Wednesday December 3, 2008 Navivest

It seems that the automakers will definitely get the help that they are seeking from Congress, if the words of Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House is any indication. Yesterday evening, while commenting on the plan that the automakers are submitting to congress, she stated that bankruptcy is not an option for the companies and that what would take a year to accomplish with bankruptcy, congress can do in a matter of weeks.

This came just as the stock market was closing at 4PM, so the auto stocks did not have time to react in regular trading.

While this is not a done deal, to the extent that the democrats are in control of congress, and democratic President-elect Barack Obama is calling for helping Main Street, not just Wall Street, it seems that there is a good chance of the automakers getting help from the

Will current Bank of Israel head Stanley Fischer be leaving Israel for the New York Fed? According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Fischer is considered to be a dark horse to fill the vacancy left by Timothy Geithner, who is joining Pres. elect Barack Obama as Treasury Secretary.

According to the Journal, “Outsiders who could be considered include Peter Fisher, a former Treasury official who is now a senior executive at BlackRock Inc.; Stanley Fischer, an economist who runs Israel’s central bank; and Roger Ferguson, a former deputy Fed chairman who is now chief executive of TIAA-CREF, an investment firm that specializes in serving academic institutions.”

The question is whether if this is so, does this mean the Israeli economy is about to go into the gutter. Fischer has a history of bailing out just in the nick of

Japanese yen rallies…  Renminbi stumbles…  A very tough data week in store…  Rate cuts all around the world… And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Well… When I left you last Wednesday, I had thought that we could be on the cusp of a “change” in the currencies, as the Trading Theme that had held a tight grip on the currencies since July, was thrown to the side for a couple of days… But, I doubt “that” has happened, as a return to risk aversion is back on the table, which means the currencies and precious metals get sold, while Japanese yen, and U.S. Treasuries (read dollars) get bought.

And Japanese yen is “getting bought!” Yen is trading

Data continue negative in the US…  China cuts rates… Chinese currency reserves to hit $2 trillion… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

It sounds like retailers may be disappointed with the results of this years biggest shopping day, as there really isn’t any ‘must have’ items, and consumers are being a little tighter with their wallets.

Consumer spending as reported in the US on Tuesday slid the most in seven years last month. Another report released by the Commerce department showed business investment also tumbled last month. Orders for US durable goods fell twice as much as forecast. And spending in Europe, the UK, and Japan is also dropping. UK consumer spending dropped the most since 1995 and business investment also fell. The global slowdown has hit consumer and business confidence, encouraging them to reign in their spending. This can become a vicious cycle, as the slowdown in consumer and business spending causes

How many economic-advice-giving organizations does it take to run a White House?

MarketWatch reports:

President-elect Barack Obama tapped former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to run a new White House advisory board tasked with offering independent advice about how to stage an economic recovery. Obama named the 81-year-old Volcker to head the President's Economic Recovery Advisory Board....

The board is modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board that gave President Dwight Eisenhower independent opinions on intelligence issues. Austan Goolsbee, another key Obama adviser, will serve as the economic board's staff director and chief economist.

Volcker can be single-handedly credited with ending the great inflation of the 1970s, and has been critical of the unorthodox steps that Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has taken to address our current challenges. Although I share some of Volcker's concerns, it is not clear to me what specifically Volcker would propose to do instead.

The election of Barack Obama as president is essentially a vote for green energy over fossil fuels, says Andy Obermueller. Even though oil prices have fallen, wind power is a renewable energy source with a big global future. And investors should move quickly to make big profits when the government pumps money into the industry.

This from Smart Profits Report:

The winds of change are coming…

Not only does that include Barack Obama taking office in a little under two months time, it could also include a natural energy resource receiving an increasing amount of attention.

Last year was a breakthrough year for the U.S. wind industry, with total wind-power capacity rising by 45%. That accounted for 30% of all new power production.

And if you think wind made impressive advances when an oilman was in the White House, just wait until President Barack Obama takes office.

During the presidential election, Obama made renewable and alternative

The incoming Obama administration is expected to launch a stimulus package that could reach up to $1 trillion. Martin Hutchinson says this is a popular - yet high-risk - strategy. In so far as the plan increases the budget deficit and national debt, while crowding out private-sector investment, the long-term damage to the economy could outweigh the stimulus benefits.

This from Money Morning:

The British government this week unveiled a stimulus plan that will boost that country’s budget deficit to $181 billion (118 billion pounds), the equivalent of 8.0% of gross domestic product (GDP). U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s stimulus plan, when combined with the recession, may raise the U.S. federal deficit to $1.2 trillion, or 8.0% of U.S. GDP.

This raises the question: If it’s so easy to stimulate an economy, why don’t we do it all the time? Don’t such large deficits cause problems?

There

The U.S. Federal Reserve and Treasury Department announced yesterday (Tuesday) $800 billion worth of stimulus measures to rev up three primary engines of the U.S. economy – homebuyers, consumers and small businesses.

This newest economic infusion follows a $700 billion banking system bailout package that was unveiled in late October. At least half the cash has been injected directly into U.S. banks and insurance companies, firing off a flurry of takeover deals – with more expected to come. And it precedes an anticipated package being designed by the new economic team that’s been assembled by President-elect Barack Obama. That package is still in its formative stages, but estimates of its ultimate size range from $500 million to $1.2 billion.

The $800 billion package unveiled by the Fed and Treasury Department yesterday consisted of several parts.

In one statement, the Fed announced it would purchase as much as $500

President-elect Barack Obama yesterday (Monday) formally unveiled his economic team, including the nomination of New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy F. Geithner as the new administration’s U.S. Treasury secretary. The team’s first challenge will be assembling an economic stimulus package that could be even larger than the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) the Bush Administration has deployed.

The nomination of Geithner to succeed current U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. was leaked over the weekend, and was reported by Money Morning yesterday.

Geithner (pronounced: GITE-ner) obtained a Master of Arts degree in International Economics and East Asian Studies from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies in 1985. He also has studied Japanese and Chinese and has lived in present-day Zimbabwe, India, Thailand and China.

As

President-elect Barack Obama today announced more details of the economic team that will be advising the new president. I find these quite encouraging.

The Wall Street Journal reports:

Speaking at a news conference in Chicago, Mr. Obama unveiled the team that will lead his administration's response to the slumping economy and battered financial markets, confirming that New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner will be nominated to replace Henry Paulson at the Treasury Department.... In addition to Mr. Geithner, Mr. Obama said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers will head his National Economic Council, while economist Christina Romer will lead the Council of Economic Advisors and Melody Barnes will be director of the Domestic Policy Council.

I'm particularly reassured to hear that Larry Summers will head the National Economic Council. How much power this position involves will depend on how the internal White House politics play out, but potentially this