Sound the alarm bells! A collision with reality is dead ahead!

The elephant in the room blasted out a mighty honk last weekend in a report by Access Economics, as reported in today’s Australian. “Batten the hatches,” Access says. “This is not just a recession. This is the sharpest deceleration Australia’s economy has ever seen.” Access adds that the federal budget is “buggered.”

“Leading economic forecaster Access Economics warns in its quarterly Business Outlook, released today, that the nation’s economic boom will ‘unwind scarily fast’, halving corporate profits, costing more than 300,000 people their jobs and blowing out the current account deficit to more than $100 billion.”

Dire stuff indeed. But the question from last week remains, is this massive dose of negative news already priced into Australian stocks? Or is it a further hammer blow that will drive them to new lows?

So far, the market seems to be taking the prospect of

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Not much. The world keeps turning. And the world economy keeps falling apart. Here in Australia, shares of port and rail outfit Asciano (AIO) fell off the table after a Citigroup analyst changed his valuation of the company and moved it from “buy” to “sell.” Asciano is down 93% from its all time high and was down nearly 60% yesterday before going into a trading halt.

Asciano has $4 billion debt on the books (much of it inherited from when the company was spun from Toll in 2007). But yesterday the company assured investors it wouldn’t be beefing up the equity on the balance sheet with another dilutive capital raising. And chairman Tim Poole told investors earnings were in line with forecasts.

The trouble is that with all that debt and, shall we say, challenging business conditions, investors aren’t convinced the equity in the company is worth anything anymore. This

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