Institutional investors that own debt issued by Naftogaz, Ukraine’s state-owned gas firm, are waiting to learn their fate as the $500m worth of Eurobonds September 30th due date rapidly approaches. While some may have initially assumed that continued IMF largesse–$10bn of a $16.4bn standby loan program has now been disbursed–would render restructuring talk kaput, the country’s acting finance minister continues to insist that a restructuring will go ahead. Meanwhile, prices for the corporate debt, once considered almost sovereign in nature given the company’s government ties, fell over twenty percent last week, prompting cynics to speculate that the government was trying to manipulate prices downwards and hence make them easier to pay.  Finally, Moody’s, while downgrading the debt in question to Caa2 from Caa1, announced on Friday that “the probability of extraordinary government support to prevent a default should now be classified in the low rather

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The Housing Market: Three Strikes Against Buyers

by Alexander Green, Chairman, Investment U Investment Director, The Oxford Club Monday, January 26, 2009: Issue #922

We all know that, within the housing market, home sales are in the tank, foreclosures are up and prices are down from the past few years.

What a wonderful time to be a buyer, right? Don’t believe it.

If you live in the hardest hit areas like Miami, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Orlando or a few others, there are bargains out there for the picking.

But in most towns, the real values are few and far between. The nation’s housing market is completely dysfunctional right now, in my view.

3 Types Of Sellers In The Housing Market

Three types of sellers in the housing market are preventing prices from reaching their natural level.

The first is the home seller ...

PGold demand is exploding highernbsp;... shouldn’t be a surprise.nbsp;-- LarrybrbrRECORD DOLLAR DEMAND FOR GOLD AS WORLD LOOKS FOR HAVEN FROM TURMOILbrbrNovember 19, 2008 (WORLD GOLD COUNCIL) -- Dollar demand for gold reached an all time quarterly record of US$32bn in the third quarter of 2008 as investors around the world sought refuge from the global financial meltdown, and jewellery buyers returned to the market in droves on a lower gold price. This figure was 45% higher than the previous record in Q2 2008.Tonnage demand was also 18% higher than a year earlier.brbrIdentifiable investment demand, which incorporates demand for gold through exchange traded funds (ETFs) and bars and coins, was the biggest contributor to overall demand during the quarter, up to US$10.7bn (382 tonnes), double year earlier levels, according to Gold Demand Trends, released today by World Gold Council (WGC).brbrThe figures, compiled independently for WGC by GFMS Limited, show retail investment ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona"The Kazakh government is ready to step in,'' Kazakhstan's Prime Minister Karim Masimov said this morning in a telephone interview with Bloomberg "The Kazakh banking system with the support of the government and central bank will fulfill all obligations to international investors.....We have our own specific plan to survive without any external support....I don't think we need support from the International Monetary Fund or overseas.'' Well that is good news, so at least we know that one of the CIS and CEE economies won't be looking to the IMF for bail-out support in this crisis which is presently growing by the day. So Kazakstan, that country which is reputedly host to reserves of approximately 95% of the elements in the periodic table, with a population of around 15 million housed on a surface area greater than the whole of Western Europe, is going to be able to look after itself. But hang on a minute, just where is Kazakhstan, and just what have they been getting up to over there, and why the hell should I take Karim Masimov's word for it, when just about all the other Iceland Look-alike show contestants seem to be saying the same? After all, didn't those extermely bright and able young people over at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto say in a report only last week that, along with Latvia, the country's $100 billion oil-led economy is among the most vulnerable to the present global credit crisis and the skid-row economic trajectories that go with it simply because of its excessive reliance on short-term foreign borrowing. And isn't it the case that the cost of protecting Kazakhstan government debt against default has more than doubled this month - to over 1,000 basis points (or 10%), the level for borrowers that investors term ``distressed,'' according to CMA Datavision credit-default swap prices. Only Ukraine, which as we know is already seeking IMF support, is classified as being a bigger risk among European emerging-market governments. Surely all those highly dedicated, bright, and extremely able young people who are doing all that trading know what they are about, don't they?

During the years 2000-2007 the Kazakhstan economy enjoyed an extended period of very rapid growth, with real GDP growth averaging 10 percent annually. The expansion was underpinned by the development of the oil sector, prudent macroeconomic policies, structural reforms, and increased access to global financial markets. As a result, real per capita incomes have doubled since 2000 and social indicators have generally improved. • The global financial turmoil that began last summer had a significant impact on the Kazakhstan economy. Market perceptions of risk on Kazakhstan's assets rose sharply last September and remain relatively elevated. • Economic growth is expected to drop back significantly in the wake of the financial shock, but is still likely to sustain significant growth. The IMF are forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent in 2008 and a modest recovery to 6.25 percent in 2009. • Consumer ...