The dollar is likely to continue depreciating and the “new normal” will see consumers shedding debt in an attempt to balance their books, Bill Gross, the influential manager who runs top bond fund Pimco, told CNBC Wednesday.

“I think the dollar is an over-owned currency. The Chinese, the Asians have basically owned too many dollars for too long,” Gross told “Squawk Box”.

The government has increased borrowing and this will make the dollar “more and more owned and less and less desirable” but this is necessary for balancing the world economy, as it may result in higher production in the US and lower production in China.

Source: CNBC, October 28, 2009.

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Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “Midnight Candles”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading.

He concludes the newsletter as follows:

“Asset appreciation in US and other G-7 economies has been artificially elevated for years. In order to prevent prices sinking even lower than recent downtrends averaging 30% for stocks, homes, commercial real estate, and certain high yield bonds, central banks must keep policy rates historically low for an extended period of time. If policy rates are artificially low then bond investors should recognize that artificial buyers of notes and bonds (quantitative easing programs and Chinese currency fixing) have compressed almost all interest rates.

“But while this may support asset prices - including Treasury paper across the front end and belly of the curve, at the same time

While a lot has been made of the RBA raising Australia’s short term rates over the last week the fact is that most of the world is not doing quite as well.  Whereas Australia actually has some inflation the United States, Japan, and Europe are still not growing and rates are likely to stay around their current levels for at least a few more quarters.

Australia on the other hand was able to avoid a large part of the current global recession by supplying Asia, namely China, with commodities.  As you can see  in the chart below the short term rates have climbed but in spite of this the long term rates are still basically unchanged. (click on chart to enlarge)

Australia Interest Rates

Looking at the G-10 as a group we can see that

Bill Gross, co-founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, is to my mind one of the shrewdest money men around. His monthly newsletter, this month entitled “On the “Course” to a New Normal”, therefore always makes for thought-provoking reading.

He concludes the newsletter as follows:

“The investment implications of this New Normal evolution cannot easily be modeled econometrically, quantitatively, or statistically. The applicable word in New Normal is, of course, “new.” The successful investor during this transition will be one with common sense and importantly the powers of intuition, observation, and the willingness to accept uncertain outcomes. As of now, Pimco observes that the highest probabilities favor the following strategic conclusions:

1. Global policy rates will remain low for extended periods of time.

2. The extent and duration of quantitative easing, term financing and fiscal stimulation efforts are keys to future investment returns across a multitude of

Currencies trade in a tight range…  G-20 to shun an exit from stimulus?  Gold and Silver and Oil… A new trend? Loonies follow the commodities higher… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Happy Friday to one and all! Well… Once again, my day didn’t turn out exactly as planned, but as they say… A bad day at the ballpark is better than a good day and then you plug in the place… It could be work… It could be cutting the grass… Etc..

OK… I heard a great song on the radio this morning on my way to work… And I said to myself… Chuck, now that’s a great song to start a day with, that everyone should hear each day! It’s a song from the 60’s (of course!), by the Rascals, called… It’s a Beautiful Morning… Here’s the first verse, and if you know the song, I’m sure you’ll want to sing

Chinese stocks rise 5%! Risk Assets follow! OECD forecasts faster global rowth…Gold & Silver kicking sand again! And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Good day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to you! Let’s hope it remains a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday later today, as I head downtown to watch my beloved Cardinals play a day game! For those of you who are baseball fans, you know what I mean when I carry on about how baseball should only be played during the day!

OK… Before I get to the currencies, economies and the dolts in the world, I wanted to briefly talk

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Bill Gross (Pimco - Investment Outlook): Investment potions, August 2009. A 3% nominal GDP “new normal” means lower profit growth, permanently higher unemployment, capped consumer spending growth rates and an increasing involvement of the government sector, which substantially changes the character of the American capitalistic model. There is no investment potion for this new environment other than steady income-producing bond and equity investments in companies with strong balance sheets and high dividend yields, as well as selectively chosen emerging market commitments where nominal GDP growth prospects are tilted upward as opposed to gravitating to new lower norms.

• Economist.com: After the fall, July 27, 2009. The collapse in world trade has stopped, but there is no sign of a

Countless studies demonstrate that dividend-paying stocks outperform non-payers by a wide margin. From 1972 to 2006 dividend-paying stocks returned an average of 10% annually versus 4% for non-dividend payers, according to Ned Davis Research. Going back to 1926, other studies confirm almost half of the S&P 500’s return was due to the dividends paid by the companies in the index.

So, I’ll take Bill Gross’ recommendation one step further. Forget now. Dividend-paying stocks ALWAYS deserve a place in your portfolio.

Yet, in this market, it’s increasingly difficult to find reliable dividend stocks.

“This is going to be the worst [dividend-cutting year] in 50 years,” Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at Standard & Poor’s, predicted in January. So far he’s right with industry titans like General Electric and Dow Chemical announcing cuts.

Keep in mind, Dow Chemical maintained or increased its dividend every year since 1912. That means conditions this year are worse for the company

In this first edition of a new WealthTrack series on great investors, Consuelo Mack sat down with “Bond King” Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of bond giant Pimco, and discussed how he was reconciling his big-picture, secular views of lower investment returns with his higher-return-oriented investment goals. Amongst others, he told her why he was backing away from his investment strategy of making the government his investment partner - a key theme of Pimco’s over the past year - and what he was focusing on instead. Gross also shared what he is doing with his own money.

Gross’ flagship Total Return Fund was up 4% plus last year, nine full percentage points better than its peers. It is up more than 6% for the year to date, again outstripping the competition. Not too shabby!

Do not miss any of this great interview.

The holiday-shortened week saw investors pondering the depth of the economic rabbit-hole. As investors vacillated, most financial markets were characterized by a roller-coaster ride. Friday’s worse-than-expected jobs data left no doubt that the economy was in recession.

The highlights of the week’s discussions were captured on video and are included in this video-o-rama compilation. Strutting their stuff was a star-studded cast including the likes of George Soros, Hugh Hendry, Dan Greenhaus, Paul Krugman, Bill Gross, Nassim Taleb, Jeff Immelt, Stephen Roach, Bob Prechter and Marc Faber.

As an aside, the weather in Europe - where I am spending two weeks with my family in Slovenia and Switzerland - has been characterized of late by endless thunderstorms. Strikingly, the economic mood is no less despondent than that of the holiday-makers trying to escape the ominous dark clouds. But wait, is that a forecast for better days ahead?

Elsewhere, the jail