Chicago, IL - February 16, 2009 - Zacks.com releases the list of companies likely to issue earnings surprises. This week's list includes Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), Tesoro Corporation (TSO), Apache Corporation (APA) and Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC). To see more earnings analysis, visit http://at.zacks.com/?id=3207.

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The Week's Events

Earnings season will shift to the retailers with Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT) releasing results on Tuesday morning. Nearly 1 out of every 10 reports will come from the retail sector.

We have confirmed earnings announcements from 277 companies, including 30 S&P 500 members. WMT and Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) will represent the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI).

Minutes from the January Fed meeting will be published on Wednesday afternoon.

• Tuesday: Empire State Manufacturing Index
• Wednesday: January housing starts and building permits, January Fed meeting minutes, January industrial capacity and utilization, January import and export prices, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: January Producer Price Index, January Leading Indicators, February Phili Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: January Consumer Price Index

Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke will speak about the housing markets on Monday morning, at an American Bankers Association conference. Chairman Ben Bernanke will give a presentation about the Fed's lending programs at a National Press Club luncheon on Wednesday.

February stock options will expire on Friday.

The U.S. financial markets will be closed on Monday, in observance of President's Day.

Even though it is a holiday-shortened week, there will be a lot of data for traders to look at. Furthermore, Washington will play a role with the stimulus bill likely to be signed and discussions about new bank and housing rescue packages.

In addition to week's news, traders will be watching support levels for the Dow and the S&P 500 (SPX). Should a downward breakout occur, a steep drop could occur.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) has a long history of beating expectations. The most accurate estimate of 94 cents is signaling that another positive surprise could be forthcoming. (The consensus earnings estimate is unchanged at 93 cents per share.) Hewlett-Packard is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Feb 18, after the close of trading.

Last month, Tesoro Corporation (TSO) said that fourth-quarter profits should be in a range of 89 cents to $1.04 per share, exclusive of one-time adjustments. Most of the covering brokerage analysts raised their forecasts in response, doubling the consensus earnings estimate to 92 cents per share. The refining company topped expectations last quarter by 8 cents with profits of $1.63 per share. Tesoro is scheduled to report on Thursday, Feb 19, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

More than half of the covering brokerage analysts have lowered their quarterly forecasts on Apache Corporation (APA) over the past 30 days. The negative revisions resulted in a 22-cent drop in the consensus earnings estimate, sending it down to $1.26 per share. The exploration and production company missed expectations last quarter by 79 cents. Apache is scheduled to report on Thursday, Feb 19, before the start of trading.

Nearly all of the covering brokerage analysts have cut their forecasts on Cimarex Energy Co. (XEC) in recent weeks. As a result, the consensus earnings estimate has fallen by 28 cents to 48 cents per share. The exploration and production company's third quarter results were 13 cents below expectations. Cimarex Energy is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Feb 18, before the start of trading.

Charles Rotblut, CFA is the senior market analyst for Zacks.com.

Want to turn earnings surprises into quick profits? Learn how by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=3206.

About the Zacks Rank

Since 1988, the Zacks Rank has proven that "Earnings estimate revisions are the most powerful force impacting stock prices." Since inception in 1988, #1 Rank Stocks have generated an average annual return of +28%. During the 2000-2002 bear market, Zacks #1 Rank stocks gained +43.8%, while the S&P 500 tumbled -37.6%. Also note that the Zacks Rank system has just as many Strong Sell recommendations (Rank #5) as Strong Buy recommendations (Rank #1). Since 1988, Zacks Rank #5 stocks have underperformed the S&P 500 by 82% annually (+2% versus +10%). Thus, the Zacks Rank system allows investors to truly manage portfolio trading effectively.

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Zacks Investment Research is under common control with affiliated entities (including a broker-dealer and an investment adviser), which may engage in transactions involving the foregoing securities for the clients of such affiliates. Visit http://www.zacks.com/performance for information about the performance numbers displayed in this press release. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors should always research companies and securities before making any investments. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Contact: Charles Rotblut, CFA
Company: Zacks.com
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Email: pr@zacks.com
Visit: www.Zacks.com

As part of the just-passed U.S. bailout bill, the government has reiterated the Securities and Exchange Commission’s authority to relax the mark-to-market standards. If the SEC actually follows through on that directive, many professional investors worry that we won’t catch on to the next leg of the ongoing credit crisis until it’s way too late.

While politicians point to mark-to-market rules as the cause of the billions in write-downs and losses suffered by financial firms in recent quarters, in fact, it was mark-to-market accounting that first exposed the underlying problems in the complex markets for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and credit-default swaps (CDS).

“Mark-to-market is reality-based accounting,” said Money Morning Contributing Editor Shah Gilani in a phone interview yesterday (Tuesday). “Anything else requires a looking glass and a ticket to Wonderland.”

“To me, mark-to-market accounting is the clarion sound of beagles barking, letting transparency hunters know down which dark hole the fox is hiding,” said Gilani, a former hedge-fund manager who recently penned a five-part investigative series on the U.S. credit crisis – including an alternate bailout plan that he says would’ve cost taxpayers very little.

Without the early warnings raised by mark-to-market accounting standards, the problems in the CDS market could have gone unnoticed for much longer, leaving no time to hedge or prepare for the ultimate carnage to the financial sector.

“In the past couple of weeks, fair-value accounting has been under attack,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) analyst Dane Mott wrote in a recent report, Bloomberg News reported. “Blaming fair-value accounting for the credit crisis is a lot like going to a doctor for a diagnosis and then blaming him for telling you that you are sick.”

Prior to the current credit mess, mortgage-backed securities were priced according to Markit’s ABX Index, which used the average weight of four series in the index to track the price of housing derivatives. But once the subprime market collapsed, the ABX Index plunged - and has yet to recover.

Mark-to-market accounting standards kicked off a round of write-downs at global financial firms that highlighted the overexposure of many to these risky securities. Without such standards, investors would have been unaware of the coming credit crunch.

The Rise of Fair Value

Mark-to-market accounting, or fair-value accounting as it is sometimes called, arose partly in response to the U.S. Savings & Loan Crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Financial institutions had inflated the value of assets on their books, which ultimately led to their financial collapse.

In order to bring more order and transparency to financial firm balance sheets, there was a shift from valuing balance-sheet assets at their purchase price to holding assets at fair market value – or the price the assets would fetch out in the marketplace if they were sold.

In mid-November, with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis already taking its toll on global financial firms, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) released Statement No. 157, entitled “Fair Value Measurements.”

Due to the timing of its issuance, FASB 157 has been pointed to by many as a cause for the financial crisis currently gripping the United States and other markets abroad. But it is important to note that FASB 157 only clarified the fair-value accounting practices that had already been in place for decades – with perhaps one noted exception.

"FASB 157 is not the primary cause of this crisis - greed and poor judgment are," Paul Shifrin, a principal at SC&H Group LLC, a Maryland CPA and management-consulting firm, said in an interview with Money Morning.

What FASB 157 did introduce was an asset hierarchy based on the market available for the assets. Assets are assigned to one of three categories based upon how liquid the assets actually are and, in turn, how easy they are to value, or price:

• Level 1 assets are fully liquid, and easy to price.
• Level 2 assets can be priced with the benefit of "comparable assets."
• And Level 3 assets are completely illiquid and nearly impossible to price.

A Growing Crisis

As the market for MBS and collateralized-debt obligations (CDO) dried up, financial firms were caught holding billions in securities for which there was no longer a market. That led to a steep decline in prices and huge write-downs, which translated into escalating quarterly losses. These complex securities, which had been “Level 1” assets, were quickly becoming “Level 3” assets.

But rather than place the blame on the over-leveraging or the risky securities in question, some politicians and banking lobbyists blamed mark-to-market accounting for the resulting huge losses at global financial firms.

“Onerous mark-to-market rules for certain financial assets that have no market value have worsened the credit crisis, and changing them has been a priority for House Republicans,” U.S. Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio recently told The Wall Street Journal reported.

Congress and such financial-firm lobbying groups such as the American Bankers Association have called for a relaxing of the mark-to-market rules. But doing so would represent a grave error, says Money Morning’s Gilani.

“Nobody is going to trust anybody,” says Gilani. “That’s a real problem if you do away with mark-to-market accounting.”

And that’s an even bigger problem in a market that is already seized up with a crisis of confidence.

The main argument against fair-value accounting is that in a “disorderly market” such as the one we have now due to the ongoing credit crunch, mark-to-market doesn’t take into account the actual cash flow of CDO securities or if the owner plans to hold those securities until maturity. In other words, the security could be worth more than the current sale price if it is held and not sold.

"It’s a knee-jerk reaction from politicians and the banks are trying to find a scapegoat to blame for their own errors in judgment," said SC&H Group’s Shifrin.

If mark-to-market rules are relaxed or eliminated, financial firms will be able to hide future errors in judgment from investors, allowing corporate executives to falsely protect their companies’ share prices, and to protect their own salaries and bonuses.

“To suggest you don’t track and report fair values means you end up in a world where management still knows the real prices, as do market counterparties, but not the investors,” Sam DiPiazza, chief executive officer of the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers, told The Financial Times.