First, a historical note…US equities have just come off their best July since 1989. Overall, the market is up over 8% for the year. But if we look backward (after all, hindsight is 20/20), March 1989 also saw a huge run up. It was followed by an even stronger rally in July, during which volume dried up. It appears the same is happening now. What came next in 1989 was a big sell-off in September, followed by an even greater one in October.

Don’t look now, but history tends to repeat itself.

Also, consider the fundamental picture. We have rallied 48% from the March lows on the back of what? Good earnings? Good employment figures? Good spending figures? Expanding GDP? No.

We have rallied based on one of the largest and most concerted propaganda campaigns ever waged, supported by government stimulus. But no government can stimulate forever. The bottom line is this, if

...

* Reports suggest Xstrata and Anglo American (NASDAQ:AAUK) are engaged in merger talks in a deal which could total about $68 billion and result in the combined firm becoming the world's number-three miner behind BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP) and Vale (NASDAQ:VALE)

* Reuters reported 100,000 of Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 3Gs were sold via preorders, explaining away some of the launch's diminished excitement level. Some news reports said Steve Jobs underwent a liver transplant two months ago in Tennessee, and is still due back at month's end

* Walgreen (NYSE:WAG) is expected to report fiscal third-quarter earnings of 56 cents a share

* UBS (NYSE:UBS) upgraded Vulcan Materials (NYSE:VMC) to "buy," based upon housing and infrastructure recovery

* JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) upgraded Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN) to "overweight" from "neutral"

* According to a Wall Street Journal report, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) may stop conducting businesses with some retailers in states, which would force sales tax payments on online transactions

...

The base metals were all splashed with red on Friday. Copper cratered during the pre-dawn hours, and was still at its lows after the noon hour, but it staged a late rally that took it back to finish at $1.4519/lb., down only 2 cents.

Nickel was down all day long, barely coming off its intraday low to close at $4.2502/lb., down more than 17 cents. Zinc fell in the pre-dawn hours, rallied into the afternoon, but then lost it all and ended at its intraday low of $0.4785/lb., down a penny and a half. Aluminum was also a daylong loser, giving up a penny and a third, to $0.5736/lb., while lead plummeted to $0.4553/lb., down 2½ cents.

Copper posted another weekly decline, as skyrocketing stockpiles served as a stark indicator of global economic weakness.

Inventories monitored by the LME surged 17,350 metric tons yesterday, to 545,600 tons, a more than 5-year high.

The build

...

Copper prices have fallen off a cliff since June, and not even China’s massive stimulus has bucked the trend. But Sara Nunnally says one Chilean mining firm is still planning a major expansion in production over the coming years. This could mean big profits for the company’s three major financial backers (AAUK, XTA, MITSY)… provided they survive the current commodity slump.

This from Taipan Daily’s Emerging Markets blog:

Right now, copper spot prices are an anemic $1.65 per pound. That’s an amazing drop from above $4 back in June.

And yet, one Chilean copper mine is actually expanding.

The mine is called Dona Ines de Collahuasi. It’s Chile’s third largest copper mine and is located in an historical copper mining area. Back in 1880, a large, high-grade copper and silver vein was found. It’s one of the world’s largest copper resources.

Right now, the mine produces roughly 440,000 tons of copper a

...

Goldman Sachs made the following addtions/subtractions to its conviction buy list, which can be tracked at:

http://trackthepros.com/stocks/category/229

Goldman Sachs added Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) to its Conviction Buy List.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of health and hygiene products worldwide.

Goldman Sachs downgrades Anglo American (Nasdaq: AAUK) from Buy to Neutral and removes the stock from their Conviction Buy List.

Goldman Sachs removed Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) from its Conviction Buy List.

Herbalife, Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy and fitness, and personal care products worldwide.

      

Goldman Sachs made the following addtions/subtractions to its conviction buy list, which can be tracked at:

http://trackthepros.com/stocks/category/229

Goldman Sachs added Kimberly-Clark Corporation (NYSE: KMB) to its Conviction Buy List.

Kimberly-Clark Corporation engages in the manufacture and marketing of health and hygiene products worldwide.

Goldman Sachs downgrades Anglo American (Nasdaq: AAUK) from Buy to Neutral and removes the stock from their Conviction Buy List.

Goldman Sachs removed Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE: HLF) from its Conviction Buy List.

Herbalife, Ltd., a network marketing company, sells weight management, nutritional supplement, energy and fitness, and personal care products worldwide.

      

NEW YORK - The Dow and S&P 500 were little changed on Monday on the final trading day of the second quarter as record oil boosted energy shares, offsetting weak financial stocks amid nagging concerns of further credit losses. The Nasdaq ended the session lower, hurt by a drop in the shares of Yahoo as it battles with shareholders after takeover talks with Microsoft fell apart. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 3.50 points, or 0.03 per cent, to 11,350.01. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 1.62 points, or 0.13 per cent, at 1,280.00. The Nasdaq composite index was down 22.65 points, or 0.98 per cent, at 2,292.98. LONDON - UK stocks ended 1.74 per cent higher, with oil stocks gaining on a record high crude price and miners, led by Anglo American, advancing on firmer metals. The FTSE 100 index closed 96 points higher at 5,625.9. FRANKFURT - The DAX index ended at ...