This week, initial claims for unemployment insurance (or jobless claims) were 505,000, the same as last week’s revised figure. However, the initial read was 502,000, so it is just as valid to see this as a 3,000 increase.
That, however, is not much in the overall scale of things. The four-week average fell by 6,500 to 514,000, and is now almost 145,000 below its mid-April peak.
The graph below (from
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/) shows the very significant progress that has been made in brining initial claims down, but also the long way we still have to go. The four-week average is still above the peaks of the two previous recessions. It is also still at a level that would indicate continuing net job losses. We probably have to see initial claims fall below the 400,000 level to indicate that, on balance, the economy is adding jobs.
On the positive ...
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