This a letter sent today to our clients.   It may be useful to you as well.

Clients and Friends,

Last night and this morning, I received several calls and emails asking my opinion about whether the rally on Monday was going to stick and whether a bottom is in.

I didn’t know then and really don’t know now.  Many powerful forces have been applied by US and European governments, which include variously and among other things:

guaranteeing inter-bank loans nationalizing banks massive equity infusions in banks purchase of toxic loans guarantee of certain money market fund accounts increasing limits or removing limits from bank insured deposits temporary unlimited guarantee of business checking acct assets coordinated lowering of overnight interest rates converting key investment banks to commercial banks (more supervision, lower leverage allowed, and access to Fed $) discussion of tax credits restrictions on shorting certain financial stocks FASB seeking to relax mark-to-market rules when SEC declares markets dysfunctional prospective replacement of mark-to-market rules in Europe with ...