1 word comes to mind of late - complacency. Today's medium sized sell off had me thinking of the last time the market sold off in a meaningful way. The fact I could not remember is a case in point. It looks like we had 1 day back there on April 11th but other than that since the quarter turned on April 1, it's been all good. Despite almost all bad on the economic front. No wonder everyone berates us with "it's all priced in", and "all up from here". If you review this week's postings you see 1 theme - selling and building cash. I'm back to nearly 20% in cash, and about 18% short exposure which is a very hedged exposure. I still am aghast this market does not treat $120+ crude more seriously - as I wrote ...

April 28, 2008

This was a pretty slow day and investors are going to mark time, absent other market moving news, until the Fed makes its next decision. The volume today was ultra-light.

Let’s face it; bulls have seized the tape with “the worst is behind us” line regarding financials and the credit crisis. From the WSJ was this quote attributed to T. Rowe Price portfolio manager Daniel Shackelford, “We established that the Fed was going to backstop the markets, keep things stable and slowly but surely nurse the markets back to health…risk-taking has come back in the market.” So, that’s the bullish spin.

And, things do look better, but hold on a second. Below is a …