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Tuesday October 6, 2009

DrStockPick.com Stock Report!

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The first aluminum diesel piston rolled off the line today at Federal-Mogul Corporation’s (Nasdaq: FDML) joint venture with KAMAZ, the leading manufacturer of heavy-duty trucks in Russia. The 50/50 JV, called Federal-Mogul Naberezhnye Chelny, located in Tatarstan, Russia, will produce pistons, piston rings and cylinder liners for KAMAZ’s OE and OES products, and serve the Russian and global automotive and aftermarket industries.

Further addressing consumer expectations for mobile phones that deliver performance equivalent to stand-alone consumer devices,

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Amkor Technology Inc. (AMKR) is one of the largest packaging and test subcontractors. December quarter results were short of consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Forward guidance is for a 30-38% revenue decline in the first quarter.Management attributed the decline to broad-based weakness across all end markets, especially consumer. Management is committed to improving the highly leveraged balance sheet; the high level of debt increases the risk profile, in our opinion.The company's performance has been falling over the last two years. Revenue has declined -2.6% from 2006 to 2008. At the same time, the gross margin declined -154 bps, while the operating margin declined -249 bps. The recession is expected to make matters much worse before they get better, although management's cost-cutting efforts will be a mitigating factor.The December quarter was extremely bad for the company. Although the revenue ...

April 30, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Pacific Crestrsquo;s Mark Bachman and Cowenrsquo;s Rob Stone commented this morning on First Solarrsquo;s (Nasdaq:FSLR) results, each maintaining an OUTPERFORM rating on the stock, with Stone forecasting 30%+ upside potential vs. the market in 12 months and Bachman increasing his price target to $231, 25x his 2010 EPS estimate of $9.24. Financial ResultsFirst Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) reported a 112% Y/Y increase in Q1 revenues to $418.2 million, and earnings of $164.6 million, or $1.99 per share, compared with earnings of $46.6 million, or $0.57 per share for the same period last year. Consensus expectations were for earnings of $1.50 per share. Stonersquo;s Comments middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Higher GM and lower cost per watt and a tax benefit drove Q1 results middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Co-investment in a large German project demonstrate the ability to catalyze market expansion, enhancing scale and capacity expansion middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Raised 2009E revenue to $1.9B on shipments of 943MW, ...

Not Your Father's Semi Industry

In the past 10 years, the fundamental shift in the semiconductor industry from corporate IT to consumer demand is very important to consider. It has created a different playing field. There are more products that use semi components (MP3s, cell phones, autos, "smart" houses). Seasonal demand is now an issue, such as Christmas and the Chinese New Year. Finally, the potential exists for more commoditized products and ASP [average selling price] erosion.

Firms that will out-perform in a slightly negative GDP environment include:

     Firms with the strongest balance sheets, such as Intel Corp. (INTC)     Companies that make specialized semiconductors (i.e. chips used in dentist X rays)     Firms that sell products that are technology-driven rather than capacity-driven     Companies that are gaining market share because of superior technology, like Varian Semi (VSEA)     Firms that sell products associated with regulation (e.g. power conservation), ...

April 24, 2009 ndash; Analyst Notes ndash; Cowenrsquo;s Robert Stone commented on SunPowerrsquo;s (Nasdaq:SPWRA) results for the Q1, noting that the quarter is likely ldquo;the troughrdquo; for the company. He maintains an OUTPERFORM Rating on the stock, seeing a strong second half on identified commercial/utility projects with potential upside in the residential/components business. He sees an upside of 50% vs. the market in 12 months. Financial Results The company reported a 21% Y/Y decline in Q1 revenues to $214 million, with Tom Werner commenting that this was ldquo;the most challenging quarterrdquo; hersquo;s seen since the company went public back in 2005. The companyrsquo;s GM came in at 22.3%$ and a net loss of $4.7 million, or $0.06 per share, compared to net income of $11.9 million for the same period last year. Expectations were for earnings of $0.02 per share. Management forecast revenue in a range of $1.3 billion to $1.7 ...

April 9, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Pacific Crestrsquo;s Mark Bachman issued a note on First Solar (Nasdaq:FSLR) this morning, raising revenue and EPS estimates, as well as his price target from $209 to $227, which is 25x his 2010EPS expectations of $9.09. Bachman maintained his OUTPERFORM rating. Key Takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Updated model to include the Optisolar transaction, which closed on Friday, as well as lower contract ASPs through 2010, and several other factors. He factored in an acceleration in cost-per-watt, driven by the Malaysian operation where the remaining eight production lines are ramping.nbsp; Despite ASP erosion, he expects profitability to improve as manufacturing costs come down; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; ldquo;ASP declines represent an offensive weapon, not a defensive tactic.rdquo; Bachman is forecasting gross margins above 50% throughout 2009; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Increasing FY09/10 revenue estimates to $1.93 billion and $2.5 billion, and 09/10 EPS estimates to $7.89 and $9.09. middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Maintaining OUTPERFORM rating, ...

April 6, 2009 ndash; Analyst Comments ndash; Cowen amp; Companyrsquo;s Rob Stone weighed in on the solar sector industryrsquo;s outlook this morning cutting estimates again across his solar coverage on further erosion in ASPs, noting that Q1 results could put some pressure on the group. As he noted, this shouldnrsquo;t be too much of a surprise to anyone, as prices have been on a steady decline over the past few quarters. Stone accordingly made adjustments on all companies he is following including: Key Takeaways: middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Spot prices on poly have fallen to $80-$100/kg while wafers are about $1.20/watt. Module prices are $2.60 -$2.80, and Stone thinks prices could fall another 5% in Q2. Expect another round of inventory write-downs; middot;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp;nbsp; Climate Bill which could include a national renewable electricity standard of as much as 25% by 2025 could be a catalyst for solar, but it could take a while to ...

div style="text-align: justify;"Barclays is out with am interesting call on span style="font-weight: bold;"Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) /spanraising their tgt to $143 from $113 saying the stock remains one of our top picks given its new product pipeline amp; very strong free cash flow. They believe new products including a new familiy of iPhones in June amp; an ultraportable later this year should boost shares.br /br /They are raising their pro forma estimates for Apple significantly given their view that the company candeliver a robust new product cycle for iPhones in '09 supporting about $10/sh in annualized FCF. Also, iPhone demand has held near-term better than their conservative ests according to checks.br /br /- Barclays believes AAPL is readying a an ultraportable device for later this yr (not included in ests).br /br /- Given higher iPhone estimates, F2Q GAAP EPS is now $1.00 (was $0.98) w/non-GAAP of $1.37 (was $1.18) on 4% ...

Amkor Technology, Inc. (AMKR) is one of the largest packaging and test subcontractors. December quarter results were short of consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Forward guidance is for a 30-38% revenue decline in the 1st quarter. Management attributed the decline to broad-based weakness across all end markets, especially consumer. Management is committed to improving the highly leveraged balance sheet, but the high level of debt increases the risk profile, in our opinion.The company's performance has been falling over the last 2 years. Revenue has declined -2.6% from 2006 to 2008. At the same time, the gross margin declined -154 bps, while the operating margin declined -249 bps. The recession is expected to make matters much worse before they get better, although management's cost-cutting efforts will be a mitigating factor.December was an extremely bad quarter for the company. Although the revenue ...

Phase Forward, Inc.: Keeping it a BuyWe had earlier upgraded our recommendation of Phase Forward, Inc. (PFWD) to a Buy on Nov. 26, 2008, anticipating strong Q4 results and contract extensions with top pharma companies. Q4 EPS came in a penny better than our $0.12 estimate on a proforma basis, and the company indicated that 4 of the top 10 pharmaceutical companies signed multi-year, multi-million dollar extensions and expansions during the quarter. (Phase Forward mainly services the pharmaceutical industry and provides software and services to assist clients in improving the efficiency of their clinical trials.)Further, we continue to expect certain large ASP customers to make a transition to enterprise license from ASP this year, similar to what Novo Nordisk (NVO) did in the last quarter. Based on the historical pattern of revenue recognized from the ending backlog and from new bookings, at the ...