First, a little background. The traditional tool of monetary policy is an open market purchase, in which the Fed purchased U.S. Treasury securities that had previously been held by someone in the private sector. The Fed would pay for those securities by crediting deposits in an account that the selling bank had with the Federal Reserve. These reserve deposits of banks represent claims that the bank could use, if it wished, to withdraw green currency from the Federal Reserve. The volume of reserve deposits historically was extremely important in determining the interest rate at which banks would lend the deposits to one another overnight. The traditional understanding of monetary policy was that the Fed would use open market purchases to achieve its desired objectives for the overnight interest rate and the money supply.

If the Fed wished to implement a purely temporary increase in the volume of reserve deposits, historically the tool of choice was a repurchase agreement, in which the Fed would buy a particular security with a promise to return it at a specified future date. The purchase was again implemented by creation of reserve deposits, and when the security was returned, those deposits came back into the Fed.

The Fed began to see a new potential use for these repos after the initial banking difficulties in August 2007. Although repos were traditionally used as a device for temporarily injecting reserves, their structure amounts to a collateralized loan from the Fed to the counterparty. The Fed's objective subsequent to August 2007 was to increase the volume of its lending and support the market for certain securities that it could accept as collateral for repos. Thus the Fed utilized an expansion of repurchase agreements as one of the initial tools for responding to the crisis, simply rolling them over to create a de facto expanded lending facility.

The graph below tracks the various assets held by the Federal Reserve since the beginning of 2007. The height of the graph represents the total asset holdings at the end of each week, with the colors indicating the contribution of each category. Repos are represented by the turquoise band. This traditionally had been small and highly variable, but grew significantly in the early phases of the financial crisis. Later the Fed came to use direct loans through its Term Auction Facility in preference to repos. Since January, the Fed has been directly buying up mortgage backed securities and agency debt in the way it used to purchase Treasury securities.

Figure 1. Factors supplying reserve funds, in billions of dollars, seasonally unadjusted, from Jan 1, 2007 to September 23, 2009. Wednesday values, from Federal Reserve H41 release. Agency: federal agency debt securities held outright; swaps: central bank liquidity swaps; Maiden 1: net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC; MMIFL: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Money Market Investor Funding Facility; MBS: mortgage-backed securities held outright; CPLF: net portfolio holdings of LLCs funded through the Commercial Paper Funding Facility; TALF: loans extended through Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility; AIG: sum of credit extended to American International Group, Inc. plus net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II and III; ABCP: loans extended to Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility; PDCF: loans extended to primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit; discount: sum of primary credit, secondary credit, and seasonal credit; TAC: term auction credit; RP: repurchase agreements; misc: sum of float, gold stock, special drawing rights certificate account, and Treasury currency outstanding; other FR: Other Federal Reserve assets; treasuries: U.S. Treasury securities held outright.

A separate question is what happens to all the reserve deposits created through this process. The Fed has never wanted to see the huge volume of reserves it created end up as currency held by the public, for fear this would be inflationary. It has relied on several devices to keep that from happening. One was use of the Treasury's account with the Fed, another traditional feature of Fed operations that ballooned as it became adapted to new purposes. The Fed asked the Treasury to borrow funds that it simply left in deposit in its account with the Fed. These idle reserves held by the Treasury absorbed some of the vast increase in new reserves created by the Fed.

A more important tool was that the Fed started paying interest on reserves in October 2008, and by November had increased that rate to the target fed funds rate itself. This created a very strong incentive for banks to simply hold reserves idle at the end of each day rather than lend them out on the overnight fed funds market. In effect, by paying interest on reserves, the Fed is borrowing directly from banks and using the proceeds for the various asset expansions detailed above.

The graph below shows the Fed's liabilities at the end of each week. The height of the graph is, by definition, exactly equal to the height of the previous graph at every date. The first graph tracks what assets the Fed acquired with its operations, while the second graph shows where the funds it created ended up. The surge in the Treasury account (in yellow) and excess reserves of member banks (green) explain why the huge expansion in the Fed's balance sheet has not translated so far into a massive increase in the quantity of currency held by the public (blue).

Figure 2. Factors absorbing reserve funds, in billions of dollars, seasonally unadjusted, from Jan 1, 2007 to September 23, 2009. Wednesday values, from Federal Reserve H41 release. Treasury: sum of U.S. Treasury general and supplementary funding accounts; reserves: reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks; misc: sum of Treasury cash holdings, foreign official accounts, and other deposits; other: other liabilities and capital; service: sum of required clearing balance and adjustments to compensate for float; reverse RP: reverse repurchase agreements; Currency: currency in circulation.

The question under discussion at the moment is the extent to which the Fed could continue to rely on these two devices-- Treasury borrowing on its behalf and banks' willingness to simply hold the ballooning reserves-- to contain the monetary consequences of its expansion. The traditional political gamesmanship over the debt ceiling could well induce the Treasury to want to discontinue its facilitation of the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, in which case the Fed must either reduce some of its lending or count on banks to hold even more excess reserves. Some in the Fed are assuming that they could always ensure the latter outcome, if needed, by raising the interest rate the Fed pays on reserves. But clearly the Fed has no desire at the moment to raise interest rates, so it's difficult for me to imagine them taking that step any time soon.

Where else could the Fed get the funds? Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke described his contingency thinking last July:

the Federal Reserve could drain bank reserves and reduce the excess liquidity at other institutions by arranging large-scale reverse repurchase agreements with financial market participants, including banks, government-sponsored enterprises and other institutions. Reverse repurchase agreements involve the sale by the Fed of securities from its portfolio with an agreement to buy the securities back at a slightly higher price at a later date.

Just as the Fed converted the use of repos, which had historically been used on a small scale to temporarily add reserves, into a much larger operation with which it could lend broadly on a long-term basis, it is now contemplating using the reverse repo, which had historically been used on a small scale to temporarily drain reserves, into a much larger operation with which it could borrow broadly on a long-term basis. Thus we saw the following report from Bloomberg last week:

The Federal Reserve has started talks with bond dealers about withdrawing the unprecedented amount of cash injected into the financial system the last two years, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.

Central bank officials are discussing plans to use so-called reverse repurchase agreements to drain some of the $1 trillion they pumped into the economy, said the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private. That's where the Fed sells securities to its 18 primary dealers for a specific period, temporarily decreasing the amount of money available in the banking system.

There's no sense that policy makers intend to withdraw funds anytime soon, said the people. The central bank's challenge is to decrease the cash without stunting the economy's recovery and before it sparks inflation. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a July Wall Street Journal opinion article that reverse repos are one tool to accomplish that goal without raising interest rates.

"One thing the Fed has to figure out is if they can launch pilot programs without spooking the market and creating the perception that they are about to tighten," said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, a Jersey City, New Jersey-based research firm that specializes in government finance. "They are discussing things like accounting issues, and updating the governing documents to the volume of reverse repos the dealer community could absorb."

Is this a feasible interim plan for handling the liability side without increasing either the money supply or interest rates? In a mechanical sense I believe the answer is yes. But the nature of inflationary pressures that we should be watching at the moment would arise from a depreciation of the dollar relative to other currencies and increase in the dollar price of internationally traded commodities. A modest move toward a weaker dollar and slightly higher inflation would be welcome. But the concern in my mind is whether a flight from the dollar could become more precipitous and destabilizing. It may not be the most likely scenario, but it is one for which I hope there has been some contingency planning.

And if the Treasury and the Fed think they could prevent that simply by borrowing even more without raising interest rates, they are mistaken.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the economy continues to contract. Job losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed investment. U.S. exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have also fallen into recession. Although the near-term economic outlook is weak, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, together with fiscal and monetary stimulus, will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth.

In light of increasing economic slack here and abroad, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued. Moreover, the Committee sees some risk that inflation could persist for a time below rates that best foster economic growth and price stability in the longer term.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and anticipates that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year, and to increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion. Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the Committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months. The Federal Reserve has launched the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses and anticipates that the range of eligible collateral for this facility is likely to be expanded to include other financial assets. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of evolving financial and economic developments.

And some more fro Bloomy ...

The Federal Reserve plans to buy $300 billion in Treasury securities and acquire more mortgage and agency debt in an effort to bolster housing and hasten the end of the recession.

“To provide greater support to mortgage lending and housing markets, the Committee decided today to increase the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet further by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage- backed securities,” the Federal Open Market Committee said after a unanimous vote in Washington today. “Moreover, to help improve conditions in private credit markets, the committee decided to purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.”

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is opening a new front in monetary policy after unemployment climbed to 8.1 percent and economists forecast the economy will shrink through the middle of the year. Fed officials also kept the benchmark interest rate at between zero and 0.25 percent and said it will consider expanding the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to include “other financial assets,” the statement said.

“We are not even close to the bottom and therefore the Fed is engaging in a massive quantitative easing,” William Poole, former president of the St. Louis Fed, said in an interview today with Bloomberg News. “We still have a very serious recession in front of us,” said Poole, now a senior economic adviser to Merk Investments LLC in Palo Alto, California, and contributor to Bloomberg News.

So, time to buy some equities and other risky assets on the dip here? Not to mention to sell that buck for all its worth at least for erm a tick or two. Well, with respect to my small chart above Macro Man seems to be surprised of the relative timidness of the move; 

Im amazed
Eur should be 1.40
Crude should be 60
GC should be at new highs
SPX 850

simply, does the mkt know who they are messing w/?

On a more serious note Berner and Greenlaw from Morgan Stanley have some interesting remarks on the Fed and the next step of buying treasuries. Ok, on we go!

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 0 and 0.25% during a closed door meeting on January 27^th and 28^th, with the review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks. Voting for this action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Dennis P. Lockhart; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.  Voting against was Jeffrey M. Lacker, who preferred to expand the monetary base at this time by purchasing U.S. Treasury securities rather than through targeted credit programs.

Recent economic reports suggests that the economy has weakened further.  Industrial production, housing starts, and employment have continued to decline steeply, as consumers and businesses have cut back spending.  The Committee anticipates that a gradual recovery in economic activity will begin later this year, but the downside risks to that outlook are significant.  The Federal Reserve's balance sheet at remain a high level as the Committee's policies support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures.

Upcoming Releases:

Initial Claims (01/29 at 8:30 AM EST)

Durable Orders (01/29 at 8:30 AM EST)

New Home Sales (01/29 at 10:00 AM EST)

GDP-Advanced (01/30 at 8:30 AM EST)

The Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate between 0 and 0.25% during a closed door meeting on December 15 and 16, with the review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks.  The target was previously set at 1% on the October 29th meeting.  The discount rate was cut by 75 basis points to 0.5%.  Voting for these actions were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Christine M. Cumming; Elizabeth A. Duke; Richard W. Fisher; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh.

This is the lowest the target for the funds rate had been set to.  Although the threat of inflation is no longer an issue, as the CPI report this morning shows the index fell by 1.7%.  However, the economic outlook had weakened further on reports of the labor market conditions worsened while consumer spending, business investment, and industrial production have declined.

"The focus of the Committee's policy going forward will be to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that sustain the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level," as stated in the FOMC Policy Statement.

Recent Highlights:
CPI Decreased 1.9% (today)
Core CPI Unchanged (today)
Housing Starts and Building Permits Decreased (today)
Industrial Production Decreased 0.6% (12/15)
Capacity Utilization Decreased to 75.4% (12/15)
Net Foreign Purchases Decreased to $1.5 Billion (12/15)

Upcoming Releases:
Current Account (12/17 at 8:30 AM EST)
Initial Claims (12/18 at 8:30 AM EST

• World stock markets tumbled Thursday, with benchmarks in Tokyo and Seoul losing almost 7 percent each. (AP)
• Five years after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke helped stamp out the risk of deflation, the threat is returning as the financial crisis and a worsening economic slump pull inflation lower. (Bloomberg)
• The RBA said in a monthly bulletin today that it bought A$3.15 billion ($2 billion) of its own currency last month, the biggest net purchase on record, as the local dollar posted a record monthly decline.

• U.S. options trading slowed this month from a record pace after hedge funds collapsed and the biggest market swings since 1929 made equity derivatives too expensive to be used as insurance against stock losses. (Bloomberg)
Key Reports (WSJ):
8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Nov 18 Week: Expected: -11K. Previous: +32K.
10:00a.m. Oct Conference Board Leading Indicators: Expected: -0.6%. Previous: -0.3%
10:00a.m. Nov Philadelphia Fed Business Index: Expected: -38. Previous: -37.5.
10:00a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For Nov 8: Previous: -0.7%.

Quotable
“Early in life I had noticed that no event is ever correctly reported in a newspaper.”

  George Orwell

Best of CC: Below is a reprint of our 9 July 2008 Currency Currents where we examined the break down in the correlation between oil and the dollar—it was telling us something as we suspected.  It’s another example of why we pay close attention to intermarket correlations; it can be a very powerful tool for currency traders. 

FX Trading – $ vs. Crude…Hmmm! (9 July 2008 Issue)
Can we continue to hang our hat on the view that much of the bad news is already in the price of the dollar?  Well, based on the dismal views about the US economy, which we don’t dispute, which we seem to find everywhere we look, the short answer is yes.  But it’s not just that belief.  Something seems to have changed—though even this is a thin reed of reasoning we grant you.

Back in mid-April the US dollar index made its closing low (and its all-time low in mid-March, the day the Fed saved Bear Stearns).  At the time, crude oil was trading at $116 per barrel (heck, downright cheap in retrospect…LOL).  By now of course, everyone had caught on to the crude-$ connection that says the dollar goes lower when oil goes higher.  But, the problem with this new theory is that crude oil has rallied about $29 since mid-April, or a cool 25%!  However, the US $ index has rallied too—up 2%! 

Based on the crude-$ connection, that wasn’t supposed to happen. 

Chronology of key players’ recent trips to the Middle East (read Saudi Arabia):

• Vice President Dick Cheney – Mid-March
• President George Bush – Mid-May
• Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson – Late-May and Early-June

And on June 1, 2008 this from Reuters:

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Sunday leaders of Gulf oil producing states had told him that abandoning their currency pegs to the dollar will not solve their inflation problems.
Paulson, two-thirds of the way through a four-day trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, said leaders in the region have "quite an awareness that the peg does not influence inflation to a significant degree.
"They recognize that inflation is the overriding issue ... Ending the peg is not the solution to the inflation problem."

Hmmm…

Is it possible the Gulf States were treated to a litany of promises that the dollar was nearing a bottom and now is not the time to abandon said dollar pegs?  Again, we have no clue. But, it would be a nice fit with the ongoing lack of correlation between all-time highs in crude and the $ index cautiously trending higher.

Stranger things have happened.  Stay tuned. 

Regards,
Jack&JR

* Global demand rose 18% to 1,133.4 metric tonnes from 963.3 tonnes a year earlier.

* In dollar terms, the jump in demand was even bigger. Dollar demand for gold reached an all time quarterly record of $32 billion in the third quarter, a whopping 45% higher than the previous record … set in the second quarter.

* Identifiable investment, which includes purchases through exchange-traded funds and of bars and coins, climbed 56% year over year to 382.1 tons.

Hank Paulson has just about burned through $300 billion, and it's not clear what the public has got out of it. Perhaps things would be worse without the bailout but they're certainly no better. Wall Street banks have not significantly stepped up their loans to small businesses, college students, car buyers, or distressed homeowners. Much of the auto industry is on the verge of bankruptcy. And the rate of foreclosures is rising.What happened to all the money? About a third has gone into dividends the banks are paying their shareholders. Some of the rest into executive salaries and bonuses. Another portion toward acquisitions designed to raise share values. Another chunk for bailing out giant insurer, AIG. That's not what taxpayers bargained for.

The situation is dire. GM is burning through cash at a pace that could mean bankruptcy, and all three players are struggling with high costs, weak vehicle sales, frozen credit lines and dwindling cash reserves calling into question whether they can survive much longer without government help. The answer, of course, is that…

Wall Street bond traders estimate that the U.S. government will have to borrow a record $1.4 trillion during the current fiscal year – an unprecedented amount of debt that’s nevertheless needed to cover a federal budget deficit that’s expected to approach $1 trillion for the fiscal year, CNNMoney.com reported.

(The government’s fiscal year differs from the calendar year, and actually began Oct. 1. The $700 billion bailout plan was approved by the…

This from Money Morning:

Although the ongoing financial crisis has introduced a new word – bailout – into the lexicon of most investors, a quick tour of history shows us that these big-ticket financial rescue plans are actually nothing new.

And that raises the question: Do they work?

A look back at history shows us that – like most government initiatives – the answer is “it depends.” While some investors might find that reassuring, history also suggests that the final tab for a…

This from Money Morning:

Although the ongoing financial crisis has introduced a new word – bailout – into the lexicon of most investors, a quick tour of history shows us that these big-ticket financial rescue plans are actually nothing new.

And that raises the question: Do they work?

A look back at history shows us that – like most government initiatives – the answer is “it depends.” While some investors might find that reassuring, history also suggests that the final tab for a…

While this week’s data from the manufacturing and housing sectors will be eagerly anticipated, nothing compares to Friday’s reports on unemployment and the picture of the ailing labor market.  After nine consecutive months of job contraction, few analysts hold out much hope for optimism.  In fact, some believe the jobless rate will climb to 7.5% during 2009.

Clearly the new president will have some major problems to solve, perhaps the biggest…

• American Express Co. (AXP) said yesterday (Thursday) that it plans to cut 7,000 jobs, or 10% of its global work force, in an effort to reduce costs by $1.8 billion in next year, The Associated Press reported. The company will also suspend management-level salary increases next year and institute a hiring freeze. American Express has reported four straight quarters of profit declines.

• Oil prices fell more than 2% yesterday (Thursday), after economic data showed a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Light, sweet crude fell $1.54 at settle $65.96 a barrel, after trading as high as $70.60…

• American Express Co. (AXP) said yesterday (Thursday) that it plans to cut 7,000 jobs, or 10% of its global work force, in an effort to reduce costs by $1.8 billion in next year, The Associated Press reported. The company will also suspend management-level salary increases next year and institute a hiring freeze. American Express has reported four straight quarters of profit declines.

• Oil prices fell more than 2% yesterday (Thursday), after economic data showed a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product (GDP). Light, sweet crude fell $1.54 at settle $65.96 a barrel, after trading as high as $70.60…

This from Money Morning:

While the U.S. government’s plan to invest $250 billion into U.S. financial institutions has been billed as a strategy that will bolster the health of the banking system and also jump-start lending, the recapitalization plan is likely to have a secondary effect – one that whipsawed U.S. taxpayers likely won’t be…

The next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled for tomorrow Wednesday Oct. 29. There is no doubt that growth will be the central issue of the committee’s discussion, as fears of a global recession are intensifying alongside deteriorating economic data.

The British Office for National Statistics’ said Friday that, after a flat second quarter,…

Bear in mind that each new economic report, earnings statement, news report or trading session represents a new opportunity for fear and uncertainty to reemerge.

Fortunately, next week’s economic calendar remains quite light, although retailers may just weigh in with “doom-and-gloom” holiday predictions.  Earnings season may be weak as well (with even more pessimistic outlooks), so investors should not overreact even if Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), Halliburton Inc. (HAL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and others fail to meet expectations.  Volatility should continue and…

The rally was sparked by commitments from the major financial nations to cooperate in getting the credit markets functioning again, and by news that U.S. officials were putting the finishing touches on Washington’s version of a rescue plan under which the U.S. Treasury Department will invest an estimated $125 billion in nine major U.S. banks, and another $125 billion in smaller financial institutions, Bloomberg News reported early this morning (Tuesday).

The White House announced that U.S. President George W. Bush would meet at 7:30 a.m. EDT today with members of his financial markets working group. He’ll make a statement about the plan at 8:05 a.m. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. “Hank” Paulson Jr., U.S. Federal Reserve Chief Ben S. Bernanke and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila C. Bair will discuss the plan during an 8:30 a.m. news conference, MarketWatch.com and Bloomberg both reported.

“These are tough times for our economies, yet we can be confident that we can work our way through these challenges and America will continue to work closely with the other nations to coordinate our response to this global financial crisis,” President Bush told reporters yesterday following a meeting with Italy Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi at the White House.

After an eight-day losing streak – the worst for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since 1996 – those dramatic worldwide developments were enough to spawn a rally of historic proportions in U.S. shares. The S&P 500 rebounded from its worst week in 75 years with an 11.6% advance, jumping 104.13 points to close at 1,003.35. The Dow zoomed 936.42 points, or 11%, to close at 9,387.61 – eviscerating the previous record of 499 points, set in March 2000, and posting its best percentage gain since 1933.

The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 194.74, or 12%, to 1,844.25. Sixteen stocks gained for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

Last week’s 18% declines pushed both the S&P 500 and Dow down more than 40% from their peaks last October.

The S&P 500 ended the trading day Friday at 17 times reported earnings of its companies, the cheapest valuation in more than a year. Yesterday’s really boosted the Price/Earnings ratio to 19.2. The S&P 500 is still down 32% this year, positioning it for its worst yearly loss since 1937.

“The worst of the immediate danger is past,” Bruce McCain, chief investment strategist at Key Private Bank (KEY) in Cleveland, which manages $30 billion, told Bloomberg, the well-known financial news service.“It’s always easier when you’ve got markets going up and you’re not having to talk clients back in off the ledge.”

Kevin Divney, chief investment officer at Putnam Investments in Boston, told Bloomberg Television that “the real catalyst is the levels of valuation.”

But not everyone was quite so sanguine. Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald cautioned that one strong day in the markets – even a record one – doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a full-fledged rebound in store.

“The real economic growth rates in the financial sector are unclear,” Fitz-Gerald said in an interview. “To say that it’s an accounting nightmare is an insult to the Hollywood honchos who actually make their living transforming nightmares into movies. Fiction writers could not concocted a better horror story than the one that’s rocked world financial markets since last November. Despite all the mergers and acquisitions, and the emergency bailouts, that we’ve seen to date, Wall Street hasn’t even begun to address the underlying business prospects – on anything more than a superficial level – of the lion’s share of the companies that are being bailed out.” [For Fitz-Gerald’s full take on yesterday’s market action – including some insights on how he believes investors should navigate the uncertainty – check out his special market commentary that appears elsewhere in today’s issue.]

All 10 industries in the S&P 500 added more than 7%. Monday’s worldwide rally – which ranged from Tokyo to New York – sent the MSCI World Index up 9.5 %, the biggest gain since the gauge was created in 1970, MarketWatch reported.

The bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday. The dollar fell the most in three weeks against the euro.

Details of a Bailout/“Rescue” Plan

On Sunday, the major European Union nations committed more than $2.3 trillion to safeguard their banks and financial system, according to The Associated Press.  Global efforts to rescue the international banking system gathered force yesterday, with Europe leading the way to provide money to shore up its financial sector and calm traders, and the U.S. hinting it’s on board with its own rescue plan, MarketWatch reported. [For details of the sweeping European rescue plan, check out this related report elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning.]

U.S. bankers were summoned to the Treasury Department yesterday, as the U.S. government prepared additional measures to stabilize markets, reported the U.S. shortwave broadcasting service, The Voice of America.

Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Paulson had called the heads of the five biggest U.S. banks to come to Washington for face-to-face talks about the rescue plan, according to people briefed on the matter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein, Morgan Stanley (MS) CEO John J. Mack, Citigroup Inc. (C) CEO Vikram Pandit, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) CEO Kenneth D. Lewis were all asked to attend, according to The AP.

The CEOs had been in Washington this past weekend to meet with international finance officials at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank. This group of U.S. banking sector leaders met with Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke for about three hours yesterday, several news sources have said.

When asked for precise details about the plan that’s to be unveiled early today, U.S. Treasury officials remained mum. Indeed, sources would only say that it would include a “series of comprehensive actions to strengthen public confidence in our financial institutions and restore functioning of our credit markets.”

However, after the CEO meetings, some details began to leak out. Industry insiders speculated late yesterday that the Federal Reserve and Treasury Department had outlined a plan to inject as much as $250 billion of the $700 billion rescue plan into top U.S. banks.

In addition, to jumpstart “Interbank” lending, the FDIC would actually insure new senior preferred debt for three years.

The Treasury Department would take the equity stakes in banks using authority it was granted under the $700 billion bank rescue plan enacted two weeks ago.

“We’re talking about making investments in these banks in a way that doesn’t necessarily punish existing shareholders,” Charles Bobrinskoy, vice chairman of Ariel Investments LLC, which manages $13 billion, said on Bloomberg TV. “Most of the bank actions to date in the U.S. have been good for bondholders but terrible for common stockholders.”

Government actions this year to prevent bankruptcies at investment bank Bear Stearns Cos., mortgage lenders Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) and insurer American International Group Inc. (AIG) resulted in near-total losses for the firms’ shareholders.

The collapse of New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (LEHMQ) on Sept. 15 precipitated the latest chapter of the 14-month-old credit crisis, causing banks to stop lending to each other out of concern they may not get their money back.

Direct investments of this magnitude represent a new approach for Treasury Secretary Paulson, who initially advocated a bailout targeted at illiquid mortgage-related assets. When the markets didn’t respond positively to earlier plans, the Treasury Department shifted gears – in a big way.

“They’ve decided they need to do something drastic and this is drastic,” Gerard S. Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets (RY) in Portland, Maine, told Bloomberg.

The proposed cash injections in exchange for preferred shares are said to be destined for Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), JP Morgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER), Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp. (STT), and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK).

“The government has gone to ‘Plan B’ and it packs a big wallop,” Frederic Dickson who helps oversee $25 billion as chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon, told the financial news service.

The Treasury plans to spend $25 billion each for stakes in Citigroup and JPMorgan, people said. Another $25 billion will be divided between Bank of America and Merrill, which agreed last month to be acquired by Bank of America. Wells Fargo is to get at least $20 billion, Goldman and Morgan Stanley will each get $10 billion, and State Street and Bank of New York will get about $3 billion each, people said.

The government will obtain its stakes with a type of security designed not to dilute the value of common shares.

None of the nine banks getting government money was given a choice about it, said people familiar with the plans. All of the banks involved will have to submit to compensation restrictions as mandated by Congress, people said.

The remaining $125 billion will be used to recapitalize other financial institutions around the country, the people said. Neel Kashkari, the U.S. Treasury official overseeing the rescue of the financial system, yesterday said the equity purchases would be aimed at “healthy” firms.

Source: Dow Zooms to Record Gain Yesterday on Reports The Government Will Reveal Banking Bailout Plan Details Early Today

At the New York close, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average Index plunged 508.39 points, or 5.11%, to close at 9,447.11. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index plummeted 108.08 points, or 5.80%, to close at 1,754.88. And the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dived 60.66 points, or 5.74%, to finish the day at 996.23.

The S&P 500 closed below 1,000 for the first time since 2003.

The Dow is down 29% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 is down over 32% over the same time period. With such huge declines, 2008 marks the worst year for the domestic markets since 1937, Bloomberg News reported.

“Capital markets are very tight right now,” Douglas Christopher, a partner at Crowell Weeden & Co. in Los Angeles, told Bloomberg. “Companies that need external financing or are perceived to need external financing are going to be given a discount in the current environment.”

The Fed’s Latest Gambit

The new Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF) will provide a backstop to the commercial paper market that has been brought to a standstill, even for those firms far removed from the financial sector.

“The immediate threat to the real economy is that large corporations are having difficulty obtaining funds via the commercial paper market,” Mark Gertler, a New York University economist, told Bloomberg.

The commercial paper market reached a three-year low of $1.6 trillion as money-market fund managers, typically huge buyers of commercial paper, became extremely risk averse after a handful of funds “broke the buck.” In a flight to quality mainly into U.S. Treasuries, money market funds liquidated commercial paper holdings by $200.3 billion, or 29%, in the final two weeks of September, according to data compiled by IMoneyNet Inc., Bloomberg reported.

Auto manufacturers, utilities and others make use of short-term lending in the commercial paper market – borrowing money for periods ranging from just overnight to three months – to cover occasional gaps in daily cash flows. The commercial paper market is vital to the ongoing operations for many large corporations, which use the short-term funds to make payroll or pay bills.

“By eliminating much of the risk that eligible issuers will not be able to repay investors by rolling over their maturing commercial paper obligations, this facility should encourage investors to once again engage in term lending in the commercial paper market,” the U.S. Federal Reserve said in a statement released yesterday (Tuesday) morning.

“An improved commercial paper market will enhance the ability of financial intermediaries to accommodate the credit needs of businesses and households,” the statement concluded.

The CPFF will remain in place until Apr. 30, 2009, at which point the Fed Board of Governors would need to vote to extend it if necessary.

“While we have continued to fund without disruption, the Fed announcement today is an important development that will help restore confidence in the market and facilitate more lending,” General Electric Co. (GE) spokesman Russell Wilkerson said, Bloomberg reported. “This is a positive move and we applaud the Fed’s decisive action.”

GE is the largest domestic commercial paper issuer through GE Capital, its financial subsidiary.

Gloomy Economic Outlook

Speaking yesterday afternoon at the National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting in Washington, D.C., Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke tried to strike a reassuring tone that the recent economic measures enacted by the government would have the intended effect, while also acknowledging the dire economic data.

“Over all, the combination of the incoming data and recent financial developments suggests that the outlook for economic growth has worsened and that the downside risks to growth have increased,” Bernanke said in his speech.

Some analysts felt this was an indication that the Fed would move to cut interest rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting slated for Oct. 28 – 29.

“The steps being taken now to restore confidence in our institutions and markets will go far to resolving the current dislocations in the markets. I believe that the bold actions taken by the Congress, the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and other agencies, together with the natural recuperative powers of the financial markets, will lay the groundwork for financial and economic recovery,” Bernanke said.

Britain’s Own Bank Bailout

Meanwhile, the global impact of the credit crisis is hitting British banks hard. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s government is preparing a rescue package in response to diving British bank shares. Royal Bank of Scotland PLC (ADR: RBS) Barclays PLC (ADR: BCS), HBOS PLC (OTC ADR: HBOOY) and Lloyds TSB Group PLC (ADR: LYG) are all in need or recapitalization, The Wall Street Journal reported.

It is unknown if Britain’s largest bank, HSBC Holdings Ltd., would need government assistance. Its capital position is currently seen as the strongest.

The U.K. government plans to announce its plan today (Wednesday).

Source: Federal Reserve to Buy Commercial Paper to Free Up Frozen Market

I was surprised; so were market observers. From Bloomberg:

U.S. Economic Growth Slower Than Initially Estimated (Update2)

By Timothy R. Homan

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy expanded more slowly than previously estimated in the second quarter, showing consumer spending was weakening before the credit crisis intensified.

The annual rate of 2.8 percent was down from a preliminary estimate of 3.3 percent issued last month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Measures of inflation were higher than previously projected. Personal consumption, trade and business investment contributed less to gross domestic product than the prior estimate, the report showed.

Americans have since cut back on purchases, businesses have put investment plans on hold, builders have scaled back and credit markets have seized up. Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley this week cut third-quarter GDP forecasts and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned the economy may falter without a $700 billion bank rescue.

"Consumer spending doesn't bode well for overall growth over the next few quarters," said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors Inc. in Detroit. "It's pretty clear now that we are in a recession, and it's a recession that still has some room to run."

...

I was surprised -- not because I think the economy is strong -- but because revisions from the preliminary release to the final are on average 0, and have a standard deviation of 0.2 ppts. In other words, they're not typically too large.

Here's a picture of the revision.

I've included Deutsche Bank's forecast from 22 September; as indicated in the graph, this was a forecast predicated upon the 3.3% growth rate in 08Q2. With the addition of new data (Chicago Fed National Activity Index, durable goods orders), it's likely that almost all forecasts are being revised downward.

Note that a good 0.37 ppts of the 0.5 ppt revision could be accounted for by consumption (net exports' contribution, as well as investment's, were the other notable factors).

Within the consumption category, it was services that exhibited the largest revision (in terms of contributions to overall GDP).

By the way, this should all remind people that GDP data get revised. These GDP figures will be revised yet again in the annual benchmark, and will undergo subsequent revisions as more complete data come in.)

In other news, I should not neglect the international dimension. Europe is clearly slowing (PMI's); Deutsche Bank is forecasting negative growth this quarter, and 0 growth next in Europe. €-coin (jointly developed by Banc d'Italia and CEPR).

In September trend growth in the Euro area has come to a standstill. €-coin dropped further, from 0.17% in August to 0.04% in September, its lowest level since the first publication of this indicator.

For Japan (according to DB), it's negative growth for the remainder of the year, following the -3.0% growth (SAAR) in 2008Q2. It is hard to see net exports contribution to US growth can be sustained at 2008Q2 rates (approximately about half attributable to exports -- the other half is due to import compression).

So, last quarter's fundamentals weren't altogether that great, and prospects are hence dimmer than even suggested by this post (from a mere 11 days ago).

For some variety, today I'm going to show the thirty day A2/P2 -- AA nonfinancial corporate paper spread.

Technorati Tags: recession, durable goods orders, PMI, consumption, and GDP.

Without the bailout, “credit will be restricted further for homeownership, for small business, for individual consumers and so on, but that is not just an inconvenience,” Bernanke said. “What that is going to do is affect spending and economic activity and it will cause the economy as a whole to decline and be much weaker than it otherwise would be.”

All three major U.S. stock indices declined - shrugging off earlier gains after investing icon Warren Buffett’s vote of confidence in Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) prompted a rally - when investors realized there will likely be no quick passage of Paulson’s bailout plan. [A related report in today’s issue of Money Morning analyzes Warren Buffett’s investment in Goldman Sachs Group].

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average Index posted a loss of 161.52 points (-1.47%), closing at 10,854.17. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 25.64 points (-1.18%), to 2,153.34. And the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 18.87 points (-1.56%), to settle at 1,188.22.

"I think investors are sitting back and waiting to see what Congress does," Fred Dickson, director of private client research and chief market strategist for DA Davidson, told TheStreet.com. "Hopefully, we’ll see something by the end of the week."

While uncertainty over the outcome of the bailout plan remains, the market will trade with a great deal of volatility, Dickson added.

In other credit-crisis-related developments yesterday:

• Bernanke pleaded before the Senate’s Joint Economic Committee for Congress to act quickly, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. "Hank" Paulson relented on some of the taxpayer safeguards Congress sought to add to his original plan.

• President George Bush’s planned to address the nation last night as Republican Presidential hopeful John McCain proposed a halt to campaign activities to focus on the ongoing bailout debate in the Senate.

• And the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) continued its ongoing investigation into some of the biggest corporate casualties of the current credit crisis.

Bernanke and Paulson’s Congressional Push

In his second day of Congressional testimony, the Fed chair appeared before the Joint Economic Committee to urge lawmakers to quickly pass the proposed legislation that would allow Paulson’s $700 billion bailout to take effect.

"Despite the efforts of the Federal Reserve, the Treasury and other agencies, global financial markets remain under extraordinary stress," Bernanke said, predicting that the U.S. economy would likely contract even with the plan’s approval, the International Herald Tribune reported. But without it, he warned, the situation would be far worse.

"Action by the Congress is urgently required to stabilize the situation and avert what otherwise could be very serious consequences for our financial markets and our economy," Bernanke said.

"With the exception of a few outliers on either side, there is clear recognition among members of both parties that we must act and act soon," said U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-NY, and the chairman of the Joint Economic Committee.

But without adequate safeguards, "then we risk the plan failing," Schumer said.

According to The New York Times, Schumer said Congress must keep in mind the opinions of the constituents who have reacted with "amazement, astonishment and intense anger" at the bailout in its original form. Debate over the details continues as lawmakers argue for more provisions to safeguard the public interest.

Paulson has relented on executive compensation caps for companies that participate in the bailout, one of the most contentious amendments proposed by Congress, according to several media reports.

Meanwhile, Buffett endorsed Paulson’s plan in an interview yesterday morning on CNBC, saying it was "absolutely necessary" to stem an "economic Pearl Harbor."

"The market could not have taken another week" like last week, Buffett told the news channel, Bloomberg News reported. "It was the last thing Hank Paulson wanted to do, but there’s no Plan B for this."

How can these guys not get it together

Give us all a break and agree to act soon, before our bank accounts, 401K's and IRA's go to zero.

We are all on the same side. We are due for a Bull rally.

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