by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Italy's recession deepened at the start of 2009, with first-quarter gross domestic product falling to its worst level since at least 1980, confirming the impression that Europe's fourth-largest economy is now headed for its worst downturn since World War II. Preliminary data from the national statistics office (Istat) show that Italian GDP fell 2.4% in the first quarter when compared with the last quarter of 2008. This follows a downwardly revised 2.1% contraction in the fourth quarter of last year. Annualised this means a 9.6% contraction rate during the three months, which is very high indeed.br /br /pa href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sg0skEokxwI/AAAAAAAAN6U/_zHT8IVLSh4/s1600-h/italy+GDP+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335970131734742786" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 229px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/Sg0skEokxwI/AAAAAAAAN6U/_zHT8IVLSh4/s400/italy+GDP+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /br /Year on year GDP fell by 5.9%, which was also the sharpest drop since Istat's most recent data series starts in 1980 - or for ...

First of all, I hope that my readers have passed a nice couple of days with their families and friends and that they are ready to pick up the baton again here after Easter. One who sadly will not be joining us as we move forward is Greg Newton author of the blog Naked Shorts who passed away recently from a heart attack. I shall immediately confess that I only, on rare occasions, stopped by NS to get a dose of the often very sharp pen wielded by Greg. However, with endorsements and fine obits from the likes of Felix, Cass, and Hempton I am more than convinced that the econsphere has lost a great presence. My thoughts go out to his friends and family.

Meanwhile and here in Denmark things are definitely getting better. After a March of cold and

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /There is no doubt about it: Italy's economic situation has worsened considerably during the current quarter. Only last week the OECD forecast that Italy's gross domestic product is likely to fall by 4.2 percent in 2009. This follows hot on the heals of an earlier statement where the OECD said the situation in Italy this year and next was "much worse" than it had previously thought, and that Italy would not come out of its recession until "sometime" in 2010 at the earliest. According to the earlier forecast the OECD expected GDP to fall this year by one percent and then by a further 0.8 percent in 2010.br /br /The Bank of Italy has also changed its forecast, and now suggest that GDP this year will fall by 2.6 percent. In January (the last time they revised their Italy forecast), the IMF forecast ...

By Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The Italian economy continued to contract sharply in the third quarter of 2008 as exports fell sharply - declining at the fastest rate in three years - under the impact of a global slump which weighed down on foreign demand for Italian products, and pushed the Italian economy into its worst recession since at least 1975. Sales of Italian goods abroad fell 1.6 percent from the previous quarter, their biggest decline since 2005.br /br /Pressure is of course on the government to offer a fiscal reponse to the problem, but given Italy's outstanding debt issues and the fact that a large part of the problem is long term structural and not cyclical it is hard to see much of note happening, and indeed Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti's statement this week that additional stimulus packages were pretty pointless could be read as more of an admission ...

There was virtually nothing in the price action of gold in the Far East on Friday that suggested that there would be an explosion in the gold price on Friday morning at the Comex open. I’d gone to bed at 5:00 a.m. New York time after filing my Thursday rant that you read yesterday morning. True, at the usual 3:00 a.m. time, gold had peaked at the lofty price of $759. But two hours later the price was still at $759.

So when I hit the ‘On’ button on the computer yesterday morning, I was hoping and praying that we would be away to the races when the Kitco gold chart came up…and we were. I’m encouraged by the fact that gold managed to finish on its highs in electronic trading after the Comex had closed for the day. The markets are very thin there…especially on Fridays…and it would have been

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