2009 could the first global recession since the 1930s, according to a UN report. But John Crooks says forex traders can use the economic slump to make big profits. He picks four currencies that will be “on the chopping block” for 2009.

This from The Sovereign Society:

The U.N. is predicting the first worldwide recession since the 1930s … for 2009. If that wasn’t bad enough, developed nations are supposed to shrink up to 1.5%. “It seems inevitable that the major countries will see significant contraction in the immediate period…even if the bail-out and stimulus package succeed,” according to the report. In other words, the recession may have spared Black Friday 2008, but next year, the worldwide recession will cut into worldwide spending even further. In the currency markets, you can already see that four currencies will suffer next year as the U.N.’s prophecy comes true…

The Four Currencies

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Currencies trade in a tight range…  China…  Commodity prices to blame…  “Safe” Treasuries? And Now… Today’s Pfennig! Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well… I went “shopping” yesterday evening… At least I can say I did my bit to keep the economy afloat! HA! Thanks to all who sent along notes to me yesterday with kind words. I truly appreciate the kind words, you are all too kind! The automakers made their pleas to Congress yesterday, and they claim they are in deep dookie! GM says they need $4 Billion right now! And… The original $25 Billion figure has grown to $35 to $40 Billion…

The currencies were lifeless yesterday, with only

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Global stocks decline as gloomy economic news flow resumes… Euro zone services activity falls to a fresh record low… Central banks expected to cut rates aggressively… MSCI World stock index down 0.4 percent

A tentative rebound in global stocks spluttered on Wednesday while euro zone government bond yields hit a three-year low as gloomy economic news highlighted the case for more aggressive interest rate cuts in Europe this week.

The euro stayed on the backfoot and oil held near a 3-1/2 year low a day before the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Sweden’s Riksbank are all widely expected to cut borrowing costs.

Supporting those expectations, economic reports on Wednesday showed the euro zone’s services economy fell deeper into recession in November than initially thought and inflationary pressures eased.

“This is a horrible survey across the board, showing that the euro zone service sector is being hit ever harder

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The typical Econbrowser reader might not be surprised at the NBER decision -- but some others will. From a May 2008 WSJ article:

"The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession," Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Edward Lazear told a meeting of editors and reporters from the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.

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"I would be very surprised if the NBER, looking back at this period, would date this as a recession," Mr. Lazear said. There are even indications that revised first-quarter estimates would be slightly stronger than 0.6%. "The optimists seem to have been closer to right on that than the pessimists," he said.

Just to reiterate, that quote is from May 2008.

Here's a picture of GDP and gross domestic income (as suggested by Jim in this post, and noted in the BCDC announcement).

Figure 1: Gross domestic product (blue), and ...

Almost everything we use in modern society contains large amounts of raw materials. And they can’t be mined fast enough to keep pace with demand, especially from emerging markets. Lundin Mining Corp. (NYSE:LMC) is a strong Canadian mining company, with no debt and world-class assets. And it is a steal at today’s beaten down prices.

This from Investment U:

Consider that your computer could contain up to 38 separate chemical elements and that all of those elements needed to be mined and refined. Everything from cell phones to housing supplies requires massive amounts of raw materials.

Our modern lifestyle encourages us to buy the latest products, all made with increasing amounts of technology - and more raw materials.

But industrialized nations aren’t the only players clamoring for these commodities. Developing nations around the world are pounding the table for more of everything. They want what the industrialized west has had for

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Last shorter trading week brought nice gains for most of global stock market indices. US major benchmarks closed sharply higher during 3,5 trading days. Dow Jones up 9,73% Nasdaq Composite 10,92% and Samp;P 500 12,03%. There have not been any fundamental improvement but the markets were just deeply oversold and bargain hunters started to add new positions.br /br /Recently I have published ETF performance map on year to date basis. Numbers were oscillating around -50% for a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://stockweb.blogspot.com/2008/10/state-of-market-european-etf.html"European ETF/a and -60% for a style="font-weight: bold;" href="http://stockweb.blogspot.com/2008/10/state-of-market-asian-etfs.html"Asian ETF/a except Japan. I think it will be interesting to see which markets benefit from last week rally the most.br /br /br /a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_28p7XDn4Qb0/STFZU8vo6qI/AAAAAAAABUw/d46RNdGkn44/s1600-h/european+ETF.jpg"img style="margin: 0px auto 10px; display: block; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 380px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_28p7XDn4Qb0/STFZU8vo6qI/AAAAAAAABUw/d46RNdGkn44/s400/european+ETF.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5274094855065758370" border="0" //abr /As seen on picture the leader was iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) with enormous 40% in ...

Zenergy Power Plc (LON:ZEN) could be onto something big in the energy sector, says Tom Bulford. The small cap firm produces High Temperature Semiconductors (HTS) that are more energy efficient than copper. As it moves closer to cracking large markets in the US, Tom says the stock has serious long-term potential. This from Penny Sleuth: Karen Chandler opened her bag and took out a chunky strip of copper and placed it on the table. Next to it she put a slim ribbon of something else I didn’t recognise at all. The second had been made by depositing layers of substances that I had never heard of – such as Lanthanum Zirconate and Yttrium – onto a base of textured nickel tape.

The finished item is a High Temperature Semiconductor (HTS) and is apparently a ceramic rather than a metal. The important thing about it is that it

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Once again, I am flattering an entry with a picture taking here in Switzerland where I am currently entertaining courses at HEC Lausance. As you can see, it is a beautiful place and also, as it were, very interesting with respect to tail fume patterns from the enormous amount of airplanes moving back and forth over le Lac Léman (middle of Europe remember!). Posting is slim I know, but so unfortunately is time; I can assure that it is not out of lack of enthusiasm to write and opinion on current events.

Moving on to the topic du jour it is interesting to observe wow fast things sometimes change. We need not go back more than 5-6 months to observe how hawkish central banks across the economic edifice were busy scrambling to raise rates in order to quell inflationary pressures. Most notably, the

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Currencies continue to rally…  More Stimulus…  Data shows more rot on the vine… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

Another rally day in the currencies yesterday… One that wasn’t as pronounced as Monday’s 3-cent rally… But a rally just the same, and at one point, the euro was trading above 1.30… Hadn’t seen that level in a while, so welcome back to the 1.30 level, Mr. euro…

Someone sent me a note the other day, and said, why don’t you talk about Australia, Canada, and Swiss more? Hmmmm… Maybe they don’t read the Pfennig “every day”… But those currencies are in my notes most days, and if they are not, they are a part of the overall direction in currencies that are being pushed down by the Trading Theme… But in the spirit of the season…

Aussie dollars have rebounded nicely the last three days, but this is really putting a band-aid on a bullet

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Gold sold off gently in thin Far East trading on Monday morning…and the bottom was in a couple of hours before Hong Kong closed. From there, gold rose until about 10:00 a.m. in London, and although it tacked on about another ten bucks during Comex trading in New York, it had given all that back by the Comex close.

As for the silver price, it bottomed at the same time as gold and was off to the races shortly after London opened. The top was was in shortly after 10:30 Eastern time when it appeared that the about-to-become-parabolic rally drew the attention of the boyz. From that point on, the silver price didn’t do too much.

As would be expected, volume in gold on the Comex Friday was pretty heavy; but somewhat lighter yesterday. In silver, volume was heavier yesterday than it was on Friday…which stands to reason when you consider the

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