Wherever we’re going, are we there yet? Nope! But we’re getting there. That is, America is sleepwalking its way into poverty. China is performing a kind of financial alchemy. And Australia finds itself subject to American-style problems, but benefitting from China’s Grand Economic Strategy.

But how about those powerful idealists on U.S. markets? Both the S&P 500 and the Dow were up nearly three percent. If you can believe it, they were led by financial stocks and retailers. Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) finished up 9.9% after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) put it on its “conviction buy” list. Home hardware retailer Lowes was up 8.1% after a survey of U.S. homebuilder confidence surged.

By the way, what the hell is a “conviction buy” list? Does that mean you can only recommend stocks in which the executives have been convicted of a crime? And if it means a share you can buy with

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by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The title to this post poses an interesting question I think, since the answer you give to it would seem to depend more on the meaning you attribute to the word "really" than on any consensually agreed objective fact. This is especially the case since Spain itself has at least two "official" unemployment numbers, so the backround to (and reason for my asking) the question is the apparent divergence between these two numbers (one from the national statistics office, and one from the employment office INEM), both of which were given extensive international press coverage recently, with the ensuing "spread" between one reading and the other causing general confusion and even leading some to question the very validity of the whole Spanish "headcount" process. br /br /As we shall see, what we have here is not necessarily a simple "fudging" of numbers, but rather ...

If the pattern of the ’30s holds, we won’t see the stock market bottom until 2011.

When we left three weeks ago, it was cold and rainy in Europe…and the world was in the midst of a terrible financial crisis.

But now we’re back…and everything has changed. The trees along the Boulevard de la Villette have leafed out. Flowers are in bloom. People are sitting at sidewalk cafes. Life seems to be returning to normal. As expected, the financial world seems to be walking with a lighter step. It feels the sun on its face…and guesses that the long winter is behind it.

“Encouraging signs” are everywhere, says Le Monde. In fact, all the news reports say they see them. Consumer sentiment isn’t as bad as it used to be. Stocks are rising. The banks are back in business.

“How to profit from the recovery,” says one headline.

“Stocks point to end of downturn,”

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Tuesday afternoon’s closing bell on Wall Street didn’t just signal the end of the trading day. It also rang in the start of first-quarter earnings season.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) had the ominous and unenviable task of being the first of the Dow Industrials to step up to the plate. And like a tubby first baseman who’s spent the winter off-season shoveling down junk food, Alcoa swung and missed. Badly.

Already waddling around with debts of more than $10.5 billion, America’s largest aluminum producer reported further loss of half a billion dollars for the quarter (59 cents per share), as sales plunged by 41%. As a sign of how hard the recession has bitten the company, it compared to net income of $303 million (37 cents per share) in Q1 2008. It was the company’s first consecutive quarterly losses since March 1994.

The news wasn’t a surprise. As the recession squashes aluminum

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U.S. markets closed modestly lower Monday paring losses recorded earlier in the day amid banking worries and investor concerns that gloomy earnings and outlook will hurt technology, commodities and industrial shares.  The KBW Banking index slipped 3.8% after a prominent banking analyst advised selling banking stocks.  Calyon Securities analyst Mike Mayo in a report titled "Seven Deadly Sins of Banking" warned bank losses could exceed levels seen during the Great Depression.  Stocks advanced in the late afternoon session paring some losses but the rally was checked after reports emerged that talks for IBM Corp.'s (NYSE: IBM) $7 billion deal to buy Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) had hit a roadblock. Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: JAVA) shares plunged 23%.

Mayo started coverage on several banking stocks with an "underperform" or "sell" rating.  Among securities initiated with a sell rating were: BB&T Corp (NYSE:BBT), Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:FITB), KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY), SunTrust Banks

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As governments around the world fight rising unemployment, falling exports and bank credit crunch, and several central banks are facing liquidity traps, many are turning to restrictions that privilege national producers. These populist measures attempt to minimize growth impact, social unrest and pain from the credit crunch that poses a risk to several ruling governments, especially those facing elections soon. Furthermore, some officials hope that such restrictions will reduce the leakage of the scarce funds used in bank bailouts and fiscal stimulus to other countries.

But as history shows, the impacts of trade protectionism on exports and job creation if any are small in the short-term and instead may lead to global retaliation, and in the long-term result in inefficient allocation of labor and capital and trade distortions, affecting potential

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Autozone, Inc. (

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Autozone, Inc. (

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America may be banged up, but Europe is teetering on the edge of flat-out fiscal disaster… which helps explain the bizarre action in gold and the dollar as of late.

Imagine a postcard-perfect mountain village. A-frame chateaus, old world door crests, cheery gas lamps – the kind of place you might see tucked away in the Pyrenees or the Swiss Alps. As a crowning touch, large flakes of snow are gently falling.

Now take a step back. Instead of an actual village, you are looking at the contents of a snow globe.

The snow globe is sitting on the edge of a large oak table.

Now you see the back of a large, well-manicured hand – perhaps a banker’s hand – accidentally sweep the snow globe over the edge of the table. The snow globe hurtles toward the cold marble floor, where it will shatter into a thousand pieces.

What you have just envisioned

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G-7 kisses up to China…  The dollar swings a mighty hammer…  Eastern European loans weigh on the euro…  Gold kicks tail and takes names later! And Now… Today’s Pfennig! OK… Well, Friday ended on a sour note for the currencies, and while yesterday was a holiday here in the U.S. the currencies continued to sell off, with the dollar swinging a mighty hammer. G-7 said very little about currencies, left yen alone, and praised the Chinese for their continued move toward flexibility of the renminbi…

Now, if you think like me, no wait, most people don’t want that burden! But… We think in similar circles, you probably chuckled a bit when you

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