Confidence levels among the top end of Japanese business is at a four year low as companies forecast lower earnings for the first time in seven years. At the same time big companies say they will lift capital expenditure 2.4% over the coming financial year (which ends March 31, 2009 in Japan), compared to a forecast three months ago of a decline. But that was about the only crumb of comfort from the latest quarterly Tankan survey of manufacturer sentiment from the Bank of Japan yesterday. As with industrial production figures, the Tankan survey is considered to be perhaps the best guide to Japanese business confidence and conditions because of the way manufacturing still dominates the economy, unlike the US and Europe where services are now the main driving sector. That’s why the 5 points slide in sentiment in June from 11 in March, (the third quarterly decline in a ...

Nearly every natural resource under the sun is about to enter the second, most powerful phase of their bull markets, eventually reaching dizzying heights that make today’s record prices seem tame by comparison.

Almost everyone would scoff if I gave you my peak projections for copper, uranium, corn, wheat, and each of the other commodities I follow. They’d probably lock me up in Bellevue!

But then again, that’s what the so-called experts said of me six years ago, when I proclaimed gold would surpass $1,000 an ounce and oil would easily climb to over $100 a barrel.

Maybe now they’re listening!

Bottom line: As for the natural resource bull markets, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!”

All told, I see five persistent, strengthening forces that explain …

Everybody knows there is some kind of food crisis. Grocery prices are painful. Wal-Mart has rationed rice purchases. Mexico has had tortilla riots due to corn prices. Rice riots have occurred Asia. China introduced laws prohibiting conversion of human food crops to fuel.

However, who would have predicted a 5 standard deviation price move for an index of 60 foods, or a 16 standard deviation move in rice prices. No, that is not a typo. Bloomberg today reported a UN Food Crisis study and related price charts revealing this food Black Swan.

At the core of the definition of Black Swan is an unpredictable and unexpected price move that is way off the chart in terms of standard deviations from the mean.

Since 3 standard deviations theoretically encompasses 99.7% of all observations, 5 to 16 standard deviations is a shocker.

We’ll have to rely on businesses and

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