Thursday November 13, 2008 Navivest

After three consecutive down sessions, stocks might be looking to rebound today. Assuming that the lowered Q4 guidance announcement from Intel yesterday or some other bad news does not overwhelm the market, we could get a rally that feeds itself.

If stocks start moving to the upside, then investors and traders who are sitting on the sidelines might get in, which could create a buying frenzy.

Word of caution, watch the markets carefully and make sure that we do have a positive day ahead of us. Obviously if we are in store for a bullish day, you do not want to wait until the markets have rallied before getting in, but we don’t want to get caught in a bearish trap.

Wait for the first 15 to 30 minutes of trading and if stocks are up, we have decent buying volume and we have a bullish advance

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Tudor Hedge FundTudor Hedge Fund 13F Holdings AnalysisThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Next up in the macro hedge fund tracking series we have Tudor Investment Corp, the brainchild of Paul Tudor Jones. Taken from Wikipedia, the bio of PTJ is as follows: "In 1980 he founded Tudor Investment Corporation which is today a leading asset management firm headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut. The Tudor Group, which consists of Tudor Investment Corporation and its affiliates, is involved in active trading, investing and research in the global equity, venture capital, debt, currency and commodity markets. One of Jones' earliest and major successes was predicting Black Monday in 1987, tripling his money during the event due to large short positions. Jones uses a global macro ...

BP Capital ManagementBP Capital Management | Boon Pickens HoldingsThis post is being written as part of HedgeFundBlogger.com's Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.With all the commotion surrounding energy these days, it never hurts to track an energy focused hedge fund ran by none other than Boone Pickens. If you are unfamiliar with Pickens, he is an energy maverick and his fund returned 300% in 2005. He is a big advocate of Peak Oil Theory and runs an energy-centric hedge fund based in Dallas, Texas. Although he typically holds numerous positions in oil, he is also big on alternative energy (except ethanol) and has numerous holdings there as well. He most recently advocated a large natural gas position and has additionally made a big bet on ...

Blue Ridge CapitalBlue Ridge Capital | John A. Griffin Holdings AnalysisThis post is being written as part of my Investment Securities Tool which analyzes the holdings of hedge fund managers.Blue Ridge Capital is ran by John A. Griffin. Griffin is similar to Steve Mandel at Lone Pine Capital and Lee Ainslie at Maverick Capital in that they all are 'Tiger Cubs' (a.k.a. pupils of Julian Robertson while at Tiger Management). Griffin though, is more well known because he was Julian Robertson's right hand man. So, needless to say, the dude knows his stuff. Blue Ridge seeks absolute returns by investing in companies who dominate their industries and shorting the companies who have fundamental problems. And, right off the bat that presents us with a bit ...

The commodity correction continues. And it's getting more painful by the minute as big trading houses like Lehman and Merrill Lynch go belly up or are forced into mergers. I think we're seeing a margin call on a global scale. The good news is it should bring incredible opportunities for long-term investors. The bad news is we could see a lot more pain before this is over. A "margin call" is when an investment, bought with borrowed money, decreases in value past a certain point, and an investor either has to put up more money or sell the investment. And we're seeing margin calls as Lehman and others liquidate their trading books. What's more, we're seeing margin calls in oil. Speculators pushing prices down Now, here's where I eat ...

Stocks finished mixed during a rough session that saw further declines in commodities and commodities stocks. The Dow managed to finish with a gain of 15.96 points, or 0.14%, to 11532. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.51 points, or 0.66%, to 2333. The S&P 500 also declined 2.59 points, or 0.20%, to 1274.

Once again, falling crude prices and a strengthening dollar did little to comfort investors after the auto companies reported sales that slid more than analyst’s estimates and the Fed Beige Book showed increasing inflationary pressures.

General Motors (GM) saw car sales fall 20% in August year-over-year. For Ford ( F), it was even worse, falling 27%. But even the mighty Toyota (TM) wasn't spared, as it saw sales fall 9.4%. As expected truck sales were awful which hurt Ford, the maker of the popular F-Series truck, the hardest.

The Fed Beige Book painted

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Stocks finished mixed during a rough session that saw further declines in commodities and commodities stocks. The Dow managed to finish with a gain of 15.96 points, or 0.14%, to 11532. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 15.51 points, or 0.66%, to 2333. The S&P 500 also declined 2.59 points, or 0.20%, to 1274.

Once again, falling crude prices and a strengthening dollar did little to comfort investors after the auto companies reported sales that slid more than analyst’s estimates and the Fed Beige Book showed increasing inflationary pressures.

General Motors (GM) saw car sales fall 20% in August year-over-year. For Ford ( F), it was even worse, falling 27%. But even the mighty Toyota (TM) wasn't spared, as it saw sales fall 9.4%. As expected truck sales were awful which hurt Ford, the maker of the popular F-Series truck, the hardest.

The Fed Beige Book painted

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At 10:35 am today (08/20/08), we will be getting weekly Crude Inventories report from the Energy Department. If we get a reading that shows gasoline stocks dropped more than is being forecasted, a rise in crude oil inventories is expected, we will see a continued rebound in the price of oil, which will send oil related stocks higher.

During regular trading on Tuesday, the price of oil for September delivery gained $1.66 to close at $114.53 a barrel. Crude prices did hit an intraday low of $111.64 a barrel after it was determined that tropical storm Fay won’t have any impact on oil production in the Gulf region. The intraday high was $116.65 a barrel.

We’ve been advocating on this blog for the past couple weeks now, that oil prices can’t keep going down in a straight line and that we were due for a near-term bounce. Of course, after we

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There’s nothing slated on the economic calendar for today that will move stocks and with the earnings season winding down, the only two noteworthy companies that are reporting earnings, are Lowes (LOW) and Trina Solar (TSL). So the markets will have to look for other drivers.

We expect oil to be a major factor and we are looking for some near term bounce in the price of crude oil, which may results in stocks trading down. Even if oil does end up dramatically lower in the next three to six months, the fact of the matter is, it won’t go down in a straight line. So look for that bounce and look for oil related stocks to move up nicely in the short term, on an up move in crude oil prices.

Some of the oil related stocks that we like based on a very near term bounce in oil prices

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Teton Energy Corporation is a company focusing on the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and natural gas in North America. Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the company’s goals are to expand its natural gas and oil reserves, production, and revenues. They seek to do this via the acquisition and development of high-repeatability oil and gas acreage. They also desire to acquire operated properties, to control capital spending, and to pursue strategic acquisitions that expand or complement their existing operations.

Teton Energy Corporation trades on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX). They have significant operations in the Rocky Mountain area of the United States. The company has leasehold interests in the Eastern Denver-Julesburg Basin in Nebraska, the Piceance Basin in Western Colorado, the Williston Basin in North Dakota and the Big Horn Basin in Wyoming.

The Eastern Denver Julesburg Basin is currently non-operated and comprises 266,000 gross acres. The company has a

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