Our issue is how to reconcile the opposite views of experts in the bond world versus experts in the stock world.  The market is always full of opposing views.  One stock guy predicts UP and the other predicts DOWN.  However, when the bond guys and the stock guys disagree, that is a more fundamental problem for us.

We have a tendency to think of bond guys as more detailed and more fundamental in their thinking and process than stock guys, so maybe a bit more right.  That could be entirely wrong and unfair, but one thing is sure — they can’t both be right if they predict opposite outcomes, unless the are predicting based on different time frames — then they can both be right.

Anyway, this is the kind of headlines day that makes us want to toss our hands in the air and go fishing.

First you see this:

July 13 (Bloomberg)

BULL - June 1: Deutsche Bank US equity analyst Binky Chadha forecasts S&P 500 at 1060 by 2009 year-end, citing improving corporate profit margins.  He said aggregate profit margins for S&P 500 “remains well below the average of the last few years, implying considerable potential upside over the medium term.”

BULL - June 1: JP Morgan Chase analyst Thomas Lee forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.

BULL - June 1: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst David Bianco forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.

BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this S&P 500 rally. He says Morgan Stanley does not see large upside above 825-850.  He said,  “In the rush to buy a cyclical recovery, it seems earnings or valuation no longer matters. We would be comfortable with this view if the earnings trough was closer, but it is not.”

BEAR - MAY 28: Berkshire