In a July 8 feature, Boone Pickens told CNBC he’s sticking with $150 oil for 2008. But where did Lehman Bros. see oil?

Also on Tuesday, JP Morgan (JPM - Annual Report) said U.S. crude futures may hit $150 later this month, while Lehman Brothers (LEH) raised its oil price forecast to an average $127 a barrel for 2008 from its previous assumption of $105.

On December 4 2007 I wrote a piece called Roll with Landstar, Short CHRW, saying:

“Based solely on sales or operating margins, Landstar (LSTR - Annual Report) is about 35% the size of CH Robinson (CHRW - Annual Report). If it had the same relative valuation, it would trade at $52 per share.

CH Robinson’s forward price-to-earnings multiple is 24.6, compared with 19.3 for Landstar. At 24.6 times estimated 2008 earnings, Landstar would be trading north of $54. Assigning CHRW’s 1.67 PEG ratio (P/E ratio related to its growth rate) to Landstar would give it a $49 value.

CH Robinson has a lofty 16.1 times EV/EBITDA ratio. If Landstar got that multiple, its stock would be $60.”

The day I wrote the article, Landstar closed at $43.02 and CH Robinson was $53.03. Today, they are in a dead heat price-wise, with LSTR at $55.59 and CH Robinson at

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In “Surging Crude Means Picking Shrewd” why did Christopher Zook praise Applied Materials?

“The best idea right now would be Applied Materials (AMAT - Annual Report),” he said.  “We believe there’s a tremendous growth opportunity there in the solar business, as well as the economy begins to recover in 2009 and 2010, they’re going to get strength in their core businesses as well.”

Eventually the semiconductor firms will start ordering again. Meanwhile, solar is too small to register much, in my opinion.

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

Freedom of the press doesn't exist in China. In fact, the Chinese government directly controls it by owning the largest newspapers and the largest TV stations. The point of that is that the Chinese government often skews the news to look good. That is especially true of pollution. Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection issued its annual report showed that water pollution is getting slightly worse while air pollution is getting slightly better. I don't buy either claim. There continues to be a mountain of money to be made by investing in companies that can help China clean up its severe pollution.

CNBC Stock Blog: Thomas Winmill likes miner Freeport McMoRan for a “special reason.” What special reason?

One special reason Winmill likes Freeport McMoRan is its involvement in the production of molybdenum.

“It doesn’t trade in the futures market,” he pointed out.  “Molybdenum is used primarily for pipe, for drilling pipe for oil exploration, any kind of pipeline…it’s a very strong market, and a small market.”

In the models I use Freeport McMoRan (FCX -

On Friday, Rebecca Darst said options traders are looking at chips. What reason(s) did she cite?

Here’s the video.  It seems to me like she mentions Infineon’s (IFX) guidance cut, a recent Barron’s article and TI’s (TXN - Annual Report) lukewarm share price. In other words, all of the above.

Infineon doesn’t show up on my screens and Texas Instruments ranks pretty neutrally. I personally think the semiconductor industry should do well, and own the Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) and Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM.PK) - though the latter position is a little stub spun out from the SMH when the company was delisted.

 

 

 

Disclosure: William Trent has a long position in SMH.

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On Monday, April 28, James Altucher of Formula Capital recommended which food-inflation trade to CNBC viewers?

Picks included Sysco (SYY) and Sadia (SDA) while pans included General Mills (GIS), McDonald’s (MCD - Annual Report) and Kellogg (K).