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As GM Cruises Toward Government Deadline, U.S. Automakers Must Learn to Deal With a Permanently Smaller Market

Contrarian Profits (May 26th, 2009) Writes:

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) is closing in quickly on its June 1 deadline to finish overhauling its operations, or opt for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Because that deadline is actually one week from yesterday (Monday), analysts and investors will be watching GM closely this week.

No matter which path GM chooses – conventional restructuring or bankruptcy – the U.S. Big Three of GM, Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler LLC will have to adjust to the U.S. auto market’s post-financial-crisis “new reality.” Automakers will sell only 10 million cars and trucks in the U.S. market this year, the worst in at least 30 decades – and roughly 38% less than the 16 million vehicles that were sold in the United States annually in recent years before the financial collapse caused an accompanying collapse in auto sales.

Part of the reason for the

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Waiting For A Market Bounce – Analyst Blog

Charles Rotblut (February 20th, 2009) Writes:

Despite my hope that we would get a bounce today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) plunged below its Nov 21 low of 7,449. The blue-chip average hit 7,249.54 before attempting a rebound this afternoon.

Options expiration is probably not helping matters, but there are other factors.

The biggest problem is the economy. We’re in a recession. Jobs continue to get slashed. The latest housing bailout plan may not even work. Deflation remains a threat.

Banks are in trouble. Throughout the day, there has been increased scuttlebutt about nationalizing Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC) and others. Senator Christopher Dodd commented that banks could be nationalized for “a short time”. Behind the headlines is the fact that an increasing number of smaller banks are failing, while credit card defaults are rising.

Valuations are questionable at best. The S&P 500 (SPX) might seem

Base Metals Mixed

Doug Casey (February 12th, 2009) Writes:

The base metals were mixed on Wednesday. Copper started down in the pre-dawn hours and, except for a brief late morning bump up, declined through the day, finishing just off its intraday lows at $1.5196/lb., down 4¾ cents.

Nickel was sharply lower in the pre-dawn hours, rallied to the late morning, then eased again to close at $4.6705/lb., down more than 18 cents. Zinc also rallied off its pre-dawn lows, but held near break-even, up less than a tenth of a cent at $0.5158/lb. Aluminum had a modestly positive day, adding a third of a cent to $0.6179/lb., while lead’s ups and downs left it dead flat at $0.5172/lb.

Copper was off for the third straight day, as traders reacted to poor usage numbers out of China.

China’s imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products plunged 19% to about 232,700 metric tons in January vs. December, the Beijing-based customs

Stocks To Trade Today – 02/06/09

Daniel Shepard (February 6th, 2009) Writes:

Friday February 6, 2009 Navivest

The stock market is currently in an up-trend, having picked up steam on word that we will be getting details of the bank bailout plan from the Obama administration. Obviously financials are leading the way and traders should look at JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS) and some of the regional names such as Zions Bancorp (ZION).

Get in these names now in early trading and even though they are up, you should be able to catch a 3-5% move today.

The tricky part is determining whether you hold through Monday when the announcement comes from treasury secretary Tim Geithner. Stocks tend to rally in anticipation of good news and sell off on the news. In the case of Monday’s news, there’s even a chance that Wall Street will not be happy with the details and sell off financials, so if

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Inauguration Day 2009

Contrarian Profits (January 20th, 2009) Writes:

Rogers and Roach… Dollar gaps higher!  Ireland’s problems…  Bad data… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Front and Center this morning, I have two quotes from people I truly respect… first from Jimmy Rogers… second from Stephen Roach…

“If I were you, I would be worried about the U.S. dollar,” said Rogers, 66, in a speech at the Asia Financial Forum in Hong Kong today. “The Americans are printing U.S. dollars. The Americans are going to do whatever they can to revive their economy, even if it means destroying the U.S. dollar.”

And at the same Asian Forum… ” Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd., recommended investors buy “anything to do with the Asian consumer, infrastructure, alternative energy and technology.”

Now… these are people that “know better” and not ones that keep telling you that everything will be OK, if we just all come together, right now, over me… No wait, I mean if

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Why We All Need To Keep A Watchful Eye On What Is Happening In Greece

Edward Hugh (December 14th, 2008) Writes:
by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /blockquoteIn view of Greece's EMU membership, the availability of external financing is not a concern, but the correction of cumulating indebtedness could weigh appreciably on growth going forward. While the risk of transmitting vulnerabilities to the euro area is very small reflecting Greece’s small relative size, large persistent current account deficits would increase the vulnerabilities to a reversal in market sentiment, leading to a corrective retrenchment of private sector balance-sheets in the face of rising indebtedness, and a possible appreciable rise in the cost of funding over time. These developments would have significant negative implications for growth.br /a href="http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21937.0"Greece: 2007 Article IV Consultation/a - IMF Staff Report/blockquotepbr /br //ppa href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s1600-h/bond+spreads+2.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5278548924887872770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 320px; HEIGHT: 170px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SUEsR712NQI/AAAAAAAALuU/VGFiqyCyzBw/s320/bond+spreads+2.png" border="0" //abr /The above quited paragraph from the IMF is a very good example of what used to be ...
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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (September 22 – 28, 2008)

Prieur du Plessis (September 27th, 2008) Writes:

As I am travelling in Europe at the moment (see “Another town, another train…”), this week’s edition of “Words from the Wise” does not provide the customary review of the financial markets’ movements and economic statistics. Given time constraints, today I will only share with you a number of video clips in lieu of excerpts from news items and quotes from market commentators. Quite a few of the video items include links to related articles for those who prefer the written word.

Firstly, as we are awaiting word on the bail-out plan, a very topical quote from Jim Welsh (Welsh Money Management): “We will be told that the Federal Reserve and

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