 for the first time since January and the Nasdaq Composite Index notched up a 12th consecutive advancing day (the first time sine 1992) as favorable reactions to earnings and economics reports propelled stocks and other risky assets higher. Meanwhile, the usual debate on the outlook for the economy and shenanigans of financial institutions again dominated the video channels over the past few days.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s bi-annual testimony on Capitol Hill (and an expected grilling by Alan Grayson) and other highlights of the week’s trials and tribulations were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff were a star-studded cast including the likes of Martin Feldstein, Stephen Roach, Bill King, Nouriel Roubini, Sheila Bair, Mario Gabelli and George Friedman.

The compilation starts off with an interview with Harvard’s Martin Feldstein about his “double-dip” economic

Gold added about five bucks to its price from the time that trading began in the Far East Thursday…and the London a.m. gold fix. Then from there, it gave back seven dollars going into the p.m. gold fix…and after that, it gained over eight dollars until half past lunchtime in New York. Then a really serious seller showed up taking nine bucks off the price between then and the close of electronic trading in New York. It was pretty choppy trading all around…and it was obvious that every rally ran into serious resistance. The same could be said for silver. But according to the usual New York gold commentator [who is not Dennis Gartman, by the way], volume in gold was heavy…estimated at 140,658 contracts…”which involved a 21.6% surge in the last half-hour. The presence of such determined buyers and sellers during the floor session is unusual.”

Wednesday’s open interest in

Gold declined gently throughout Far East and early European trading on Tuesday…and by shortly after lunchtime in London…had given up around four bucks. From there, a smallish rally developed that made an attempt to continue rallying on the Comex, but got cut off at the knees [at its high of the day] shortly after 9:10 a.m. Eastern time. This decline lasted until 1:15 p.m. in New York…and by the time electronic trading ended at 5:15 p.m. yesterday afternoon…gold was back to virtually unchanged from Monday’s close. Silver didn’t do much. It lost a dime in choppy trading.

I mentioned yesterday that the open interest decline on Friday [in that short-covering rally] would have been somewhat offset by the big rally that we had on Monday. Well, I was only partially right. Open interest for Monday’s big day showed a staggering increase…up 12,999 contracts to 393,536…on big volume of 139,361 contracts. Friday’s

This post is a guest contribution by Bill King*, well-respected and straight-talking author of The King Report.

For the past several years Street operators have assumed that the computer jockeys who were being employed by proprietary trading departments on The Street were developing algorithms that would find other algorithms that represented buyside orders so prop desks could trade against those orders.

Another trading prop that has been occurring for years is certain firms feed their electronic trading systems into prop desks so traders can see in real time money flows into and out of stocks and groups.

However recent revelations are forcing the Street to consider the possibility of automated front-running on an unfathomable scale. The two “front-running” issues are: 1) “queuing” [of orders] - finding orders loaded into a system, particularly limit orders, and trading against them; and 2) “latency” - discovering and then front-running

“Words from the Wise” this week comes to you in a shortened format as I do not have access to my normal research resources while on the road in Europe (also see my post “Gone A.W.O.L. - to Slovenia and Switzerland“). Although very little commentary is provided, a full dose of excerpts from interesting news items and quotes from market commentators is included.

While investors’ hopes of an economic recovery might have got ahead of reality, the cartoonists continually reminded us of worrisome issues …

Source: Signe Wilkinson, Washington Post,  June 18, 2009.

The past week’s performance of the major asset classes is summarized by the chart below - a mixed bag so to speak.

Source: StockCharts.com

A summary of