The Federal Reserve decided to keep the Federal Funds rate unchanged at the meeting it concluded today, as expected. Below is the current Fed Statement along with the one from their September meeting in paragraph-by-paragraph format, with my translation and commentary interspersed. As the graph below shows, the market is expecting the Fed to remain on hold, with Fed Funds between 0 and 25 basis points for an extended period. The graph shows the expected outcomes for the January meeting (before today’s announcement) from the Cleveland Fed. The market set the odds of anything other than standing pat at either today’s meeting or the December meeting effectively at zero. Reading off the chart, it looks like about a 95% probability of no action in January as well. I doubt we will see the Fed raise rates before the third quarter of 2010. The Fed is ...

There were some other very interesting presentations at the conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston last week. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spoke on Financial Regulation and Supervision after the Crisis while Princeton Professor Alan Blinder's message was

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This post is a guest contribution by Dian Chu*, market analyst, trader and author of the Economic Forecasts and Opinions blog.

The dollar’s value against major currencies has fallen in recent months as the US fiscal outlook worsened and amid expectations that interest rates will remain close to zero for some time to fight the economic downturn.

This week, the euro broke above the psychologically important level of $1.50 driving gold prices to record levels, prompting many global central banks intervening on currency markets to slow the dollar’s fall (Fig 1).

How did we get here?

Since the financial crisis last fall, currency markets have taken their cues mostly from stock markets. When stocks plunged in March of this year, investors rushed to the safety of US government bonds, pushing the

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Meryn King, the British counterpart to U.S. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, had this to say in a speech yesterday: “The United Kingdom faces two fundamental long-run challenges. First, to rebalance the economy, with more resources allocated to business investment and net exports and fewer to consumption. "That is consistent with the need – now widely accepted – to eliminate the large structural fiscal deficit and to raise the national saving rate. It is part of a need for a wider rebalancing of domestic demand in the world economy away from those countries that borrowed and ran current account deficits towards those that lent and ran surpluses." Everything he has to say about the UK is true in spades for the US. The US. is more dependent on consumption than is the UK and perpetually runs trade (current account) deficits. We need for the US to ...

David Einhorn, highly respected hedge fund manager of Greenlight Capital and author of “Fooling some of the people all of the time” yesterday delivered the keynote address at the Value Investing Congress. His full speech can be accessed here, but Rolfe Winkler of Reuters has very handily published the highlights, as posted below.

On Bernanke and Geithner: Presently, Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner have become the quintessential short-term decision makers. They explicitly “do whatever it takes” to “solve one problem at a time” and deal with the unintended consequences later. It is too soon for history to evaluate their work, because there hasn’t been time for the unintended consequences of the “do whatever it takes” decision-making to materialize.

On too big to fail and the true lesson of Lehman: The proper way to deal with too-big-to-fail, or too inter-connected to fail, is to make sure

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For Immediate Release

Chicago, IL – October 19, 2009 – Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week’s list includes Eastman Chemical (EMN), E.I. DuPont (DD), T. Rowe Price (TROW), Western Digital (WDC) and SuperValu (SVU). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

Every day, Zacks.com makes 4 stock picks available, free of charge. To see them, go to http://at.zacks.com/?id=5612.

This Week's Events

Third-quarter earnings season hits full stride this week with 439 companies confirmed to report. More than of a quarter of these are from the S&P 500 (135 companies).

Housing data will be the highlight on the economic calendar. The existing home sales data will be influenced by the first-time home buyers' credit. The starts and permits data could be more interesting, especially if they show fear on the part of builders about the subsidy

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U.S. stocks ended modestly higher Friday, wounding up a week of solid gains as investors braced for the third-quarter financial results.  Sentiments also got a boost after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that the central bank will be ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves.  Bernanke’s tightening comments helped the dollar regain some lost ground.  Bond prices fell sharply. 

After a two-week selloff, fueled in part by concerns that the seven-month old rally had gotten ahead of any economic recovery, stocks got a boost last week following better-than-estimated economic numbers and Alcoa’s (NYSE:AA) surprise quarterly profit.  That helped investors set aside worries and extend the rally.  Meanwhile, White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers reiterated the Obama administration’s commitment to a strong dollar, citing recent comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

This morning’s stock futures show markets are headed for a higher opening as the busy

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This post provides links to a number of thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find interesting.

• John Authers (Financial Times): Triumph of common sense over benchmarks, October 3, 2009. Rather than watch everyone herd towards benchmarks, while charging fees for active management, in future perhaps a lot of money will be managed passively and the rest will be allocated to investors who can show they have skill, and who have the freedom to go wherever they believe they can profit.

• Randall Forsyth (Barron’s): Is this a real bull or “Red Bull” market? October 2, 2009. After the caffeine rush of the third quarter, stocks and Treasuries give way to less stimulating market action.

• Paul Krugman (The New York Times): Mission not accomplished, October 2, 2009. Stocks are up. Ben

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Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke proposed a new regulatory mechanism to monitor and respond to broad risks affecting the financial system. This would consist of a panel that would exist outside of the Fed, tapping resources from all agencies with current oversight over the financial system. The proposal is a move by Bernanke to thwart efforts to give the Fed more power. It also increases the potential penalties for taking excessive risk by imposing losses on shareholders and bondholders. Bernanke is bringing forth some good ideas. Particularly, his call for coordination across multiple agencies is something that should fortified by regulation. Clearly, the joint actions by the Fed and the Treasury Department have helped to prevent the current crisis from becoming worse. This said, turf wars in Washington may make accomplishing this goal difficult in the future. His proposal also ...

Speaking before the House Financial Services Committee, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke proposed a new regulatory mechanism to monitor and respond to broad risks affecting the financial system. This would consist of a panel that would exist outside of the Fed, tapping resources from all agencies with current oversight over the financial system. The proposal is a move by Bernanke to thwart efforts to give the Fed more power. It also increases the potential penalties for taking excessive risk by imposing losses on shareholders and bondholders. Bernanke is bringing forth some good ideas. Particularly, his call for coordination across multiple agencies is something that should fortified by regulation. Clearly, the joint actions by the Fed and the Treasury Department have helped to prevent the current crisis from becoming worse. This said, turf wars in Washington may make accomplishing this goal difficult in the future. His proposal also ...