What happens in markets in the first 10 months of the year can shed light on what might happen in November and December. The statistic-minded folks at Bespoke Investment Group crunched some numbers going back more than a century and came up with this interesting tidbit ndash; when the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 10 percent or more through October, the next two months have yielded positive Dow returns 87 percent of the time. 2009 marks the 47th time since 1901 that the Dow has topped 10 percent through October. When that occurs, Bespoke says, there has been an average Dow gain of 4.2 percent and a median gain of 3.6 percent through the end of the year. Herersquo;s another factoid ndash; regardless of performance through October, the Dow has averaged a 65-basis-point gain in November over the past century. The results are better over the past 50 years and 20 years ...

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Yesterday’s Sept. 1 Downer For Stocks Darkens the Outlook in an Already Bleak Month For Investors

When it comes to U.S. stocks, the first trading day of September typically sets the tone for the rest of the month.

And with share prices having hit a sour note yesterday (Tuesday), investors probably shouldn’t anticipate a positive showing for the rest of September.

U.S. stocks nose-dived yesterday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging 185.68 points, or 2%, to close at 9,310.60 – the biggest hit that blue-chip index has taken in two weeks. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 22.58 …

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When the “Great Crash” came in 1929, it came in October. So, too, did the infamous “Crash of ‘87.” And last year, during a tortuous October that led to even lower lows in the months to come, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index …

Stock markets recorded another strong week as further signs of economic stabilization emerged. The S&P 500 Index worked its way back to above the 1,000 level on Friday, and more upside lies ahead said Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs’ market strategist, as she expected the Index to reach the 1,100 mark by year end.

This week’s batch of video clips not only covers the outlook for stock markets, but also discussions about the economy’s transition from recession to recovery and other topical issues. Appearing on camera are Jeffry Sachs, Robert Shiller, Larry Summers, Lakshman Achuthan, Joseph Stiglitz, David Rosenberg and David Hickey.

The selection starts off with two academics - Jeffrey Sachs and Robert Shiller - and concludes with a discussion about the “man-cession” - older white male workers being among the hardest hit by job losses.

Fora.tv: Jeffrey Sachs - global effects of crisis “Jeffrey Sachs, Director

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Some of China’s stockpiling may well have been due to speculative excess, rather than any rational plan on the ground. That realization played a role in the market carnage seen this week.

As Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has been known to say, “We wrote it. Did you read it?”

My slim hope is that the Chinese really and truly know what they are doing, because, in fueling investor optimism with such flair, they are playing a high stakes game. My worry is that they drop the ball, somehow, and the result shows up as a violent wake-up call for “high beta” assets… emerging market equities, energy, commodities and the like.

What happens next is far from clear. The huge [commodity] stockpiles could continue to grow at a breathtaking pace – after all, Beijing has plenty of greenbacks to work

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Earnings Reports: 3 Stand-Out Stocks & The Post Earnings Announcement Drift

by Matthew Weinschenk, Senior Analyst, The White Cap Report

Editor’s Note: In a recent article, Matt Weinschenk showed White Cap subscribers an easy way to sort through the earnings reports that have been coming out. We’re republishing it here because following earnings is a key concept in our Investment U course and Matt gives us his insight on taking advantage of them…

Investors eyed this batch of quarterly earnings with more anticipation and scrutiny than any in recent memory. And who can blame them, really?

With a recession in full swing, companies lining up for government bailouts and economists taking to the streets of New York with “The End is Near” sandwich boards, nobody knew what to expect.

Earnings reports, however, tell the real, unabridged story of what’s happening with America’s businesses…

So now that most of the numbers are

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Hat tip to AbnormalReturns.com for highlighting a post by the Bespoke Investment Group about rising oil prices yet oil stocks lagging behind, the question is when will oil stocks catch-up to oil prices? If there’s one take away, its the ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (ETF) (NYSE:DIG).

First up, the Bespoke Investment Group on Oil Continues to Outperform Oil Stocks:  Oil continues to rally on a daily basis and it is now up to $65/barrel after getting down to the $30s just a few months ago.  At the same time, oil stocks have lagged the commodity pretty significantly.   

Below is a historical chart of the ratio between oil stocks and oil.  When the line is rising, oil stocks are outperforming oil, and when the line is falling, oil is outperforming oil stocks.  When oil tanked at the end of 2008, the

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Notes from the Investment Underground Friday, April 17, 2009 Palermo Viejo, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Here comes subprime II… 3 toxic time bombs to come… The Richebächer legacy lives on… “Scamonomics” explored… Goldman bites the hand that feeds it… TARP loses 75% of taxpayers’ money… How to get $4,201 in your pocket by June 4… Banks’ top 4 accounting gimmicks… Short squeeze pushes market higher… John O’Neill on government’s deceit… James Dale Davidson: How to grab 19% yields on Treasurys (if you’ve got government connections)…  And more!

*** Rob Parenteau, the editor of the reincarnated Richebächer Letter, warns that we are in for the second wave of these toxic mortgages ahead. The first time subprime mortgages reset at a higher rate was in 2008 and the subsequent flurry of defaults sent banks into a tailspin.

Well, get ready, warns Rob. We still have “Option ARM” and “Alt-A” loan resets

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Notes from the Investment Underground

April 14, 2009

Palermo Viejo, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Richard Russell: Why this is a bear market correction… That latest outbreak of investor credulity… 25 biggest earnings-per-share movers and shakers heading into earnings season… Banks to be allowed to screw up indefinitely… The great “too big to fail” fraud… Bailouts costing $42,105 for each U.S. citizen… Bush-Obama tag team piles on debt at the rate of $60,000 a second… Bob Higgs on C-SPAN… China wises up… And more!

*** This Richard Russell quote is a must-read for investors thinking about buying back into stocks. Russell, now in his 50th year of publishing the excellent Dow Theory Letter, believes we are now witnessing a bear market correction.

The essence of Dow Theory has to do with VALUES. At the March low the price/earnings ratio for the Dow was 25.79 and the dividend ...

Corporate Profits Might Be Falling, But Don’t Let Yours…

The Oxford Portfolio Update – January 22, 2009 (Broadcast #842)
by Louis Basenese, Oxford Club Senior Analyst

Forget the four-day rally for the S&P 500. Or the fact that it traded above its 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time in weeks. Unless you’re a technician, these feats hold little value.

What matters instead, is what’s going on at the company level. And two headwinds exist that can’t be overlooked.

First, companies keep cutting dividends. At the fastest pace in 50 years, no less, according to Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst at S&P. Already this year, seven companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 index have decreased their dividends, wiping out roughly $12 billion in payments investors were banking on.

Second, only 45% of U.S. companies have beat earnings estimates. That’s even more pathetic when you consider how dramatically analysts have

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