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Prieur’s readings (September 19, 2009)

Prieur du Plessis (September 19th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to a number of interesting articles I have read over the past few days that you may also enjoy.

• Spencer (Angry Bear): Stock market when EPS growth turns positive, September 18, 2009. Unless the economy-market is on the verge of a major unforeseen calamity S&P 500 earnings per share growth will turn positive in the fourth quarter. Generally analysts are positive on the market because they expect very strong earnings growth in 2010. This will be the twelfth time since 1950 that earnings growth has turned positive.

• Jennifer Hughes (Financial Times): Risks of treading in the tracks of fallen angels, September 19, 2009. Talk about recovery and equity, not bond markets, are the classic upside bet. But this is not likely to be a strong, rapid recovery; instead, most economists are forecasting something far more tentative and

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Banks Blocking Regulation – Analyst Blog

Dirk Van Dijk (June 1st, 2009) Writes:
While most of the news today is focused on the General Motors (GM) bankruptcy, there was an article in the New York Times that is worth reading about the efforts of the banks to get back to business as usual, with no significant changes to the regulatory structure (other that pure cosmetics). This, after the combination of de-regulation and lack of enforcement of financial regulations brought the world to the edge of the financial abyss and caused incredible pain and suffering in the real economy -- not only here in the U.S. but around the globe.Now, lobbying is a constitutional right enjoyed by all citizens, and ever since the Santa Ana Railroad decision in the late 19th century, that right has been extended to corporations. But it does not mean that our elected representatives have to take these people seriously. UFO witnesses also have ...

Prieur’s readings

Prieur du Plessis (May 30th, 2009) Writes:

This post provides links to some thought-provoking articles I have read over the past few days that you may also find of interest.

• Paul McCulley (Pimco - Global Central Bank Focus): The shadow banking system and Hyman Minsky’s economic journey, May 2009. As we look for answers about the current financial crisis, it’s clear that creative financing played a massive role in propelling the global financial system to hazy new heights - before leading the way into the depths of a systemic crisis. But how did financing get so creative? It didn’t happen within the confines of a regulated banking system, which submits to strict regulatory requirements in exchange for the safety of government backstopping. Instead, financing got so creative through the rise of a “shadow banking system,” which operated legally, yet almost completely outside the realm of bank regulation. The rise of this system drove

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Stress Test Leaks

Jeffrey Miller (May 6th, 2009) Writes:
Here at "A Dash" it seem like amateur hour in analyzing the stress tests and the various leaks. People who have little experience with government and policy making are rushing to judgment about the process. Let us consider a prominent example.  David Wiedner at the WSJ writes as follows: On the eve of the official announcement, the U.S. Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve are leaking stress-test results like pipes in a 100-year-old house. Out of the tens of thousands of readers of his column, we are probably the only ones who clicked through to all of the sources and tried to determine what the journalists said.  None of them are citing a "high government official" or a "well-placed government source."  Quite the opposite, and no support for the allegation. We had a similar experience today on RealMoney, TheStreet.com's site ...

Controversial Stress Tests Reveal Only One Bank Needs Capital, but Worries Remain

Contrarian Profits (April 27th, 2009) Writes:

Only one of the 19 financial institutions that received a bank stress test would require additional capital, the controversial government initiative has reportedly concluded.

The identity of the bank that is alleged to have failed the bank stress test was not revealed.

The bank-stress-test findings were reported yesterday (Sunday) by CNBC.com, which said it obtained the information from a source that it did not identify. The source did not identify the company, CNBC.com reported.

“At least one firm – under the [bank] stress test assumptions – will require more capital,” the source said.

The bank-stress-test results were contained in a two-dozen-page report that the government released Friday. But the results had already been “conveyed” to the firms, meaning the bank in question is aware of the U.S. central bank’s assessment, according to the published report.

This round of bank stress tests was essentially a two-step process. The

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G20 Leaders Miss The Point… Bad News For Future Policy

Contrarian Profits (November 19th, 2008) Writes:

The G20 leader are wrong to blame reckless private banks for this credit crisis, says Martin Hutchinson. They were allowed to disregard risks by an overly accommodative monetary policy. Martin says this error means the focus of imminent new bank regulation will miss the key issues.

This from Money Morning:

The gathering of 20 largest industrial countries in Washington this past weekend – billed as a crucial G20 summit – turned out to be a rather dull scrum.

There were promises of a coordinated approach to bank regulation, additional economic stimulus packages, and increased allocations for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) –one of the five “aftershock-investing” opportunities Money Morning has counseled readers to watch for. But none of the G20 meeting proposals seemed even remotely likely to make a difference in the here and now.

Even so, when you consider the kind of mischief the world’s 20

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Fed Hires Former Bear Stearns Risk Officer To Regulate Banks

Andrew Snyder (November 5th, 2008) Writes:

If you were in charge of risk management at a company that imploded due to over-leveraging, you might expect a tough time finding a new job. Not Michael Alix though. The former chief risk officer at Bear Stearns has just been hired by the Fed to advise on bank regulation. No joke.

More from Andrew Snyder at Today’s Financial News:

In one of the latest what-were-you-thinking moves, the Federal Reserve just announced it has hired Michael Alix as a bank regulation advisor.

Who the heck is Michael Alix, you ask? He is the former chief risk officer at Bear Stearns, a company that thought risk-management was an oxymoron. Essentially, he is the guy that allowed Bear Stearns to get so over-leveraged, it collapsed under its own weight.

Now, he is an advisor for the Federal Reserve. At the very least, he can tell us what not to do.

Frankly, I believe the Fed’s hiring of

...

Fed Hires Ex-Bear Stearns Risk Officer To Regulate Banks

Andrew Snyder (November 5th, 2008) Writes:

If you were in charge of risk management at a company that imploded due to over-leveraging, you might expect a tough time finding a new job. Not Michael Alix though. The former chief risk officer at Bear Stearns has just been hired by the Fed to advise on bank regulation. No joke.

More from Andrew Snyder at Today’s Financial News:

In one of the latest what-were-you-thinking moves, the Federal Reserve just announced it has hired Michael Alix as a bank regulation advisor.

Who the heck is Michael Alix, you ask? He is the former chief risk officer at Bear Sterns, a company that thought risk-management was an oxymoron. Essentially, he is the guy that allowed Bear Sterns to get so over-leveraged, it collapsed under its own weight.

Now, he is an advisor for the Federal Reserve. At the very least, he can tell us what not to do.

Frankly, I believe the Fed’s hiring of

...

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