The report below comes courtesy of Nouriel Roubini’s team of analysts at RGE, taking a look at some recent monetary policy trends in advanced economies. This content is excerpted from a longer piece, “Global Monetary Policy Review,” which includes in-depth analysis of when the world’s emerging markets might shift interest rate strategy. However, the longer piece is available only on a subscription basis.

Last week was a busy one for the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). Policymaking is tricky when different asset classes are sending very different signals about the economy. However, those different signals are themselves a byproduct of policy. In the US, bond markets are discounting a sluggish U-shaped recovery or even a double-dip recession, while risky markets are signaling a strong V-shaped recovery ahead. Which is right? While RGE leans towards the

The longer the rally persists, the more dangerous it becomes.

The S&P 500 is up almost 60% since March. The Dow just had its best quarter since ’98.

Yesterday, the Dow slipped 29 points. Is the rally finally rolling over? Or is this a genuine bull market, just taking a pause?

If it is a real bull market it’s a funny-looking bull – one that is missing parts!

For example, corporate earnings are missing. P/E ratios are rising far above the corporate earnings that support them. This puts the market 35% overvalued on a cyclically-adjusted P/E basis, says Smithers & Co.

And if you look at it in terms of its “q” ratio – a comparison of capitalisation and replacement costs – the S&P is even more overvalued. As for emerging markets, “they’re off the charts,” says the Financial Times.

Another missing part is the consumer. This from David Rosenberg:

“ Consumer confidence not only

The United Kingdom’s mounting pile of government IOUs toppled it from the list of countries holding the highest-rated credit today (Thursday), which resulted in Standard & Poor’s lowering its outlook on the United Kingdom’s debt to “negative” from “stable.”

The downgrade has both financial and political ramifications.  It is sure to increase the country’s cost of borrowing and may even boost the out-of-favor Conservative Party to victory in the next election, which may come as early as next year.

Even though the agency reaffirmed its ‘AAA’ long-term and ‘A-1+’ short-term credit ratings for the United Kingdom, the downgrade may be cause for alarm among its debt holders and citizens.

“We have revised the outlook on the U.K. to negative due to our view that, even assuming additional fiscal tightening, the net general government debt burden could approach 100% of GDP and remain near

For weeks now the liberal world media dutifully has been repeating dire threats against so-called “tax havens” from the big spending, high taxing, anti-tax competition likes of Germany’s Merkel and France’s Sarkosy.

Even President Obama allowed his less than impressive Secretary of the Treasury to make some noise against tax havens.

The orchestrated battle of words hurled at offshore financial centers got so heated that British PM Gordon Brown felt obliged to demand for “the end of tax havens.”

This belated anti-tax haven baloney comes from Her Majesty’s first minister whose government is in charge (and has been for a decade) of the United Kingdom’s many tax havens in its overseas territories (Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, the Turks & Caicos) and its Crown Dependencies (the Channel Islands of Jersey and Guernsey and the Isle of Man), plus Gibraltar.

Does the Rt. Hon. Gordon believe that the

Remember our dictum: the force of a correction is equal and opposite to the deception that preceded it.

As we looked out over the absurd hallucinations, delusions and lies of the Bubble Years – oh, those happy days! – we warned that the coming correction “would be a doozy.”

And a doozy it is.

‘Doozy’ is a technical term we feral economists use. “Depression” is what most people call it.

“Slump worst for 50 years,” is the big headline in the Financial Times over the weekend.

“Data reveal recession worst than feared.”

And the full weight of it has yet to fall upon the economy. A correction takes times…especially when it is not merely a cyclical recession, but a structural depression. The whole structure of the world’s economy is being reshaped. The banking system is insolvent. Thousands of businesses are broke. Millions of households are upside down financially. Joblessness is rising into the tens of

As expected, the Thursday morning rally at the Sydney open got snuffed out in short order. Gold remained flat in Hong Kong until 4:00 p.m. in their afternoon …3:00 a.m. in New York. Then the boyz showed up, and down gold went until the London open, a short rally got turned over, and the bottom for the gold price came at the London a.m. fix. From there it rallied gently until the London p.m. fix…and then away it went to the upside.

Silver was the same, except it didn’t wait around for the London p.m. fix before it headed up. Its rally began promptly with the Comex open in New York. Both metals remained strong even in electronic trading after the Comex closed…and despite the strength of the US$.

Gold open interest dropped another sizeable chunk on Wednesday…down 8,387 contracts to 345,804. In silver, o.i. went the other way for the second

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