by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /br /According to preliminary estimates from the Spanish National Statistics Office published today, GDP contracted by 1.8% in the first three months of 2009 when compared with the last quarter on 2008. This follows a 1.0% drop in Q4 2008. This is equivalent to a 7.2% annualised rate of contraction, which is, of course, sharp.br /br /a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgwM_W4NxhI/AAAAAAAAN5c/P1h2RPTzmDY/s1600-h/spain+gdp+one.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5335653941139850770" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 209px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SgwM_W4NxhI/AAAAAAAAN5c/P1h2RPTzmDY/s400/spain+gdp+one.png" border="0" //abr /br /Over the first quarter of 2008 (that is year on year) GDP decreased by 2.9%, the sharpest decline recorded in almost 40 years. In fact you would need to go back to 1945 to find a year in which the Spanish economy contracted as strongly as it is likely to this year.br /br /The contraction was mainly caused by a very large slump in private ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /The number of unemployed in Spain was up again in March - by "only" 123,543. I say "only" since it is evidently less than the 154,508 increase registered in February, or the 198,538 registered in January. And indeed many of the newspaper stories have been full of arguments from Employment Minister Maravillas Rojo (would that she could work "Maravillas") about how Spain registered the weakest unemployment gain in six months in March (when compared to the previous month). However, as those who look into the economic analysis side of this a bit more (and who don't believe in either wonders or "miracles) point out, taking seasonal factors into account the monthly 3.55% rise in March shows a more or less steady trend, and no special sign of improvement, despite the large stimulus programme. Last March, for example, unemployment strongfell by 0.62%./strongbr /br /So when ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelona br /br /Data from the JPMorgan March Global PMI provide solid evidence that the speed of contraction in global manufacturing is lessening at the present time. Indexes tracking trends in output and new orders generally continued to rise across the globe, and are in general now up significantly from the series lows registered at the end of 2008. However, both the output and the new orders indexes remained at very low levels, all still signalling continuing contraction and well below those consistent with anything resembling a recovery in either component.br /br /The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI – which provides a single figure snapshot of operating conditions across the planet – posted 37.2 in March. Although substantially below the no-change mark of 50.0, the PMI was up for the third month in row and at its highest level since last October. The vast majority of the national ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Spanish unemployment shot up again in February to 3.48 million in February, whilst consumer confidence took another knock amidst fears Spain's jobless would now hit 4 million as early this summer, and maybe 4.5 million, or nearly 20% of the workforce. Right, this the latest in my monthly reports on Spain, but before I go further, a quick joke. How do you know when there is an economic crisis in a country? When everyone around you in the metro is busy reading the economics page in the newspaper.br /br /br /br /The latest unemployment data released yestreday (Tuesday) show that the number of unemployment benefit claimants rose by 154,058 in February, down from last months increase of 198,838, but still nearly four times the 40,000 increase in Germany which has almost twice the population, and where the economy is apparently contracting at an even more ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /The performance of the worldwide manufacturing sector remained very weak in February. Although the JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose further from December's record low, at 35.8 it was still well below the critical no-change mark of 50.0. Rates of decline eased for production and new orders, but accelerated to reach a new survey record for employment.br /blockquote"The PMI edged higher for a second successive month in February. The data are still pointing to marked declines in output and new orders, but the gains in these indexes indicate that the rate of contraction has begun to ease in global industry. Production cuts are likely to remain deep near-term while companies reduce inventory." David Hensley, Director of Global Economics Coordination at JPMorgan/blockquotebr /br /a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s1600-h/global+pmi.png"img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5308651429277926002" style="DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 228px; TEXT-ALIGN: center" alt="" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SaweWTZ7AnI/AAAAAAAAM4E/mTNmx1ft-QM/s400/global+pmi.png" border="0" //abr /br /Employment declined ...

by Edward Hugh: Barcelonabr /br /Spain’s unemployment, already the highest in the European Union, shot up again in January, rising by the most in at least 13 years, marking the 10th consecutive monthly increase as Spain’s recession continues to deepen.br /br /br /pa href=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYgPhhx8SqI/AAAAAAAAMi8/uWyGkQMQKrA/s1600-h/spain+number+unem.png”img id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298502030279330466″ style=”DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 219px; TEXT-ALIGN: center” alt=”" src=”http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYgPhhx8SqI/AAAAAAAAMi8/uWyGkQMQKrA/s400/spain+number+unem.png” border=”0″ //abr /br /The number of people registering as unemployed was up by 6.4 percent, or 198,838, from December, and the total reached 3.33 million, according to the latest INEM data release. That was the biggest month on month jump since at least 1996. From January 2008, the number of claimants jumped 47.12 per cent (just marginally above last months year-on-year increase of 46.93 per cent) or by more than a million.br /br /a href=”http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_ngczZkrw340/SYgNgxNeIwI/AAAAAAAAMi0/TkGNSgtBlDQ/s1600-h/spain+unem+yoy.png”img id=”BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5298499818218201858″ style=”DISPLAY: block; MARGIN: 0px auto 10px; WIDTH: 400px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 220px; TEXT-ALIGN: …