Ukrainian Railway have defaulted on a Barclays bond. They have another, government guaranteed obligation with Deutsche Bank. If Deutsche Bank accelerates the payment interest it is then not paid, it will count as a government default, according to Moody’s.   “Sovereign debt isn’t a major issue in the market today and was not a main reason that caused this crisis [...]

The video clips below provide a handy summary of the reports expected on the economic, financial and corporate front around the globe during the week ahead.

US: Retailers, health care

There still are 60 S&P companies left to report earnings, but markets will kick off against a backdrop of weaker jobs and mixed data. Major retail names will release results, and there’s also key legislation from Capitol Hill.

Europe: Barclays, Vodafone, A-B InBev

As telecom operators report results, Spain will be one of the main markets investors focus on. Barclays and A-B InBev also will report third-quarter results.

Asia: Economic data front and center

Chinese economic data will be front and center in Asia. Beijing will report inflation and trade

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• Adecco announced plans to acquire professional staffing firm MPS (NYSE:MPS) for $1.3 billion

• Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) bettered earnings and revenue expectations with third quarter adjusted results of 51 cents a share, 3 cent higher than Zacks estimates, on revenues of $11.6 billion, which beat Zacks estimates of $11.47 billion. Full-year guidance was also raised to $2.00-$2.05 from $1.90-$2.00 prior

• United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) third quarter numbers beat consensus estimates with earnings of $1.14 versus Zacks estimates of $1.12 on revenues of $13.38 billion up from estimates of $13.40 billion. The firm expects full year earnings in the mid-point of its earlier guidance of $4.00-$4.20

• State Street (NYSE:STT) reported third quarter operating earnings of $1.05 a share, beating Zacks estimates of $1.00 a share, as revenues of $2.77 billion were above estimates of $2.22 billion. However, the company lowered full-year operating results from $4.25-$4.50 to $4.13-$4.17

• Comerica (NYSE:CMA) reported third quarter earnings

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I thought it of interest to see what surveys of forecasters indicate about two questions being asked: Is a dollar collapse imminent -- Martin Wolf is skeptical, while others [0] are convinced the end is nigh -- and is a double dip recession likely? I take a look at the messages conveyed by FX4casts.com and the WSJ October survey of forecasters.

The Dollar

First, let's take a look at what a survey of approximately 50 banks and financial firms indicates, for the value of the dollar (Fed broad index) and the euro/dollar exchange rate.

Figure 1: Log dollar index (broad) (blue), mean forecast (red squares), high and low forecasts (95% bounds) (teal +). Forecast dates typically pertain to 4th Thursday in each month. NBER defined recessions shaded gray, assumes last recession ends 09Q2. Source: Federal Reserve via St. Louis Fed FRED II, FX4casts.com, NBER, ...

• Blackstone (NYSE:BX) announced plans to list up to eight Blackstone-owned firms and sell at least five additional companies

• Barclays (NYSE:BCS) reported plans to spin off a $6.35 billion portfolio of complex credit assets as it seeks to clean up its balance sheet

• Phillips Electronics (NYSE:PHG) reported better-than-expected third quarter earnings, helped by cost-cutting measures, although the company said most markets are yet to see recovery

• Deutsche Bank (NYSE:DB) lifted Johnson & Johnson's (NYSE:JNJ) price target to $67 from $63 and maintained its "buy" rating on the stock, as the analyst noted "Ahead of Tuesdays earnings call we are raising our price target to $67 (prior $63) based on improving comparable multiples, new product approvals, stabilization in the global economy, and FX tailwinds all [of] which should add to earnings in 4Q and next year. We expect management will focus on continued healthy trends in its Medical Device & Diagnostic

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A lot is made of relative returns and how one strategy or fund does against the SP500.  While not the best benchmark for something like Global Macro it is nonetheless the benchmark that everyone is most familiar with and that is used the most on CNBC and in magazines.  So how does global macro stack up to the SP500?

The chart below shows how $1000 invested in the SP500 and the Barclays Global Macro Index would have done for YTD for 2009.  As you can see the SP500 while getting off to a rocky start is now leading the macro index by 9.68% so far.  While the performance of the SP500 has been impressive the other side of the story is that to get the 18.04% return in the SP500 you first had to go through a -19.56% drawdown in January and February to get it.  Contrast that to

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Its almost comical to see the big banks coming out of the woodwork with their opinions on how high gold is going to go now. If you are a trader (I am not) maybe that means its time for a little pullback. Certainly is alot of confidence oozing from this article. Gold, ‘Off The Charts’, May Target $1,500: Technical Analysis By Glenys Sim Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) — Investors should hold onto long positions in gold as bullion has “significant upside potential” to reach as high as $1,500 an ounce, Barclays Capital said, citing trading patterns. “Having rallied ‘off the charts’, we are left to resort to projections and extrapolated trendlines to forecast where the move might stop,” Jordan Kotick, global head of technical analysis at Barclays Capital, wrote in a note e-mailed today. So-called trendlines are used to determine momentum and are found ...

The cost of insuring against the default of major financial institutions has reached its lowest level since June 2008, according to the Counterparty Risk Index from Credit Derivatives Research LLC.

The chart below shows the Counterparty Risk Index (CRI) history since the beginning of 2008. The index is an unweighted average of the credit default swap spreads of 14 major financial institutions. The left-hand scale gives the cost (in basis points) of insuring against default for a five-year term.

 

 

The three big spikes on the chart mark the near-failure of Bear Stearns (in March 2008), the Lehman default (September 2008) and renewed concerns over bank safety at the market’s nadir in March 2009.

If crises appeared at six-monthly intervals since last spring, this time we appear to have broken out of the cycle.

What about the individual banks that make up the index? Here is a chart,

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U.S. stocks broke a three-day slide and rose more than 1% Monday as a fresh round of strategic corporate deal-making spurred hopes that normalcy is returning to the financial system.  The multi-billion dollar merger announcements signaled a resurrection in merger activity and investors picked up stocks. 

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 124 points, or 1.3% and the broader S&P 500 index rallied 19 points, or 1.8% and the Nasdaq composite index advanced 40 points, or 1.9%.  The share gains were broad based with 28 of the 30 Dow components advancing.  On the New York Stock Exchange, four stocks rose for each one that declined in price.  Only 978 million shares exchanged hands on the NYSE.  Trading was light due to the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur.     

In a spate of big corporate merger announcements, Abbott Labs (NYSE:ABT) said it will pay $6.5 billion for Solvay's pharmaceutical business, and

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Barclays is saying the U.S. is out of a recession and headed for veritable boom times. IndexUniverse's Matt Hougan and Dave Nadig aren't so sure.