I thought it of interest to see what surveys of forecasters indicate about two questions being asked: Is a dollar collapse imminent -- Martin Wolf is skeptical, while others [0] are convinced the end is nigh -- and is a double dip recession likely? I take a look at the messages conveyed by FX4casts.com and the WSJ October survey of forecasters.

The Dollar

First, let's take a look at what a survey of approximately 50 banks and financial firms indicates, for the value of the dollar (Fed broad index) and the euro/dollar exchange rate.

Figure 1: Log dollar index (broad) (blue), mean forecast (red squares), high and low forecasts (95% bounds) (teal +). Forecast dates typically pertain to 4th Thursday in each month. NBER defined recessions shaded gray, assumes last recession ends 09Q2. Source: Federal Reserve via St. Louis Fed FRED II, FX4casts.com, NBER, ...